Everyone has a list of sleepers; Guys who are about to breakout and become the next superstar in fantasy football. Young players or rookies joining a new team, veterans returning from injuries or entering a new system, or maybe a player nobody has heard about may be on your list of potential fantasy surprises. But here's the rub: That guy is probably on about a million other fantasy sleeper lists out there. With millions of people playing fantasy, it is hard to have a unique take on a player, not to mention be the only on in millions to find a needle in a haystack like Peyton Hillis. So allow me to throw out a contrarian look at sleepers:
Find guys you hate less than other people hate them.
Yep, that's it. Perfect example: I hated Darren McFadden going into last year. I thought he was a 5-cent head on top of a 50 million dollar body. He didn't run with authority and looked like he wouldn't be the starter (I had Michael Bush on four teams last year). But when he fell to the 10th round in my keeper league, I took him - muttering expletives under my breath. The rest is history (and hopefully the future - I'm keeping him this year for an obviously bargain price).
McFadden represents an excellent example of how a player can fall from grace and be forgotten. But he didn't lose the skills he showed when he was taken 4th in the NFL Draft - it just took a couple years for him to shake off injuries (though he did miss 3 games last year) and to get his head straight. I chose him because he had upside, the potential to be a top-10 RB even if I was 99.9% sure he wouldn't be. Worst case scenario, I was dropping him in week 2 for someone like Peyton Hillis.
Using this template, here are a few guys worth picking up quite late in the draft , hoping they turn things around. They're not sleepers - call them "Coma Players" - as in, "Dear god I hope he wakes up this year... or I'm pulling the plug":
- Pierre Thomas: Thomas burned a lot of owners last year. Now coming off an injury that understandably held him back most of last year (it looked like a season-ender initially), Thomas is in a 3-headed backfield in New Orleans, sharing space with one of fantasy's highest hype rookies in Mark Ingram. But Thomas possesses skills Ingram does not - namely, he knows the offense better and catches the ball much better. He put up very good numbers for a part-timer in '08 and '09 (averaged 1,000 total yards and 10 TD's) and should be able to get more yards with a few less TD's this year. And if Ingram goes down, there's 12 TD potential here.
- C.J. Spiller: Run DMC comparisons abound here - dynamic but injury-prone, plays on a poor team, disappointing rookie year. But the talent is there and the Bills don't really have other playmakers - Stevie Johnson is one of my favorite players but he's no Desean Jackson and Fred Jackson is solid but unspectacular. Spiller also will be given more opportunity this year, so if he seizes it early, you could be looking at a gigantic value.
- Bernard Berrian: Wow, I don't even think this guy is very good. But he is one thing: fast. He's a deep threat on a team I anticipate will lose more than they win, and his quarterback is basically only capable of throwing the deep ball. McNabb made Anthony Armstrong a viable fantasy option in deep leagues last year and he can do the same with Berrian. Michael Jenkins is the only prototypical WR on the team and, well, we know what he is (isn't). Harvin will get lots of looks, but not the deep balls. Berrian could very well catch 7 TD's and act as a flex player or trade bait for your team - and he could be your last pick of the fantasy draft.
- Michael Crabtree: This might be the best example of a guy I will take (in about the 12th round, by the way - not like you get studs there all the time) and immediately say, "Ugh, I hate that pick". And then I'll drop him after 3 weeks if he stinks. But he might not... He was a top-10 pick in the draft for a reason and has shown flashes. The argument against Alex Smith is valid, but when this team is losing by three touchdowns, they will be forced to push it down the field and Crabtree will get more looks than Edwards and maybe even Davis if he's healthy. This one will test my resolve, but it could also lead to glory.
So when you enter your draft thinking, "Oh man, Matthew Stafford is going to be HUGE this year!", remember this - You're not alone. Being alone, in a game played by so many people, is near impossible. But if you can turn off the Hate Center of your brain and simply go against popular opinion, fantasy gold is in them thar hills...
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