After a brief hiatus (no, it was not induced by a fantasy team of mine going 0-4... but the massive amount of booze was) - the degenerate returns!
Here's what to expect from the blog in the coming days:
- My top-25 at every position for the rest of the year (spoiler alert: CJ Spiller nowhere to be found!)
- A breakdown of each position, highlighting the trends, breakouts, duds, and future pickups
- Random roster analysis from teams in my leagues - a breakdown of draft results and waiver pickups for fantasy teams in contention
- The Link Dump - An assortment of links I find during the week and what they can do for you
I have missed all my fellow degenerates - It's week 6, my friends! Time to put up or shut up!
(No, you're not lucky enough for me to shut up yet...)
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Week 3 by the Numbers
Some people say bad things happen in threes. Others say the third time is a charm. Either way, in this Week 3, numerous "Holy Trinity" (or "Triforce", if you prefer video game religion) types of numbers showed up:
1. Jermichael Finley came alive, scoring 3 times to beat the Bears
2. Torrey Smith came out of nowhere (nowhere = backing up Lee Evans, which won't happen for long) to score 3 TDs... in a single quarter!
3. Then last night, rookie kicker Dan Bailey hit 3 FGs in the first half... and another 3 in the second half!
(Bonus: There have been 33 300-yard passing games so far this season, easily the most in any first 3 weeks. If you haven't adjusted your fantasy philosophy accordingly - do it NOW. These changes are here to stay, folks.)
(Bonus: There have been 33 300-yard passing games so far this season, easily the most in any first 3 weeks. If you haven't adjusted your fantasy philosophy accordingly - do it NOW. These changes are here to stay, folks.)
Coincidence?! I think not! So to continue the theme of "3's", here are the 3 most interesting stats from each of Week 3's games:
New England @ Buffalo
1. I can make a solid argument for Wes Welker as the #1 WR in fantasy football this year. He has rapport with the best QB in football on a team that throws a ton. His ridiculous 20 targets jump off the page - and when's the last time he was shut down? (Not including the game in which his knee exploded)
2. Tom Brady's 4 INTs may look like a big deal, but 3 of them weren't his fault and that is just a product of a team that throws the ball 45 times per game. It also doesn't really matter for fantasy owners - his INTs just let him get the ball back and throw more.
3. Donald Jones had 10 targets, converting them into 101 yards on 5 catches. I don't think he's reliable as a fantasy starter yet, but Fitzpatrick truly is a top-12 QB, it means he's throwing a bunch. David Nelson is more of a possession slot guy, so Jones might just be the big-play guy over the top... and people said the Bills were dumb for trading Lee Evans!
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
1. Andre "Bubba" Caldwell led the game in targets with 12, but only managed 53 yards on 6 catches with them. I wouldn't overreact to much to this unless you're in a deep PPR league. It is, however, a hit to A.J. Green, proving his work will be up-and-down for the majority of the year.
2. The 49ers, after losing Frank Gore and inserting Kendall Hunter, averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry on the ground. To be blunt, I'm very concerned about this running game. I thought Harbaugh would get that young offensive line playing like beasts and they're more like sloths. With Gore banged up, fantasy owners should be very cautious moving forward.
3. Vernon Davis got 9 targets and caught 8 of them for 114 yards and re-established himself as a top-10 TE. The Bengals didn't allow much to the Broncos' mediocre tight ends but did allow a TD to both Evan Moore and Ben Watson in week 1 - something to keep an eye on.
Miami @ Cleveland
1. Daniel Thomas was a workhorse, carrying 23 times for 95 yards, but his long run was only 9 yards. It's hard to tell at this point if that is due to a lack of explosiveness or a lack of opportunity down the field. Regardless, it's nice to see Thomas hold up (so far) with so many touches.
2. Montario Hardesty got 16 touches and converted them for a respectable 86 yards. Of higher value, he didn't fumble and didn't look lost on passing downs, a sign he may get more touches when Hillis is back. I actually think his work load could ease the load enough to actually improve Peyton's value, if not leave it unaffected.
3. For those who thought Evan Moore was a major sleeper at TE (yeah, that's me), Ben Watson's 10 targets are annoying. At this point, Moore is just a lottery play, hoping he gets at least one TD on the day. Watson, however, has been hobbled at points in his career. An injury to him at any point in the season goes a long way toward Moore's value skyrocketing.
Denver @ Tennessee
1. Matt Hasselbeck put the ball up 37 times... in a win! I can't remember a time the Titans threw that much since, maybe, Billy Volek??? Seriously, it's shocking how much this team is throwing, but that has a little to do with CJ2K and the run game struggling...
2. ...Which leads to CJ2K's dreadful rushing line: 13 carries, 21 yards = 1.6 yards/carry average. Wow, this is the guy who rushed for 125 yards per game 2 years ago. I wrote about it in my last post, but he's not himself. Capitalize on this change of philosophy and grab Hasselbeck and Nate Washington if you're in need.
3. Eric Decker got 12 targets, 5 more than #2 on the team - Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd, to me, is not a top-40 WR at this point. I know that sounds drastic but it makes sense when you look at the numbers and the way that offense is playing. Decker, on the other hand, should probably be owned in just about every league (but you might not want to start him in week 4 against the Pack).
Detroit @ Minnesota
1. It's already a beaten, dead horse, but let's re-visit the most alarming stat of this game: 17 carries, Vikings up by 20 at half. Yes, that's the total for Adrian Peterson - not at halftime, at the end of the game. Easily the worst-coached game of this young season. Expect Peterson to absolutely explode next week at the Chiefs.
2. The second-most underused player of this game is, coincidentally, the Vikings' only other legitimate weapon: Percy Harvin. He only had 5 targets (and 2 rushes). One could make the argument that they used him sparingly based on his mid-week illness, but I don't buy it. Terrible coaching - get your best players (and our fantasy players) the ball!
3. Brandon Pettigrew seemed to be healthy enough, I guess! He caught 11 balls on 13 targets as the Lions went to short passing and Calvin over the top (Best was stuffed for only 14 yards on 12 carries). This should be his biggest game for awhile (and keep an eye on the Vikings against TE's, of course), but it serves notice that Pettigrew's 72 catches from last year were no fluke.
Houston @ New Orleans
1. The Texans had 4 Rackers FGs, all from under 40 yards, meaning they were bad in the red zone. Foster owners are hoping his return will drastically help - it's worth noting that Ben Tate has looked much, much better between the 20's and Foster, of course, scored 18 times last year.
2. Matt Schaub had his best fantasy day in quite some time, throwing for 379 and 9.7 yards per attempt with 3 TDs. The Saints secondary gives up big plays and struggles in zone, but I think a lot of that actually is due to Vilma's absence as the defensive captain and play-caller. Expect the Texans to balance things more soon, but that might not be quite as likely as they face the Steelers this week, in another surprisingly good matchup for Schaub.
3. Drew Brees spread the ball around (surprise!), getting 8 or 9 targets to 4 separate guys. The key here, though, is that Lance Moore broke out with 88 yards, a TD, and 2 2-pt conversions. I loved him preseason before his injury, and it looks like he could be a stud in the making.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
1. As I recapped in my predictions review, Vick struggled through the air in this game before leaving. His 23 attempts without a TD and with 1 INT were a concern, compounded by his ailing and injury-prone receiving corps. I will say it again: Unless you play in a league with 4pt TDs, Vick is NOT a top-5 QB. If someone will give you that value in trade, I would jump on it.
2. Eli Manning defied all logic, throwing for 4 TDs on only 16 completions (surprisingly similar to Matt Ryan's line last week, too). I am not liable to panic over the Eagles pass defense, but it's definitely worth noting. It's also worth noting Eli's good game, of course. He looked impressive and is still ownable and startable in a pinch, despite how poor he was in the first two weeks.
3. I suppose I should talk about Victor Cruz, though I would be shocked if his relevance lasted long-term. He had only 3 catches, but converted two for scores and ended with 110 yards. Mario Manningham should be back this week, so don't expect those numbers to continue. The interesting part here is that the Giants have 3 perfectly suited for the outside receiver spots, but nobody to play the slot inside. If any of those guys can learn the slot, his value probably would improve immediately.
Jacksonville @ Carolina
1. I wanted to use the cumulative rainfall as one of the stats in this game, but I'll give you this instead: Cam Newton averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. What does that tell us, other than he played in a tropical storm? It tells us that his team will continue to trust him to throw the ball, even when it's not going well. He'll still struggle, but his status as a top-15 QB seems to be almost locked-in at this point.
2. 5.9 versus 1.8 - the differences in rushing average from Jonathan Stewart to DeAngelo Williams. I can't explain it, but I can point it out: Stewart just looks way, way better than Williams. I suppose you can't start Williams until he shows something or Stewart goes down.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to put up good numbers, despite his team being dreadful. He and Adrian Peterson are silently competing for best player on a terrible team - the difference?: MJD's terrible team at least gives him the ball (24 carries for 122 yards, 45 receiving yards).
New York Jets @ Oakland
1. 3 games down, and 2 of the first 3 #1 RBs (Felix, MJD, McFadden) to face the Raiders have put up over 100 total yards and had solid games. Okay, DMC was a bit more than solid - how does 178 total yards sound?! The Jets face Ray Rice - 3 for 4 sounds like a logical bet at this point.
2. Derrick Mason received the most targets for the Jets with 10, but Dustin Keller was close behind with 9. I think Keller has been overlooked as he is not the most exciting TE and the position is deep, but his top-12 TE status seems to be secured.
3. Michael Bush struggled again, but again was given (you can't even call it "stealing" anymore) a TD. His 8 carries only got 22 yards, though to be fair, that stat is skewed as he only runs in short-yardage. I think he's still worth owning in deeper leagues and even worth a start based on the matchup in very deep leagues. But his real value will be killed as long as DMC is in All-Pro form (read: as long as DMC is healthy).
Baltimore @ St. Louis
1. I already mentioned Torrey Smith, so let's talk about Joe Flacco's incredible line: 27/48 (not great percentage) for a gigantic 389 yards and the 3 TDs. I think the Rams have a lot to do with this, as their pass rush was non-existent, but Flacco certainly showed he's a solid matchup play.
2. I know it doesn't have a lot of relevance this season as he was a top-5 pick in most leagues, but does everyone realize how good Ray Rice is? He got 79 yards rushing - on 8 carries! - and as is his custom, got nearly the same through the air (83 yards). I could make a very compelling case for him being the #1 overall pick next year - I dare you to prove me wrong on that.
3. I wrote about the Rams run game in the previous post, so let's delve into the WRs. Bradford targeted Danario Alexander 8 times but only completed 2 of them and Brandon Gibson and Mike Sims-Walker had ho-hum games with under 100 yards between the two of them. Though Alexander's catch rate looks bad, a lot of it comes down to the high-yardage plays they try to involve him in. He has better athleticism than MSW or Gibson and I like the way the Rams are using him. If you get any of the 3, I think he's the one.
Kansas City @ San Diego
1. Phillip Rivers had a very tame fantasy game - again - but nothing stood out as a major concern. His 7 yards per attempt were "meh" and he threw 2 picks, but the line protected him pretty well and Rivers didn't look completely off. His best games - and rest assured, they will be HUGE - are coming.
2. Ryan Mathews stole the show again, forcing Mike Tolbert owners everywhere to re-stock on booze at halftime of the late games. Of more concern (or jubilation for Mathews owners): His 2 TDs came on runs inside the 10. I still think Tolbert might get the "hot hand" at times this season, but Mathews is one of the more impressive RBs of weeks 2 and 3.
3. Kansas City's offense still stinks, even if Dwayne Bowe had a solid game with 67 yards and a TD. I think McCluster (62 total yards) has some upside, too, but I think it will come later in the season. Dexter is no Jamaal Charles, but if you'd like to draw a comparison, look at the final four game of 2009 for JC (over 600 yards in the last 4 games). McCluster could get more work, but not until the season is officially over - I know, that will be soon for the Chiefs...
Green Bay @ Chicago
1. Matt Forte is officially Brian Westbrook, c. 2005 or so. He somehow almost had a 10-point fantasy day (his lowest total of the year - not bad), despite only having 2 yards on the ground! I find this fascinating, but early warning - catch totals for RBs can vary from year to year, so if the inevitable offensive change happens in Chicago, Forte may not be able to rely on catches for his fantasy value. He'll probably just be a boring ol' 1200 rushing yards guy... (yawn). Okay, I'm kidding, but not on the catch-total thing.
2. Finley stole the headlines but Greg Jennings was great again in this game. He is the rare guy who will always get enough looks to consistently score in a high-octane, spread the ball around offense.
3. The RB split in Green Bay got interesting all of a sudden, as Ryan Grant busted off 92 yards on the ground. I don't think he's as explosive as Starks, but it's worth noting (and grumbling about, if you own Starks). Grant looks to steal time all season, but not this week - reports came out saying Grant's bruised kidney will keep him out against the Broncos in week 4.
Arizona @ Seattle
1. I think this game is the sole reason I procrastinated posting this until Thursday - what a disgusting fantasy matchup. The two QBs combined to go 43/70 for 423 yards, 1 TD (on a "500"-type jump ball from Kolb) and 3 INT. Frame of reference: 8 different QB came within 60 yards of that total - by themselves. Kolb isn't quite that bad - tough division/road game - but Tarvaris is.
2. Marshawn Lynch ran for 73 yards, but please don't think we should be impressed yet. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry against a porous Cardinals defense.
3. I suppose I should mention Sidney Rice, who got 8 catches for over 100 yards on 10 targets. He certainly has potential if he has double-digit targets each game, but it's just very hard to rely on Tarvaris. You can't get Rice cheaply right now based on this game and it figures to be his best for at least a few weeks. I would stay away.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
1. Josh Freeman was dreadful, plain and simple. At least the numbers say so. His 180 yards, no TDs, and 2 INTs make him look a whole lot more like a "droppable" QB than a guy taken in the top-12 of his position. I don't think it's panic time quite yet, but you'd better be able to keep him on your bench for awhile while he works out his issues if you have him.
2. Roddy White got 17 targets (and had 2 drops) for 140 yards, even on a day in which Julio Jones got 6 catches for 115 yards. It's doubtful the Falcons have another game with Michael Turner gaining only 20 yards on the ground, but even in shootouts, it's apparent Roddy White won't have to worry about Jones cutting into his numbers. Also of note: Jones' number were all put up against Aqib Talib, the Bucs top CB.
3. The offensive line of the Falcons is in disarray (or are trying to have Matt Ryan killed). They managed only 2 yards per carry on the ground and allowed 7 sacks. If this unit doesn't improve very soon, Michael Turner and Matt Ryan take a major step backward in the fantasy rankings.
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
1. Talk about ridiculously bad offensive lines... the Steelers gave up 4 sacks, two of which caused fumbles Big Ben lost. More disturbingly, the line could only "help" Rashard Mendenhall gain 37 yards on 18 carries, a 2.1 clip. I didn't like Mendenhall coming into the season, but that was based mostly on work load and injury risk. If the weak Colts run defense does this to the Steelers, can we really expect top-15 RB numbers for Mendenall going forward?
2. Lost in the debacle of the offensive line is the fact that Antonio Brown actually led the Steelers in targets for the game (8). He only caught 4 but averaged 21 yards per catch. His big-play ability fits in well with Ben's scrambling and Hines Ward is not a concern to leech off Brown's numbers too much. Emmanuel Sanders (and the surprising 5-catch performance of Heath Miller) present an obstacle to Brown's upside, but he's worth a look in most leagues.
3. The Colts were "forced" to go with Curtis Painter, but neither QB is the story for the Colts in this game. Joseph Addai, the potential Fantasy Zombie, gashed the 86 yards and a TD (5.1 yards per carry). It's hard to tell if this has to do with a fall from grace for the Steelers run defense, but Addai definitely looked strong and quick. If Painter takes over the reins and can just keep the team from imploding, the Colts run game may actually be worth a gamble. It also signifies a potential breakout for Delone Carter when Addai inevitably gets banged up.
Washington @ Dallas
1. Well, the bloom is off the rose for Sexy Rexy Grossman. His sub-60% completions and mere 255 yards brought him back down to Earth, but this whole game was a defensive struggle. The Skins play the pass defense plagued Rams this week and I expect to see Rex's completions and yardage go up, along with the love for the TEs Fred Davis and Chris Cooley.
2. Felix Jones came alive despite his shoulder injury and went for 115 on the ground and another 40 through the air. He (like all his teammates) failed to get in the end zone but the result is encouraging, especially in a defensive game. I still think he's a high-upside RB, probably in the top-20 still. The shoulder could linger, but as long as he plays, it's obvious he's still effective. He may even be a buy-low candidate if his owner is worried about him being banged up.
3. Dez Bryant only got 4 targets in this game, but don't expect the same next week. The 'Boys have shown they will be cautious with his injuries - I don't think it was part of the game plan to use him as a decoy as they try to force-feed the ball to Kevin Ogletree and Laurent Robinson. He plays against a weak secondary next week, despite the Lions overall strong defense. The Lions should also put up points, meaning it would not surprise me if Bryant tripled his targets in week 4. Buy him NOW if you can.
New England @ Buffalo
1. I can make a solid argument for Wes Welker as the #1 WR in fantasy football this year. He has rapport with the best QB in football on a team that throws a ton. His ridiculous 20 targets jump off the page - and when's the last time he was shut down? (Not including the game in which his knee exploded)
2. Tom Brady's 4 INTs may look like a big deal, but 3 of them weren't his fault and that is just a product of a team that throws the ball 45 times per game. It also doesn't really matter for fantasy owners - his INTs just let him get the ball back and throw more.
3. Donald Jones had 10 targets, converting them into 101 yards on 5 catches. I don't think he's reliable as a fantasy starter yet, but Fitzpatrick truly is a top-12 QB, it means he's throwing a bunch. David Nelson is more of a possession slot guy, so Jones might just be the big-play guy over the top... and people said the Bills were dumb for trading Lee Evans!
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
1. Andre "Bubba" Caldwell led the game in targets with 12, but only managed 53 yards on 6 catches with them. I wouldn't overreact to much to this unless you're in a deep PPR league. It is, however, a hit to A.J. Green, proving his work will be up-and-down for the majority of the year.
2. The 49ers, after losing Frank Gore and inserting Kendall Hunter, averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry on the ground. To be blunt, I'm very concerned about this running game. I thought Harbaugh would get that young offensive line playing like beasts and they're more like sloths. With Gore banged up, fantasy owners should be very cautious moving forward.
3. Vernon Davis got 9 targets and caught 8 of them for 114 yards and re-established himself as a top-10 TE. The Bengals didn't allow much to the Broncos' mediocre tight ends but did allow a TD to both Evan Moore and Ben Watson in week 1 - something to keep an eye on.
Miami @ Cleveland
1. Daniel Thomas was a workhorse, carrying 23 times for 95 yards, but his long run was only 9 yards. It's hard to tell at this point if that is due to a lack of explosiveness or a lack of opportunity down the field. Regardless, it's nice to see Thomas hold up (so far) with so many touches.
2. Montario Hardesty got 16 touches and converted them for a respectable 86 yards. Of higher value, he didn't fumble and didn't look lost on passing downs, a sign he may get more touches when Hillis is back. I actually think his work load could ease the load enough to actually improve Peyton's value, if not leave it unaffected.
3. For those who thought Evan Moore was a major sleeper at TE (yeah, that's me), Ben Watson's 10 targets are annoying. At this point, Moore is just a lottery play, hoping he gets at least one TD on the day. Watson, however, has been hobbled at points in his career. An injury to him at any point in the season goes a long way toward Moore's value skyrocketing.
Denver @ Tennessee
1. Matt Hasselbeck put the ball up 37 times... in a win! I can't remember a time the Titans threw that much since, maybe, Billy Volek??? Seriously, it's shocking how much this team is throwing, but that has a little to do with CJ2K and the run game struggling...
2. ...Which leads to CJ2K's dreadful rushing line: 13 carries, 21 yards = 1.6 yards/carry average. Wow, this is the guy who rushed for 125 yards per game 2 years ago. I wrote about it in my last post, but he's not himself. Capitalize on this change of philosophy and grab Hasselbeck and Nate Washington if you're in need.
3. Eric Decker got 12 targets, 5 more than #2 on the team - Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd, to me, is not a top-40 WR at this point. I know that sounds drastic but it makes sense when you look at the numbers and the way that offense is playing. Decker, on the other hand, should probably be owned in just about every league (but you might not want to start him in week 4 against the Pack).
Detroit @ Minnesota
1. It's already a beaten, dead horse, but let's re-visit the most alarming stat of this game: 17 carries, Vikings up by 20 at half. Yes, that's the total for Adrian Peterson - not at halftime, at the end of the game. Easily the worst-coached game of this young season. Expect Peterson to absolutely explode next week at the Chiefs.
2. The second-most underused player of this game is, coincidentally, the Vikings' only other legitimate weapon: Percy Harvin. He only had 5 targets (and 2 rushes). One could make the argument that they used him sparingly based on his mid-week illness, but I don't buy it. Terrible coaching - get your best players (and our fantasy players) the ball!
3. Brandon Pettigrew seemed to be healthy enough, I guess! He caught 11 balls on 13 targets as the Lions went to short passing and Calvin over the top (Best was stuffed for only 14 yards on 12 carries). This should be his biggest game for awhile (and keep an eye on the Vikings against TE's, of course), but it serves notice that Pettigrew's 72 catches from last year were no fluke.
Houston @ New Orleans
1. The Texans had 4 Rackers FGs, all from under 40 yards, meaning they were bad in the red zone. Foster owners are hoping his return will drastically help - it's worth noting that Ben Tate has looked much, much better between the 20's and Foster, of course, scored 18 times last year.
2. Matt Schaub had his best fantasy day in quite some time, throwing for 379 and 9.7 yards per attempt with 3 TDs. The Saints secondary gives up big plays and struggles in zone, but I think a lot of that actually is due to Vilma's absence as the defensive captain and play-caller. Expect the Texans to balance things more soon, but that might not be quite as likely as they face the Steelers this week, in another surprisingly good matchup for Schaub.
3. Drew Brees spread the ball around (surprise!), getting 8 or 9 targets to 4 separate guys. The key here, though, is that Lance Moore broke out with 88 yards, a TD, and 2 2-pt conversions. I loved him preseason before his injury, and it looks like he could be a stud in the making.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
1. As I recapped in my predictions review, Vick struggled through the air in this game before leaving. His 23 attempts without a TD and with 1 INT were a concern, compounded by his ailing and injury-prone receiving corps. I will say it again: Unless you play in a league with 4pt TDs, Vick is NOT a top-5 QB. If someone will give you that value in trade, I would jump on it.
2. Eli Manning defied all logic, throwing for 4 TDs on only 16 completions (surprisingly similar to Matt Ryan's line last week, too). I am not liable to panic over the Eagles pass defense, but it's definitely worth noting. It's also worth noting Eli's good game, of course. He looked impressive and is still ownable and startable in a pinch, despite how poor he was in the first two weeks.
3. I suppose I should talk about Victor Cruz, though I would be shocked if his relevance lasted long-term. He had only 3 catches, but converted two for scores and ended with 110 yards. Mario Manningham should be back this week, so don't expect those numbers to continue. The interesting part here is that the Giants have 3 perfectly suited for the outside receiver spots, but nobody to play the slot inside. If any of those guys can learn the slot, his value probably would improve immediately.
Jacksonville @ Carolina
1. I wanted to use the cumulative rainfall as one of the stats in this game, but I'll give you this instead: Cam Newton averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. What does that tell us, other than he played in a tropical storm? It tells us that his team will continue to trust him to throw the ball, even when it's not going well. He'll still struggle, but his status as a top-15 QB seems to be almost locked-in at this point.
2. 5.9 versus 1.8 - the differences in rushing average from Jonathan Stewart to DeAngelo Williams. I can't explain it, but I can point it out: Stewart just looks way, way better than Williams. I suppose you can't start Williams until he shows something or Stewart goes down.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to put up good numbers, despite his team being dreadful. He and Adrian Peterson are silently competing for best player on a terrible team - the difference?: MJD's terrible team at least gives him the ball (24 carries for 122 yards, 45 receiving yards).
New York Jets @ Oakland
1. 3 games down, and 2 of the first 3 #1 RBs (Felix, MJD, McFadden) to face the Raiders have put up over 100 total yards and had solid games. Okay, DMC was a bit more than solid - how does 178 total yards sound?! The Jets face Ray Rice - 3 for 4 sounds like a logical bet at this point.
2. Derrick Mason received the most targets for the Jets with 10, but Dustin Keller was close behind with 9. I think Keller has been overlooked as he is not the most exciting TE and the position is deep, but his top-12 TE status seems to be secured.
3. Michael Bush struggled again, but again was given (you can't even call it "stealing" anymore) a TD. His 8 carries only got 22 yards, though to be fair, that stat is skewed as he only runs in short-yardage. I think he's still worth owning in deeper leagues and even worth a start based on the matchup in very deep leagues. But his real value will be killed as long as DMC is in All-Pro form (read: as long as DMC is healthy).
Baltimore @ St. Louis
1. I already mentioned Torrey Smith, so let's talk about Joe Flacco's incredible line: 27/48 (not great percentage) for a gigantic 389 yards and the 3 TDs. I think the Rams have a lot to do with this, as their pass rush was non-existent, but Flacco certainly showed he's a solid matchup play.
2. I know it doesn't have a lot of relevance this season as he was a top-5 pick in most leagues, but does everyone realize how good Ray Rice is? He got 79 yards rushing - on 8 carries! - and as is his custom, got nearly the same through the air (83 yards). I could make a very compelling case for him being the #1 overall pick next year - I dare you to prove me wrong on that.
3. I wrote about the Rams run game in the previous post, so let's delve into the WRs. Bradford targeted Danario Alexander 8 times but only completed 2 of them and Brandon Gibson and Mike Sims-Walker had ho-hum games with under 100 yards between the two of them. Though Alexander's catch rate looks bad, a lot of it comes down to the high-yardage plays they try to involve him in. He has better athleticism than MSW or Gibson and I like the way the Rams are using him. If you get any of the 3, I think he's the one.
Kansas City @ San Diego
1. Phillip Rivers had a very tame fantasy game - again - but nothing stood out as a major concern. His 7 yards per attempt were "meh" and he threw 2 picks, but the line protected him pretty well and Rivers didn't look completely off. His best games - and rest assured, they will be HUGE - are coming.
2. Ryan Mathews stole the show again, forcing Mike Tolbert owners everywhere to re-stock on booze at halftime of the late games. Of more concern (or jubilation for Mathews owners): His 2 TDs came on runs inside the 10. I still think Tolbert might get the "hot hand" at times this season, but Mathews is one of the more impressive RBs of weeks 2 and 3.
3. Kansas City's offense still stinks, even if Dwayne Bowe had a solid game with 67 yards and a TD. I think McCluster (62 total yards) has some upside, too, but I think it will come later in the season. Dexter is no Jamaal Charles, but if you'd like to draw a comparison, look at the final four game of 2009 for JC (over 600 yards in the last 4 games). McCluster could get more work, but not until the season is officially over - I know, that will be soon for the Chiefs...
Green Bay @ Chicago
1. Matt Forte is officially Brian Westbrook, c. 2005 or so. He somehow almost had a 10-point fantasy day (his lowest total of the year - not bad), despite only having 2 yards on the ground! I find this fascinating, but early warning - catch totals for RBs can vary from year to year, so if the inevitable offensive change happens in Chicago, Forte may not be able to rely on catches for his fantasy value. He'll probably just be a boring ol' 1200 rushing yards guy... (yawn). Okay, I'm kidding, but not on the catch-total thing.
2. Finley stole the headlines but Greg Jennings was great again in this game. He is the rare guy who will always get enough looks to consistently score in a high-octane, spread the ball around offense.
3. The RB split in Green Bay got interesting all of a sudden, as Ryan Grant busted off 92 yards on the ground. I don't think he's as explosive as Starks, but it's worth noting (and grumbling about, if you own Starks). Grant looks to steal time all season, but not this week - reports came out saying Grant's bruised kidney will keep him out against the Broncos in week 4.
Arizona @ Seattle
1. I think this game is the sole reason I procrastinated posting this until Thursday - what a disgusting fantasy matchup. The two QBs combined to go 43/70 for 423 yards, 1 TD (on a "500"-type jump ball from Kolb) and 3 INT. Frame of reference: 8 different QB came within 60 yards of that total - by themselves. Kolb isn't quite that bad - tough division/road game - but Tarvaris is.
2. Marshawn Lynch ran for 73 yards, but please don't think we should be impressed yet. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry against a porous Cardinals defense.
3. I suppose I should mention Sidney Rice, who got 8 catches for over 100 yards on 10 targets. He certainly has potential if he has double-digit targets each game, but it's just very hard to rely on Tarvaris. You can't get Rice cheaply right now based on this game and it figures to be his best for at least a few weeks. I would stay away.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
1. Josh Freeman was dreadful, plain and simple. At least the numbers say so. His 180 yards, no TDs, and 2 INTs make him look a whole lot more like a "droppable" QB than a guy taken in the top-12 of his position. I don't think it's panic time quite yet, but you'd better be able to keep him on your bench for awhile while he works out his issues if you have him.
2. Roddy White got 17 targets (and had 2 drops) for 140 yards, even on a day in which Julio Jones got 6 catches for 115 yards. It's doubtful the Falcons have another game with Michael Turner gaining only 20 yards on the ground, but even in shootouts, it's apparent Roddy White won't have to worry about Jones cutting into his numbers. Also of note: Jones' number were all put up against Aqib Talib, the Bucs top CB.
3. The offensive line of the Falcons is in disarray (or are trying to have Matt Ryan killed). They managed only 2 yards per carry on the ground and allowed 7 sacks. If this unit doesn't improve very soon, Michael Turner and Matt Ryan take a major step backward in the fantasy rankings.
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
1. Talk about ridiculously bad offensive lines... the Steelers gave up 4 sacks, two of which caused fumbles Big Ben lost. More disturbingly, the line could only "help" Rashard Mendenhall gain 37 yards on 18 carries, a 2.1 clip. I didn't like Mendenhall coming into the season, but that was based mostly on work load and injury risk. If the weak Colts run defense does this to the Steelers, can we really expect top-15 RB numbers for Mendenall going forward?
2. Lost in the debacle of the offensive line is the fact that Antonio Brown actually led the Steelers in targets for the game (8). He only caught 4 but averaged 21 yards per catch. His big-play ability fits in well with Ben's scrambling and Hines Ward is not a concern to leech off Brown's numbers too much. Emmanuel Sanders (and the surprising 5-catch performance of Heath Miller) present an obstacle to Brown's upside, but he's worth a look in most leagues.
3. The Colts were "forced" to go with Curtis Painter, but neither QB is the story for the Colts in this game. Joseph Addai, the potential Fantasy Zombie, gashed the 86 yards and a TD (5.1 yards per carry). It's hard to tell if this has to do with a fall from grace for the Steelers run defense, but Addai definitely looked strong and quick. If Painter takes over the reins and can just keep the team from imploding, the Colts run game may actually be worth a gamble. It also signifies a potential breakout for Delone Carter when Addai inevitably gets banged up.
Washington @ Dallas
1. Well, the bloom is off the rose for Sexy Rexy Grossman. His sub-60% completions and mere 255 yards brought him back down to Earth, but this whole game was a defensive struggle. The Skins play the pass defense plagued Rams this week and I expect to see Rex's completions and yardage go up, along with the love for the TEs Fred Davis and Chris Cooley.
2. Felix Jones came alive despite his shoulder injury and went for 115 on the ground and another 40 through the air. He (like all his teammates) failed to get in the end zone but the result is encouraging, especially in a defensive game. I still think he's a high-upside RB, probably in the top-20 still. The shoulder could linger, but as long as he plays, it's obvious he's still effective. He may even be a buy-low candidate if his owner is worried about him being banged up.
3. Dez Bryant only got 4 targets in this game, but don't expect the same next week. The 'Boys have shown they will be cautious with his injuries - I don't think it was part of the game plan to use him as a decoy as they try to force-feed the ball to Kevin Ogletree and Laurent Robinson. He plays against a weak secondary next week, despite the Lions overall strong defense. The Lions should also put up points, meaning it would not surprise me if Bryant tripled his targets in week 4. Buy him NOW if you can.
Monday, September 26, 2011
A Look Back on Week 3's (ridiculous) Predictions
As if stepping out on a limb wasn't enough, now we're actually going to re-visit the predictions?!
Yep, I'm a glutton for punishment...
"Broken Dreams"
1. Michael Vick will throw for 400 yards... but rush for less than 10
--- Michael Vick came in with all his weapons healthy, but left with his hand in a soft cast and Jeremy Maclin hobbled with a hamstring injury. Vick was held to 176 yards passing and was hurt - AGAIN - while in the pocket (he also rushed for 31 yards). The Giants secondary looked solid, especially after the D knocked out Vick.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 9/10
"Forgive me my sins"
2. Mark Ingram will score 20 fantasy points
--- Ingram rushed for a TD in the 4th quarter but only managed 38 yards on the ground against a Texans defense playing with the lead. Though the Saints probably were forced to throw a bit more, early and often, than they would have liked, it would've taken a small miracle for Ingram to get to 20 points. The Texans remain solid on defense, despite the story told by the 40 points scored. More importantly, Ingram is at best the #2 RB on that team until injuries strike.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 7/10
"Blowin' in the wind (and rain)"
3. DeAngelo Williams will score 10 fantasy points
--- D-Will looked like the second-best RB on a team that can't run the ball (yeah, that's as bad as it sounds). The Daily Show Jonathan Stewart had a pretty decent game but Williams only managed 35 yards without a score in the near-hurricane level weather, and should now be viewed as a bench player until he (and his woeful offensive line) start playing better.
Score on the Wrong-ness scale: 10/10
"Bills past due"
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick will outscore Tom Brady in fantasy points... but not real points
--- Well, obviously, the second part was incorrect. Buffalo managed to beat their rivals for the second time in about a decade, and Fitzpatrick was the leader of the revolution. More important for fantasy owners, he put up 369 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Tom Brady, however, threw two TDs (and 2 INTs) more than Fitzpatrick, so the prediction is incorrect. Fitzpatrick has vaulted into the top-12 QBs and the Patriots are an attractive defense to start a QB against until otherwise proven.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 6/10
"Marshalled resources"
5. Brandon Marshall will be held to less than 40 yards receiving
--- So he ended with 43 yards... can we just count this as a win? Seriously, I need one as badly as the 0-3 Dolphins do. Marshall still flashed his typical talent but Joe Haden proved as troublesome as thought, holding him in check. What does this mean? It basically means any #1 WR with less talent than Brandon Marshall (there are about 10 guys this does NOT apply to) should be started with care against the Browns... or benched.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 2/10
"No jail break for the Bengals"
6. The 49ers will hold the Bengals to fewer than 200 total yards
--- Okay, so the Bengals got up to 228 total yards. I can't be perfect, can I? The idea is this: The Niners are (somehow) playing pretty darn good defense, as long as they're not facing anyone explosive - i.e., the Rams, Seahawks, and all Cardinals not named "Larry". The Bengals also will be inconsistent at best with a rookie QB and a bunch of alleged criminals at the skill positions. The Niners can easily be added as a D/ST and the Bengals should be avoided unless you are pretty desperate.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 2/10
"CJ(not O)K"
7. Chris Johnson will accumulate over 150 total yards
--- The Broncos defense is not that good; just wanted to get that out of the way. The problem here is that CJ does not look like himself (13 car., 12 yds & 4 catches, 54 yds), for whatever reason you want to attribute. He does not look as quick, and to be fair, the entire offensive line is struggling. Also of note, Hasselbeck has turned this team into a rather effective air attack, meaning the rush to get CJ 25 carries in a game won't be coming soon. I wouldn't recommend selling extremely low on CJ, but owners are allowed to start worrying.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 9/10
"Jared Allen stirrin' the pot"
8. Matthew Stafford will be sacked 5+ times
--- Stafford definitely took a beating, especially in the first half, as the Vikings jumped out to a 20-0 lead. Jared Allen completely dominated (3 sacks) Jeff Backus on the offensive left side and Gosder Cherilus was subbed out as he allowed 2 more sacks (yes, that's 5 total) to Brian Robinson. This line needs to improve immediately, especially considering the Packers and Bears are both on the schedule twice more. Stafford still led his team to a comeback victory and put up pretty good numbers, but the threat of injury is as strong as ever.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 1/10
"The Rams get Ngata"
9. The Ravens will hold the Rams to fewer than 20 yards rushing
--- The idea of this prediction was to go super-low, just to make it more impressive when it actually happened. In reality, the Rams found a way to muster 112 yards on the ground, but the idea still applied: Not many teams can run effectively on the Ravens, and the Rams are certainly not one of those teams. Steven Jackson played but was held to 23 yards on 4 carries and Cadillac Williams looked average at best, gaining 75 yards in mostly garbage time work. The Ravens are frightening against the run, but not as frightening as the prospect of Sam Bradford dropping back 50 times a game behind that shaky line.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 4/10
"No Greene light on the ground"
10. The Jets will struggle to run the ball and Shonn Greene will have less than 5 fantasy points
--- To be fair, Shonn Greene basically never catches the ball and this prediction would have been spot-on had he not suddenly learned his hands work (for more than just fumbling - ZING!) on Sunday. He caught an astounding 7 passes for 47 yards, but his rushing total was only 59 (5.9 points, for those scoring at home). The Jets run game was dreadful and obviously missed Nick Mangold. But even with Mangold in, the Jets have thrown more than the past two years, possibly stemming for (misguided?) trust in the crooked-nose Mark Sanchez. I don't like it, and fantasy owners shouldn't either - if you're going to throw the ball a ton, at least get it to Santonio Holmes more than once! (19 yds)
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 5/10
"Squeaky Gates"
11. Antonio Gates plays and scores 2 TDs
--- Nothin' to see here, people, move along! Okay, so Gates didn't play. Okay, so maybe I was trying to reverse jinx him and it worked. Gates still should be viewed as a top-5 TE, but if you're just now getting a backup for him on your roster, good luck. In all seriousness, the TE position is deeper this year than in any other I can remember, so don't worry about having Gates, just make sure to check the pre-game reports and keep him in if he plays.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 10/10 (I don't even play a doctor on TV)
"Scoreless in Seattle"
12. No player on either team will score more than 15 fantasy points
--- Of all my predictions from this week, I cannot believe this one was correct. 15 points is a meager total for fantasy points on a day, yet absolutely nobody in this game reached that level (unless you count PPR leagues). I really think the Seattle home field advantage had a lot to do with it - remember, we saw guys like Phillip Rivers and Drew Brees come into Seattle and struggle last year. Is Kevin Kolb anything like either of those guys? Not close. Will he have a game this bad anytime soon? Probably not.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 1/10
"Bucs take booty from Rodgers" (You guessed it: I just like using the term "booty)
13. Jacquizz Rodgers will approach 100 total yards
--- When I said "approaching", you knew I meant "within 74 yards", right???... Rodgers got 2 carries for 7 yards, but that was only 13 yards less than Burner Turner gained. The Bucs line manhandled the Falcons, dropping Matt Ryan 4 times. Of more fantasy relevance, the Bucs also tried to take the ball out of the air and keep it, handing off to Blount 25 times and owning time of possession (36 minutes). The Bucs are tough to play at home, but this game reeked of a divisional "throw-away" game, in which the stats don't matter. Look for the Dirty Birds to bounce back quickly this week against the Seahawks.
Score on Wrong-ness Scale: 74/10
"Jay Soldiers on"
14. Jay Cutler will throw for more than 300 yards
--- 2 yards, that's how close this one came to being wrong. Cutler threw the ball 37 times (as opposed to only 9 called run plays) and wound up with 302 yards passing and 2 TDs. He actually looked okay at times... if you ignore his terrible offensive line and the half-dozen Packers jersey at his ankles and on his back. Cutler is a backup in fantasy for a reason, due mostly to the fact he could be knocked out of any game at this point. But it's good to know he can still put up viable numbers against the team strongest against fantasy QBs a year ago.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 1/10
"Isaac left red-faced"
15. Isaac Redman will get 15 fantasy points
--- Wow, the Steelers line is even worse than the aforementioned Falcons and Bears. The line could only "unleash" Rashard Mendenhall for 37 yards on the ground, and you guessed it: Isaac Redman did not get 110 yards more than the guy he backs up. The Colts actually looked pretty darn good on defense, eager to show they belong on national TV (ESPN sure hopes so, they play the Bucs on Monday Night this week). The Steelers running game, on the other hand, is a major concern going forward. Their line is a mess and Mendenhall runs too tentatively to make a lot on his own. If you can sell him high at this point, by all means, do it. And if you're holding onto Redman as a handcuff, it's hard to see him having a whole lot of value even if Mendenhall goes down.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: I would say "6" because that's how many rushing yards Redman got, but we all know it's: 10/10
"Romo-mentum hits a brick wall"
16. Tony Romo will score less than 10 points in 4-pt passing TD leagues
--- Amazingly, this prediction was correct across the board, with Romo scoring 10 points in all formats (255 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). We all know what Romo is capable of and I expect him to regain his form as early as next week.... what's that? He's welcoming Ndamkung SUH (you have to capitalize every letter of his last name or he'll kill you in his sleep) and the Lions on a short week? Okay, Romo will be back in week 5, then. Also, don't sleep on the Redskins and their stout defense. They looked fast and strong all night, rushing the passer and holding Dallas without a TD all night. I would hesitate to start my QB against this team as they put a bunch of pressure on opposing passers.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 0/10
Yep, I'm a glutton for punishment...
"Broken Dreams"
1. Michael Vick will throw for 400 yards... but rush for less than 10
--- Michael Vick came in with all his weapons healthy, but left with his hand in a soft cast and Jeremy Maclin hobbled with a hamstring injury. Vick was held to 176 yards passing and was hurt - AGAIN - while in the pocket (he also rushed for 31 yards). The Giants secondary looked solid, especially after the D knocked out Vick.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 9/10
"Forgive me my sins"
2. Mark Ingram will score 20 fantasy points
--- Ingram rushed for a TD in the 4th quarter but only managed 38 yards on the ground against a Texans defense playing with the lead. Though the Saints probably were forced to throw a bit more, early and often, than they would have liked, it would've taken a small miracle for Ingram to get to 20 points. The Texans remain solid on defense, despite the story told by the 40 points scored. More importantly, Ingram is at best the #2 RB on that team until injuries strike.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 7/10
"Blowin' in the wind (and rain)"
3. DeAngelo Williams will score 10 fantasy points
--- D-Will looked like the second-best RB on a team that can't run the ball (yeah, that's as bad as it sounds). The Daily Show Jonathan Stewart had a pretty decent game but Williams only managed 35 yards without a score in the near-hurricane level weather, and should now be viewed as a bench player until he (and his woeful offensive line) start playing better.
Score on the Wrong-ness scale: 10/10
"Bills past due"
4. Ryan Fitzpatrick will outscore Tom Brady in fantasy points... but not real points
--- Well, obviously, the second part was incorrect. Buffalo managed to beat their rivals for the second time in about a decade, and Fitzpatrick was the leader of the revolution. More important for fantasy owners, he put up 369 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Tom Brady, however, threw two TDs (and 2 INTs) more than Fitzpatrick, so the prediction is incorrect. Fitzpatrick has vaulted into the top-12 QBs and the Patriots are an attractive defense to start a QB against until otherwise proven.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 6/10
"Marshalled resources"
5. Brandon Marshall will be held to less than 40 yards receiving
--- So he ended with 43 yards... can we just count this as a win? Seriously, I need one as badly as the 0-3 Dolphins do. Marshall still flashed his typical talent but Joe Haden proved as troublesome as thought, holding him in check. What does this mean? It basically means any #1 WR with less talent than Brandon Marshall (there are about 10 guys this does NOT apply to) should be started with care against the Browns... or benched.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 2/10
"No jail break for the Bengals"
6. The 49ers will hold the Bengals to fewer than 200 total yards
--- Okay, so the Bengals got up to 228 total yards. I can't be perfect, can I? The idea is this: The Niners are (somehow) playing pretty darn good defense, as long as they're not facing anyone explosive - i.e., the Rams, Seahawks, and all Cardinals not named "Larry". The Bengals also will be inconsistent at best with a rookie QB and a bunch of alleged criminals at the skill positions. The Niners can easily be added as a D/ST and the Bengals should be avoided unless you are pretty desperate.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 2/10
"CJ(not O)K"
7. Chris Johnson will accumulate over 150 total yards
--- The Broncos defense is not that good; just wanted to get that out of the way. The problem here is that CJ does not look like himself (13 car., 12 yds & 4 catches, 54 yds), for whatever reason you want to attribute. He does not look as quick, and to be fair, the entire offensive line is struggling. Also of note, Hasselbeck has turned this team into a rather effective air attack, meaning the rush to get CJ 25 carries in a game won't be coming soon. I wouldn't recommend selling extremely low on CJ, but owners are allowed to start worrying.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 9/10
"Jared Allen stirrin' the pot"
8. Matthew Stafford will be sacked 5+ times
--- Stafford definitely took a beating, especially in the first half, as the Vikings jumped out to a 20-0 lead. Jared Allen completely dominated (3 sacks) Jeff Backus on the offensive left side and Gosder Cherilus was subbed out as he allowed 2 more sacks (yes, that's 5 total) to Brian Robinson. This line needs to improve immediately, especially considering the Packers and Bears are both on the schedule twice more. Stafford still led his team to a comeback victory and put up pretty good numbers, but the threat of injury is as strong as ever.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 1/10
"The Rams get Ngata"
9. The Ravens will hold the Rams to fewer than 20 yards rushing
--- The idea of this prediction was to go super-low, just to make it more impressive when it actually happened. In reality, the Rams found a way to muster 112 yards on the ground, but the idea still applied: Not many teams can run effectively on the Ravens, and the Rams are certainly not one of those teams. Steven Jackson played but was held to 23 yards on 4 carries and Cadillac Williams looked average at best, gaining 75 yards in mostly garbage time work. The Ravens are frightening against the run, but not as frightening as the prospect of Sam Bradford dropping back 50 times a game behind that shaky line.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 4/10
"No Greene light on the ground"
10. The Jets will struggle to run the ball and Shonn Greene will have less than 5 fantasy points
--- To be fair, Shonn Greene basically never catches the ball and this prediction would have been spot-on had he not suddenly learned his hands work (for more than just fumbling - ZING!) on Sunday. He caught an astounding 7 passes for 47 yards, but his rushing total was only 59 (5.9 points, for those scoring at home). The Jets run game was dreadful and obviously missed Nick Mangold. But even with Mangold in, the Jets have thrown more than the past two years, possibly stemming for (misguided?) trust in the crooked-nose Mark Sanchez. I don't like it, and fantasy owners shouldn't either - if you're going to throw the ball a ton, at least get it to Santonio Holmes more than once! (19 yds)
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 5/10
"Squeaky Gates"
11. Antonio Gates plays and scores 2 TDs
--- Nothin' to see here, people, move along! Okay, so Gates didn't play. Okay, so maybe I was trying to reverse jinx him and it worked. Gates still should be viewed as a top-5 TE, but if you're just now getting a backup for him on your roster, good luck. In all seriousness, the TE position is deeper this year than in any other I can remember, so don't worry about having Gates, just make sure to check the pre-game reports and keep him in if he plays.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 10/10 (I don't even play a doctor on TV)
"Scoreless in Seattle"
12. No player on either team will score more than 15 fantasy points
--- Of all my predictions from this week, I cannot believe this one was correct. 15 points is a meager total for fantasy points on a day, yet absolutely nobody in this game reached that level (unless you count PPR leagues). I really think the Seattle home field advantage had a lot to do with it - remember, we saw guys like Phillip Rivers and Drew Brees come into Seattle and struggle last year. Is Kevin Kolb anything like either of those guys? Not close. Will he have a game this bad anytime soon? Probably not.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 1/10
"Bucs take booty from Rodgers" (You guessed it: I just like using the term "booty)
13. Jacquizz Rodgers will approach 100 total yards
--- When I said "approaching", you knew I meant "within 74 yards", right???... Rodgers got 2 carries for 7 yards, but that was only 13 yards less than Burner Turner gained. The Bucs line manhandled the Falcons, dropping Matt Ryan 4 times. Of more fantasy relevance, the Bucs also tried to take the ball out of the air and keep it, handing off to Blount 25 times and owning time of possession (36 minutes). The Bucs are tough to play at home, but this game reeked of a divisional "throw-away" game, in which the stats don't matter. Look for the Dirty Birds to bounce back quickly this week against the Seahawks.
Score on Wrong-ness Scale: 74/10
"Jay Soldiers on"
14. Jay Cutler will throw for more than 300 yards
--- 2 yards, that's how close this one came to being wrong. Cutler threw the ball 37 times (as opposed to only 9 called run plays) and wound up with 302 yards passing and 2 TDs. He actually looked okay at times... if you ignore his terrible offensive line and the half-dozen Packers jersey at his ankles and on his back. Cutler is a backup in fantasy for a reason, due mostly to the fact he could be knocked out of any game at this point. But it's good to know he can still put up viable numbers against the team strongest against fantasy QBs a year ago.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 1/10
"Isaac left red-faced"
15. Isaac Redman will get 15 fantasy points
--- Wow, the Steelers line is even worse than the aforementioned Falcons and Bears. The line could only "unleash" Rashard Mendenhall for 37 yards on the ground, and you guessed it: Isaac Redman did not get 110 yards more than the guy he backs up. The Colts actually looked pretty darn good on defense, eager to show they belong on national TV (ESPN sure hopes so, they play the Bucs on Monday Night this week). The Steelers running game, on the other hand, is a major concern going forward. Their line is a mess and Mendenhall runs too tentatively to make a lot on his own. If you can sell him high at this point, by all means, do it. And if you're holding onto Redman as a handcuff, it's hard to see him having a whole lot of value even if Mendenhall goes down.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: I would say "6" because that's how many rushing yards Redman got, but we all know it's: 10/10
"Romo-mentum hits a brick wall"
16. Tony Romo will score less than 10 points in 4-pt passing TD leagues
--- Amazingly, this prediction was correct across the board, with Romo scoring 10 points in all formats (255 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). We all know what Romo is capable of and I expect him to regain his form as early as next week.... what's that? He's welcoming Ndamkung SUH (you have to capitalize every letter of his last name or he'll kill you in his sleep) and the Lions on a short week? Okay, Romo will be back in week 5, then. Also, don't sleep on the Redskins and their stout defense. They looked fast and strong all night, rushing the passer and holding Dallas without a TD all night. I would hesitate to start my QB against this team as they put a bunch of pressure on opposing passers.
Score on the Wrong-ness Scale: 0/10
Saturday, September 24, 2011
16 Bold (& Spicy) Predictions for Week 3
"It gets ya' here - and it gets ya' right here" - A1 Bold & Spicy commercial, circa 1994
(If you don't remember that commercial, we're not friends anymore)
Week 3 in the NFL season is always an intriguing one, full of crushed expectations, rebounding teams, and flashes-in-the-pan jumping into the fire of fantasy stardom. 7 teams are without a win (though 3 of them - Miami, Carolina, St. Louis - have shown signs of life) and 7 are 2-0 (though 3 of them - Detroit, Buffalo, Washington - have yet to fully prove they belong). For fantasy football degenerates at 0-2 in their leagues, the panic has reached critical mass. For those fortunate (or prepared) enough to be 2-0, a win this weekend could go a long way toward reaching the fantasy playoffs.
With the high stakes and high level of unpredictability week 3 offers, allow me to offer a few bold predictions for this week - one for each game on the schedule... or as my friends call them, "Things we will soon make fun of you over":
1. Giants @ Eagles - Michael Vick will pass for 400 yards... but will run for less than 10
- Vick comes into the game "banged-up", but without any bodily injury. By all reports, he is doing fine after his minor concussion and has practiced most of the week. Last time he played the Giants, they held him in the pocket and collapsed it upon him to keep him in check. This time the G-Men are without Osi Umenyiora and their secondary is in shambles. Michael Vick will listen Andy Reid's pleas to not get himself killed and will pick apart the Giants to the tune of a monster fantasy day for Vick, Maclin, and Jackson.
2. Texans @ Saints - Ingram gets off the shneid (I have it on good authority that is spelled correctly) and scores 20 fantasy points
- Daniel Thomas came into the game for the Dolphins last week and put up 16 fantasy points in a home game that the Dolphins wound up losing. I don't expect the Saints to lose this week and I think it's been proven the Texans can be pounded up the middle, something Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles do not excel at. Ingram has a meager 91 yards and hasn't reached the end zone, but I think this game sets him up for a possible 2 TDs and 80 yards.
3. Jaguars @ Panthers - DeAngelo Williams finally scores over 10 fantasy points
- Going into the season, this certainly wouldn't have been a bold prediction. But through the first two weeks, the newly-contracted Williams seems to be an afterthought (only 43 yards rushing in '11). Though the Panthers have led in both of their first two weeks, I expect them to finally have a game in which they lead but double-digits and pound the ball - it also wouldn't hurt to protect Cam Newton by getting touches for the RBs. Williams is still incredibly talented and will (finally) break out Sunday.
4. Patriots @ Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick outscores Tom Brady in fantasy (but not real life)
- Fitzpatrick has been great this year, making smart decisions and using his receivers to their full potential. The running game and a soft schedule has certainly helped, but his play speaks for itself. Brady, on the other hand, has looked like a cyborg while carving up secondaries. I expect Tom Terrific to have good numbers but I also think the Pats will come into this game trying to prove they can run the ball on team still weak in the front-7. The argument about QBs playing from behind is a bit of a tired one, but it rings true this week as Fitz throw for about 350 and 3 TDS.
5. Dolphins @ Browns - Brandon Marshall is held to under 40 yards receiving
- Joe Haden, based on the first two games of the season, seems to be blossoming into the league's newest shutdown corner. A.J. Green only had one catch on a fluke play in week 1 and Reggie Wayne was held in check last week. Marshall is clearly more productive than either of those guys and Henne is markedly better than either of their QBs (he hasn't heard that in awhile). But I see a lot of Daniel Thomas, TEs, and possession WRs as the Browns try to limit Marshall's damage outside. He should still be started but temper your expectations a bit.
6. 49ers @ Bengals - The 49ers hold the Bengals to fewer than 200 total yards
- The Niners defense, despite the handful of huge plays given up last week to the Cowboys, has looked pretty good, especially up front. The Bengals have shown they are a flat-out ineffective offense when they can't control the line of scrimmage. With the Cincy offense in disarray due to inevitable legal troubles for two of their top playmakers (Benson & Simpson), I think this game sets up well for a defensive, low-scoring game. I can't recommend a single player for either team.
7. Broncos @ Titans - Chris Johnson comes to life with over 150 total yards
- CJ definitely look quite like himself yet (outscored by backup Javon Ringer last week), but one would imagine he gets closer to CJ2K with each progressing week. Denver looked awful against Run DMC on the ground in week 1 but fine against Benson last week. Guess which of those RBs CJ2K is most similar to?
8. Lions @ Vikings - Matthew Stafford is harassed all game and sacked at least 5 times
- For as much as the Vikings have underwhelmed this season, their defensive line is still a strong point, made more so with Kevin Williams returning from suspension. For as sexy as the Lions have been from a fantasy perspective, they haven't faced a front 4 nearly this strong so far. The sackless streak ends for the Lions this week - and maybe the winning streak, too.
9. Ravens @ Rams - The Ravens run defense holds the Rams to fewer than 20 yards on the ground
- Against a depleted Giants defense last Monday, the Rams running game was dreadful. Just when it looked like Cadillac Williams would become fantasy-relevant again, the Rams came out and showed their week 1 success on the ground was more about the Eagles' struggles than the Rams' triumph. Now they face a surly Ravens defense eager to prove its worth after last week's upset in Nashville. DO NOT start Williams or Steven Jackson in this one.
10. Jets @ Raiders - The Jets run game struggles again and Shonn Greene is held under 5 fantasy points
- Shonn Greene has not looked good, even though he managed to get into the end zone last week. The run game in general has sputtered for the J-E-T-S and it won't get any better with leader Nick Mangold out in week 3. The Raiders allowed 14o total yards and two TDs to Fred Jackson last week, but that was on the road and on a short week. Expect the Raiders to dare Mark Sanchez to beat them over the top - and expect meager numbers for Greene as a result.
11. Chiefs @ Chargers - Antonio Gates plays... and scores 2 TDs
- Many people speculated Gates was hurt last week as he was shut out by the Pats, and that speculation gained traction as Gates barely practiced this week. However, people forget how rarely he practiced last year... and how darned good Gates is. I think he will play and he will get 2 TDs in the first half, then he'll be rested. The Chiefs gave up 2 TDs to Scott Chandler in week 1 and he's not exactly in the same tier as Gates, even at 50%.
12. Cardinals @ Seahawks - No player on either team scores more than 15 fantasy points in this game
- The Cardinals have looked fine on offense, though a good chunk of their yardage has come on a few big plays. Of course, the Seahawks are more than capable of allowing big plays, but they're playing at home for the first time this season and it sets up as a game in which their defense plays above its collective talent. On the other side of the ball, who could possibly put up multiple TDs or even average fantasy numbers? The Cardinals are far from elite on defense, but compared to an offense led by Tarvaris Jackson...? Yeah, that says it all.
13. Falcons @ Buccaneers - Jacquizz Rodgers approaches 100 total yards
- Yes, I'm calling for a backup (maybe even third-string) RB to gain 100 yards in this one. Rodgers was eased into the lineup more this past week, especially as the Falcons were put in catch-up mode. Both offenses have shown signs of life and with good weather in Tampa, this could become a divisional offensive shootout if both defenses aren't careful. I think a lot of points will be scored and the Tampa-2 defense, which drops back off the ball, will allow a ton of short-yardage dump-offs to Rodgers in his new passing game role.
14. Packers @ Bears - Jay Cutler plays okay and gets over 300 yards passing
- Now, I fully expect him to go down half a dozen times in the arms of Clay Matthews, et al, but that wouldn't really be a bold prediction, would it? The real theme here is the struggling Packers secondary, now without its main ballhawking centerfielder Nick Collins. I don't think Aaron Rodgers' previous hardships in Soldier will occur again, meaning the Bears will keep slinging it around to keep up. Cutler ends up as a top-12 QB this week.
15. Steelers @ Colts - Isaac Redman gets 15 fantasy points
- Go back and look at the numbers and you'll see that Redman actually had a healthy 11 fantasy points last week. Though many people would point to the relative smack-down the Steelers were laying on the Seahawks in week 2 as a reason he got as many touches as he did, the reality is that he was getting carries even in the first quarter. Most would expect the Steelers to dominate this game, especially on the ground, meaning it is plenty reasonable to expect over 15 points from both Mendenhall and Redman.
16. Redskins @ Cowboys - Tony Romo finishes with less than 10 fantasy points (in 4pt TD leagues)
- Through the first two weeks, the Redskins have allowed 14 points to Eli Manning and 16 to Kevin Kolb. Though I definitely like Romo more than both of those guys, the weapons he expects to have for this Monday night tilt pale in comparison to what Eli and Kolb had in theirs. The Redskins will also run the ball a ton, trying to keep the Cowboys off the field. Of course, Romo is also dealing with some kind of injury... can't remember what it is - if only we could get some more media coverage on it...
(If you don't remember that commercial, we're not friends anymore)
Week 3 in the NFL season is always an intriguing one, full of crushed expectations, rebounding teams, and flashes-in-the-pan jumping into the fire of fantasy stardom. 7 teams are without a win (though 3 of them - Miami, Carolina, St. Louis - have shown signs of life) and 7 are 2-0 (though 3 of them - Detroit, Buffalo, Washington - have yet to fully prove they belong). For fantasy football degenerates at 0-2 in their leagues, the panic has reached critical mass. For those fortunate (or prepared) enough to be 2-0, a win this weekend could go a long way toward reaching the fantasy playoffs.
With the high stakes and high level of unpredictability week 3 offers, allow me to offer a few bold predictions for this week - one for each game on the schedule... or as my friends call them, "Things we will soon make fun of you over":
1. Giants @ Eagles - Michael Vick will pass for 400 yards... but will run for less than 10
- Vick comes into the game "banged-up", but without any bodily injury. By all reports, he is doing fine after his minor concussion and has practiced most of the week. Last time he played the Giants, they held him in the pocket and collapsed it upon him to keep him in check. This time the G-Men are without Osi Umenyiora and their secondary is in shambles. Michael Vick will listen Andy Reid's pleas to not get himself killed and will pick apart the Giants to the tune of a monster fantasy day for Vick, Maclin, and Jackson.
2. Texans @ Saints - Ingram gets off the shneid (I have it on good authority that is spelled correctly) and scores 20 fantasy points
- Daniel Thomas came into the game for the Dolphins last week and put up 16 fantasy points in a home game that the Dolphins wound up losing. I don't expect the Saints to lose this week and I think it's been proven the Texans can be pounded up the middle, something Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles do not excel at. Ingram has a meager 91 yards and hasn't reached the end zone, but I think this game sets him up for a possible 2 TDs and 80 yards.
3. Jaguars @ Panthers - DeAngelo Williams finally scores over 10 fantasy points
- Going into the season, this certainly wouldn't have been a bold prediction. But through the first two weeks, the newly-contracted Williams seems to be an afterthought (only 43 yards rushing in '11). Though the Panthers have led in both of their first two weeks, I expect them to finally have a game in which they lead but double-digits and pound the ball - it also wouldn't hurt to protect Cam Newton by getting touches for the RBs. Williams is still incredibly talented and will (finally) break out Sunday.
4. Patriots @ Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick outscores Tom Brady in fantasy (but not real life)
- Fitzpatrick has been great this year, making smart decisions and using his receivers to their full potential. The running game and a soft schedule has certainly helped, but his play speaks for itself. Brady, on the other hand, has looked like a cyborg while carving up secondaries. I expect Tom Terrific to have good numbers but I also think the Pats will come into this game trying to prove they can run the ball on team still weak in the front-7. The argument about QBs playing from behind is a bit of a tired one, but it rings true this week as Fitz throw for about 350 and 3 TDS.
5. Dolphins @ Browns - Brandon Marshall is held to under 40 yards receiving
- Joe Haden, based on the first two games of the season, seems to be blossoming into the league's newest shutdown corner. A.J. Green only had one catch on a fluke play in week 1 and Reggie Wayne was held in check last week. Marshall is clearly more productive than either of those guys and Henne is markedly better than either of their QBs (he hasn't heard that in awhile). But I see a lot of Daniel Thomas, TEs, and possession WRs as the Browns try to limit Marshall's damage outside. He should still be started but temper your expectations a bit.
6. 49ers @ Bengals - The 49ers hold the Bengals to fewer than 200 total yards
- The Niners defense, despite the handful of huge plays given up last week to the Cowboys, has looked pretty good, especially up front. The Bengals have shown they are a flat-out ineffective offense when they can't control the line of scrimmage. With the Cincy offense in disarray due to inevitable legal troubles for two of their top playmakers (Benson & Simpson), I think this game sets up well for a defensive, low-scoring game. I can't recommend a single player for either team.
7. Broncos @ Titans - Chris Johnson comes to life with over 150 total yards
- CJ definitely look quite like himself yet (outscored by backup Javon Ringer last week), but one would imagine he gets closer to CJ2K with each progressing week. Denver looked awful against Run DMC on the ground in week 1 but fine against Benson last week. Guess which of those RBs CJ2K is most similar to?
8. Lions @ Vikings - Matthew Stafford is harassed all game and sacked at least 5 times
- For as much as the Vikings have underwhelmed this season, their defensive line is still a strong point, made more so with Kevin Williams returning from suspension. For as sexy as the Lions have been from a fantasy perspective, they haven't faced a front 4 nearly this strong so far. The sackless streak ends for the Lions this week - and maybe the winning streak, too.
9. Ravens @ Rams - The Ravens run defense holds the Rams to fewer than 20 yards on the ground
- Against a depleted Giants defense last Monday, the Rams running game was dreadful. Just when it looked like Cadillac Williams would become fantasy-relevant again, the Rams came out and showed their week 1 success on the ground was more about the Eagles' struggles than the Rams' triumph. Now they face a surly Ravens defense eager to prove its worth after last week's upset in Nashville. DO NOT start Williams or Steven Jackson in this one.
10. Jets @ Raiders - The Jets run game struggles again and Shonn Greene is held under 5 fantasy points
- Shonn Greene has not looked good, even though he managed to get into the end zone last week. The run game in general has sputtered for the J-E-T-S and it won't get any better with leader Nick Mangold out in week 3. The Raiders allowed 14o total yards and two TDs to Fred Jackson last week, but that was on the road and on a short week. Expect the Raiders to dare Mark Sanchez to beat them over the top - and expect meager numbers for Greene as a result.
11. Chiefs @ Chargers - Antonio Gates plays... and scores 2 TDs
- Many people speculated Gates was hurt last week as he was shut out by the Pats, and that speculation gained traction as Gates barely practiced this week. However, people forget how rarely he practiced last year... and how darned good Gates is. I think he will play and he will get 2 TDs in the first half, then he'll be rested. The Chiefs gave up 2 TDs to Scott Chandler in week 1 and he's not exactly in the same tier as Gates, even at 50%.
12. Cardinals @ Seahawks - No player on either team scores more than 15 fantasy points in this game
- The Cardinals have looked fine on offense, though a good chunk of their yardage has come on a few big plays. Of course, the Seahawks are more than capable of allowing big plays, but they're playing at home for the first time this season and it sets up as a game in which their defense plays above its collective talent. On the other side of the ball, who could possibly put up multiple TDs or even average fantasy numbers? The Cardinals are far from elite on defense, but compared to an offense led by Tarvaris Jackson...? Yeah, that says it all.
13. Falcons @ Buccaneers - Jacquizz Rodgers approaches 100 total yards
- Yes, I'm calling for a backup (maybe even third-string) RB to gain 100 yards in this one. Rodgers was eased into the lineup more this past week, especially as the Falcons were put in catch-up mode. Both offenses have shown signs of life and with good weather in Tampa, this could become a divisional offensive shootout if both defenses aren't careful. I think a lot of points will be scored and the Tampa-2 defense, which drops back off the ball, will allow a ton of short-yardage dump-offs to Rodgers in his new passing game role.
14. Packers @ Bears - Jay Cutler plays okay and gets over 300 yards passing
- Now, I fully expect him to go down half a dozen times in the arms of Clay Matthews, et al, but that wouldn't really be a bold prediction, would it? The real theme here is the struggling Packers secondary, now without its main ballhawking centerfielder Nick Collins. I don't think Aaron Rodgers' previous hardships in Soldier will occur again, meaning the Bears will keep slinging it around to keep up. Cutler ends up as a top-12 QB this week.
15. Steelers @ Colts - Isaac Redman gets 15 fantasy points
- Go back and look at the numbers and you'll see that Redman actually had a healthy 11 fantasy points last week. Though many people would point to the relative smack-down the Steelers were laying on the Seahawks in week 2 as a reason he got as many touches as he did, the reality is that he was getting carries even in the first quarter. Most would expect the Steelers to dominate this game, especially on the ground, meaning it is plenty reasonable to expect over 15 points from both Mendenhall and Redman.
16. Redskins @ Cowboys - Tony Romo finishes with less than 10 fantasy points (in 4pt TD leagues)
- Through the first two weeks, the Redskins have allowed 14 points to Eli Manning and 16 to Kevin Kolb. Though I definitely like Romo more than both of those guys, the weapons he expects to have for this Monday night tilt pale in comparison to what Eli and Kolb had in theirs. The Redskins will also run the ball a ton, trying to keep the Cowboys off the field. Of course, Romo is also dealing with some kind of injury... can't remember what it is - if only we could get some more media coverage on it...
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Alert: Add Now
Bernard Scott, RB, Cin
Okay, I'll admit, this is not an "add now" for shallow leagues. However, for those in RB trouble or any league over 12 teams, Scott should be your first late-week add.
The hype on Scott spun out of control last season with early reports of Cedric Benson's demise and the flashes of game-breaking talent Scott showed in '09. Then last year happened and millions of people (including Marvin Lewis) forgot about Blazin' Bernie Scott - yes, I made up that nickname but his name is kind of weak and he deserves one.
For those who haven't heard, Cedric Benson reportedly will be suspended for 3 weeks, starting next week and barring appeal. Those three weeks are played against the Bills (McFadden gashed them in week 2), Jags (even the Bengals should be leading long enough to run the ball plenty), and the Colts (yeah, I don't really have to explain that one).
Scott has a ton of big-play ability on an offense showing signs of life (also signs of Bengal-ness as Benson's suspension came down the same day Jerome Simpson received a FedEx package with a few pounds of marijuana). With Andy Dalton looking okay and A.J. Green drawing over-the-top coverage, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Scott busts out a few 20+-yard runs in each game, chipping in a couple TDs. That is more than worth a spot start - heck, who knows this year? Maybe Scott takes over for an aging Benson going into the end of the season.
Okay, I'll admit, this is not an "add now" for shallow leagues. However, for those in RB trouble or any league over 12 teams, Scott should be your first late-week add.
The hype on Scott spun out of control last season with early reports of Cedric Benson's demise and the flashes of game-breaking talent Scott showed in '09. Then last year happened and millions of people (including Marvin Lewis) forgot about Blazin' Bernie Scott - yes, I made up that nickname but his name is kind of weak and he deserves one.
For those who haven't heard, Cedric Benson reportedly will be suspended for 3 weeks, starting next week and barring appeal. Those three weeks are played against the Bills (McFadden gashed them in week 2), Jags (even the Bengals should be leading long enough to run the ball plenty), and the Colts (yeah, I don't really have to explain that one).
Scott has a ton of big-play ability on an offense showing signs of life (also signs of Bengal-ness as Benson's suspension came down the same day Jerome Simpson received a FedEx package with a few pounds of marijuana). With Andy Dalton looking okay and A.J. Green drawing over-the-top coverage, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Scott busts out a few 20+-yard runs in each game, chipping in a couple TDs. That is more than worth a spot start - heck, who knows this year? Maybe Scott takes over for an aging Benson going into the end of the season.
Alert: Watch List Addition
Jabar Gaffney, WR, Wash
I know, I know - I haven't posted one of these in a week, now I'm finally back an I'm talking about Jabar Gaffney?!? Hear me out:
Gaffney and Rex Grossman go back to their Florida days and the game tape shows that rapport - Rex looked for him 3 separate times in the red zone this past week.
The Skins' passing has been pretty good and I don't expect the defense to hold up enough to make any of their games too light in throwing. Gaffney only really has Fred Davis (who I like, by the way) and Santana Moss to compete with - that's a lot better than guys on a team like the Saints or Packers with weapons all over the place.
The other little reason to add him to the watch list: if you own Dez Bryant. Gaffney is available in nearly every league so you could start him late on Monday if/when Dez is ruled out. I like Gaffney a lot more than either guy who could replace Bryant (may eat my words on that one).
I know, I know - I haven't posted one of these in a week, now I'm finally back an I'm talking about Jabar Gaffney?!? Hear me out:
Gaffney and Rex Grossman go back to their Florida days and the game tape shows that rapport - Rex looked for him 3 separate times in the red zone this past week.
The Skins' passing has been pretty good and I don't expect the defense to hold up enough to make any of their games too light in throwing. Gaffney only really has Fred Davis (who I like, by the way) and Santana Moss to compete with - that's a lot better than guys on a team like the Saints or Packers with weapons all over the place.
The other little reason to add him to the watch list: if you own Dez Bryant. Gaffney is available in nearly every league so you could start him late on Monday if/when Dez is ruled out. I like Gaffney a lot more than either guy who could replace Bryant (may eat my words on that one).
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Week 2 by the Numbers
[Each week, I will post a recap of the stats from the week's games, highlighting numbers beyond the normal stats, like targets, usage, and averages. Then later in the week, I will post a recap of each game after reviewing the game footage.]
Week 2 by the Numbers
Seattle @ Pittsburgh
- The Seahawks running game was putrid for a second straight week. You absolutely cannot start any of their running backs and, in fact, even their "lead back" Marshawn Lynch is barely ownable at this point. He averaged under 2 yards per carry this week.
- Ben Obamanu led the team in targets, though it's pretty hard to read into that. I will say that he probably has the most upside of any WR (especially with the recent Sidney Rice injury news) - if Whitehurst ever gets a shot and plays like he did in the preseason, he may make a couple waves a ways down the road.
- Rashard Mendenhall had an adequate rushing day, but Isaac Redman's 10 carries for 49 yards and a TD may have been the bigger story. With the immense workload Mendenhall had last year, Redman may be worth stashing even if he's not a handcuff - he could have RB1 upside if Mendenhall goes down.
- Mike Wallace is an absolute stud, garnering 126 yards and a TD on 9 targets. Antonio Brown was the #2 guy this week after being the #4 guy last week - he had 6 targets. Anyone other than Wallace seems to have minimal value until/unless someone in the WR corps goes down.
Oakland @ Buffalo
- Lots of numbers here. Run DMC had nearly 150 total yards and a TD and Fred Jackson had 140 with 2 TDs
- Both QBs blew up with about 600 total passing yards and 5 passing TDs combined. However, Fitzpatrick's numbers came more from volume - he only had a 5.7 yards per completion average. Campbell benefitted from a high-scoring game but should regress quite a bit as the Raiders run the ball more. Still, it was impressive that he put up 323 yards playing from ahead.
- Michael Bush again vultured a TD from McFadden but only had 3 other carries. He's an interesting handcuff but probably can't be started as long as DMC is healthy.
- Denarius Moore is the story here. The camp hero had an amazing 50-yard TD catch but combined for 96 yards on his other 4 catches (8 total targets). I can't say I'm positive he'll remain in the starting lineup when Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey are healthy, but it's still a good sign and Moore may be worth a pick-up this week.
- Stevie Johnson was his usual self but left with a groin injury. David Nelson was the breakout, putting up 83 yards on 10 catches (13 targets). He is absolutely worth a spot start, at least, next week against the porous Patriots secondary.
Kansas City @ Detroit
- Of Jamaal Charles's injury and the crushing blow to Kansas City's season is the main news in this game, but it is also worth noting that the numbers for the Chiefs were not all terrible. Dwayne Bowe had 101 yards on 8 targets (a surprisingly low number considering the blowout). I still think he's only a borderline top-25 WR, but it's good to see him bounce back.
- Dexter McCluster (more to come on him in later posts) had a 51 yards rushing after Charles went down (24 came on one run) on 8 carries. I don't expect him to get more than 10-12 carries per game, but when you sprinkle in the 9 catches he's put up in the first two weeks (can't imagine it's any less than that moving forward), I think he's easily more valuable than Thomas Jones.
- The Lions blew up again, with Stafford going for nearly 300 yards and 4 TDs. He'll eventually come a bit closer to Earth, but he is definitely a top-10 QB (maybe top-5).
- Jahvid Best's fantasy points may make his day look better than it was - He had a fantastic 66 yards receiving on 8 targets but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. He will consistently put up yards, but don't expect them on the ground, meaning his TD total will always be harder to predict than many other RBs.
- Nate Burlseon led the team with 93 and 9 targets. He is definitively a top-30 WR this year - he has solid catches totals and will get in the end zone eventually.
Baltimore @ Tennessee
- Ray Rice had another solid game - Like Best and McCluster, his value comes from the air as much as the ground. His long TD reception was quite impressive.
- Flacco showed he is consistently inconsistent, throwing for under 200 yards and 2 INT. He is NOT a starter at QB in any league and is barely a bye week replacement, in my opinion.
- Like last year, the WR corps (expectedly) goes with the QB, with no Ravens WR having over 50 yards or 3 catches.
- Okay, let me just say this: Kenny Britt is already my hands-down "Regret of the Year". He looks amazing and he had another game of over 100 yards (135) on a whopping 13 targets - against a really good defense! Top-3 WR potential.
- Chris Johnson was held to a 2.2 yards per carry average against an admittedly stout run defense. He is definitely not 100%, but I would be shocked if Javon Ringer's 10-yard TD run becomes a trend - those TDs will go to CJ sooner rather than later.
- I said it last week and I'll say it again: Nate Washington is ownable in all PPR leagues and in some larger standard leagues. Hasselbeck loves the possession WR and Britt will only attract more attention as he keeps this up.
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
- I can't imagine anyone is thinking it's a good idea to own Kerry Collins, but his counterpart McCoy was a trendy sleeper at the beginning of the season. He had a better overall day than fantasy day (67% completions) but only had one TD and barely over 200 yards. He has to stay on your bench for quite awhile until his numbers pick up.
- Peyton Hillis came to life on the ground, rushing for 2 TDs and nearly 100 yards. His average wasn't good but fantasy owners came to expect that last year and hope it continues. He probably won't face a weaker run D this year, though.
- McCoy spread the ball around through the air, another annoyance to fantasy owners but smart "real life" play. Until a guy like Greg Little asserts himself as a physical stud, nobody is safe to start in that receiving group.
- Evan Moore only had 1 target but it went for a TD. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's a top-12 TE or anything, but he's more than worth a start as bye weeks approach and could become the clear target with more time with McCoy.
- The only real takeaway from the Colts numbers other than the fact Delone Carter basically split time with Joseph Addai (11 carries to 14). He's a possible stud much later in the season.
- One last Colts note: Austin Collie only had 3 catches for 24 yards, but he had 10 targets. That offense tries to get the slot guy the ball - perhaps if Curtis Painter comes in, Collie's numbers goes up (shocking, I know).
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
- The Bucs again went down early, though this time LeGarrette Blount got enough touches to be a fantasy stud. Though he only ran 13 times, he averaged 5.5 per carry and got 2 TDs. Nothing to worry about here.
- The Bucs passing game, however, remains a mystery. Stud Mike Williams only had 1 catch for negative yards and Preston Parker led the team with 98 yards (though 51 came on one big play). I think they will be fine because Freeman is so good, but this may be a team whose team is better than their fantasy numbers demonstrate.
- No numbers here, but please drop Donovan McNabb if you have him. He's just not good.
- I will probably only talk about Adrian Peterson if he has less than 100 yards. So don't expect to hear much about him... But for what it's worth, note that he doesn't just get numbers on volume - he averaged 4.8 per carry.
- Percy Harvin had the game we expected, leading the team in targets and hauling in 7 of 8. He only had 76 yards but as long as he touches the ball, he always has a decent chance to score.
Chicago @ New Orleans
- Jay Cutler followed up a solid game with a bit of a nightmare, throwing for 5.6 yards per attempt and getting battered. He can put up good numbers, but make sure to only start him in matchups against non-aggressive defenses or weak pass rushers.
- Matt Forte again showed why he deserves a new contract and top-10 pick next year. He had a whopping 166 total yards and got 117 through the air - on an insane 14 targets!
- Don't read into the Dane Sanzenbacher performance (33 yards, TD) because he only came in for a banged-up Earl Bennett.
- The entire Saints run game struggled against the Bears ' tough run defense. Ingram got 14 touches, Sproles had 12, and Thomas had 11. It's frustrating for fantasy owners but it might be a three-headed monster until someone (Thomas) gets hurt.
- Devery Henderson got the yards with a huge 79-yard bomb but Jimmy Graham was Brees' down-field target. He had 6 catches for 79 yards on 7 targets and remains a top-8 TE.
- Lance Moore only had 1 catch for 6 yards but I expect him to be a bigger factor moving forward. Although it will be interesting to see how Moore and Sproles work together in a similar role.
Jacksonville @ New York Jets
- Man, it's a shame the Jags have such a weak overall team (I heard David Garrard is available!) because Jones-Drew had another great performance, going for 4.9 yards per rush against a great defense. Deji Karim, who had a surprisingly high touch-total in week 1, only had 6.
- Beyond MJD, Mike Thomas's 10 targets stand as the only eye-catching stat, though Luke McCown only completed 3 of them.
- Shonn Greene had another disappointing day with a 3.1 rush average, though he added a TD. Another reason he's a good-not-great fantasy RB. LaDainian Tomlinson must have set a career low with a 1.3 average, so it was a systemic problem for the J-E-T-S.
- Dustin Keller jumps off the page, racking up a 6-6 catch/target rate for 101 yards and a TD. I thought he would take a step back with Burress and Mason joing the fray, but those two guys combined for only 4 targets.
Arizona @ Washington
- Kevin Kolb posted another yet unspectacular fantasy day. This team will throw all year - he's surely worth a start in the right matchup (nearly every division game, for instance)
- Beanie Wells had a stellar 6.6 rushing average with a TD, and if you're wondering, his long run was only 25 yards. So he still had an average over 5 past that.
- Fitzgerald again led the team in targets (he'd better) but Andre Roberts took his turn as the #2 guy, targeted 7 times. He only caught 3 but we're seeing Roberts and Doucet are already in a bit of a time-share, depending on the situation.
- Rex Grossman threw 2 picks but had nearly 300 yards and 2 TD to go with them. As odd as it sounds, don't be surprised if he ends the year as a top-12 fantasy QB.
- Tim Hightower had a better average (4.8, 2.9 in week 1) but Roy Helu stole the show. He carried 10 times for 74 yards and showed a burst. I talk about Fantasy Satan all the time - don't be surprised if he steals the reins away from Hightower soon...
- Fred Davis was again the story, catching 6 for 86 and a TD. Cooley was only targeted twice, making me think fantasy owners should stop doubting Davis and add him as a starting TEnow.
- Jabar Gaffney also had 8 targets, catching 5 for 62. As a desperation spot start, he could have a big day against a hobbled Cowboys secondary this Monday night.
Green Bay @ Carolina
- Aaron Rodgers's final numbers looked good, but a lot of them came on one play to Jordy Nelson (84-yard TD). He completed less than one-third of his throws for the first time in awhile and was kept off the field as the defense struggled in the first half.
- James Starks looked like the best RB in The Pack's backfield once again, busting off a 40-yard gain and ending with 85 yards on the ground and 30 yards in the air. I think Ryan Grant should still be owned, but he absolutely can't be started these days.
- Greg Jennings was shut down outside of a 49-yard TD, despite 8 targets. Don't worry, he'll be fine.
- Jermichael Finley was held out of the end zone again, but he had 6 targets, which will normally make him viable and give him ample opportunity to have a big day, especially as teams target wideouts in the red zone and leave the middle open.
- Steve Smith had a ridiculous fumble, but put up a gigantic day with 156 yards for a second straight week. This is why you draft guys with talent but disappointing pasts (Darren McFadden and Dwayne Bowe last year, for instance): They can always explode and recapture brilliance.
- Cam Newton's performance speaks for itself but it will be interesting to see what happens if/when the Panthers dominate the Jags this Sunday. Will he still put the ball up enough to set further rookie records?
- Newton's huge first two weeks have absolutely crushed the running game in Carolina, with both backs combining for only 18 yards (yes, you read that right). Stewart, however, had a staggering 100 yards through the air - I don't even know how to analyze that...
- Also in the receiving corps for Carolina, take note that Brandon LaFell only got 5 targets, as many as Jeremy Shockey and less than Legedu Naanee. Please don't be fooled into thinking he is the clear-cut #2 guy there.
- Lastly, I'm worried by Greg Olsen only getting 1 target (though it went for 34 yards). The Packers did a great job last week against Jimmy Graham until late, so hopefully this is just a system thing.
Dallas @ San Francisco
- Well, apparently Miles Austin is still good (143, 3 TD). He's hurt now, but yeah, he's still capable of winning your matchup every single week. Now Dez Bryant owners are just hoping he can replicate the same feat while Austin misses (reportedly) the next couple weeks.
- Romo basically played an entire game (missed the 3rd quarter but had a huge bomb in OT) and put up 345 yards. I can't see him getting worse - in fact, he may get better as the year progresses.
- That said, I also can't see the Cowboys running game being worse, having averaged 2 yards per carry this week. I suppose if Felix Jones gets going (despite his separated shoulder), it will cut into Romo's numbers.
- I'll make everyone a deal: If Jason Witten ever has less than 5 targets (had almost 3 times that) or finds a way to get into the end zone more than once in a game, I'll let you know. Until then, just assume he's good.
- Ted Ginn got 7 targets to lead the team, but no player had more than 4 catches for the Niners. I just don't think anyone should be started (possibly including Vernon Davis: 2 catches for 18 yards) except Gore.
Cincinnati @ Denver
- To start, Andy Dalton's numbers looked really solid. 2 TDs from over 300 yards passing with over 8 yards per attempt. He isn't ready to make major fantasy contributions yet, but in keeper or deeper leagues, he's worth a pick-up (especially considering he's playing the aforementioned sieve-like Niners secondary next week).
- Dalton's good day was owed mostly to his usage of A.J. Green, a budding star. His 10 catches on a startling 14 targets led to 124 yards and a TD.
- Jerome Simpson, on the other hand, blew up with even more yardage (136) but they came on only 4 catches. However, he did get 9 targets and if Green turns into a rookie star, Simpson will have 1-on-1 matchups often.
- I still don't buy Cedric Benson as anything more than a reliable flex starter or #2 RB in a deeper league. This team will throw (even more as Dalton matures) a lot because they'll most likely be trailing often, and although Benson chipped in 3 catches for 17 yards, he remains a weak passing game threat.
- Kyle Orton basically played as well as Dalton but played from ahead, so wound up with under 200 yards (and 2 TDs). He is a moderate fantasy guy but can be bought relatively low right now and plays against a few struggling secondaries in the coming weeks.
- Willis McGahee did exactly what I expected him to: inspire people to call him the starter in Denver. He was the workhorse, getting 28 carries (nearly impossible to have less than 100 yards with that much work) and scored a TD. With Moreno's injury history, McGahee could/should get more work than Knowshon even when he returns.
- With injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal, Eric Decker stepped up (as I expected him to). He caught a 52-yard bomb along with 2 TDs on over twice as many targets as any other Bronco (9). Lloyd remains the #1 guy but Decker could certainly take over the role as the season progresses. He should be owned in nearly every league.
Houston @ Miami
- So I guess Arian Foster didn't really need to play, eh? He got a total of 40 yards on 10 touches but Ben Tate held up his end of the bargain, rushing for 103 and catching 4 balls for 32 yards. He's a legit top-10 RB until Arian fully shows he's back.
- Matt Schaub turned in another mediocre performance, only putting up 230 yards but throwing 2 TDs. I worry about how good this Texans team is - if they go something like 12-4 (not saying I think they will, just saying), there's a good chance he's limited in attempts most weeks, pushing him out of the top-12 QBs.
- Andre Johnson remains the only consistent Texans pass catcher, though Owen Daniels pitched in a TD in the first half. He ended with 5 targets, a nice bump from his woeful week 1.
- Chad Henne reverted back to normal even more quickly than expected, completing a horrendous 12 of 30 passes for only 170 yards. It's hard not to think this is closer to "what he is", though secondaries like the Bills and Pats in that division still make him a viable matchup play going forward.
- Of the 170 yards, 79 went to Brandon Marshall. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline combined for 12 targets with only 4 catches for less than 80 yards. Again, it's hard to think these guys will do much going forward, though Bess has a much higher upside and is startable most weeks in PPR.
- The major news-maker here is the Dolphins running game. Daniel Thomas exploded for 117 yards on 19 touches while Reggie Bush was only used on 6 rushes and 1 catch. It's a perplexing line considering week 1's stats, but one worth jumping to a knee-jerk reaction over. Thomas was only moved down draft boards because of a rough preseason... and last time I checked, a regular season performance is a little more important. Thomas is available in some leagues and should not be any longer. He plays Cleveland next week, too. Bush can still take up a spot on your bench but not much more than that.
San Diego @ New England
- Phillip Rivers had a typically good fantasy day and it was (apparently) a typical day for the Pats' pass defense. Whether it's a lack of talent in the back-end or just that teams are given more license to throw as Brady thrashes the opposite end of the field. I would feel comfortable starting nearly any QB against New England for the time being.
- The Tolbert/Mathews thing gets weirder by the week. This week, it was Ryan Mathews taking the reins, chewing up 64 yards on the ground and another 62 receiving. Mike Tolbert still put up decent numbers based on his 8 catches for 73 yards, but his startling 10 yards on 9 carries stands out. I think Tolbert will be fine but may be relegated to a strictly 3rd-down/goal-line role (still a very nice fantasy role) and Mathews will be the early-down/between-the-20's guy. Until he gets hurt...
- Vincent Jackson would like to let you know he's just fine. Yeah, like 172 yards fine. He's still a top-10 WR in my book, no question.
- Antonio Gates, as I'm sure you've heard by now, was completely shut out. I'm not concerned yet - I think it was just the Pats' gameplan. As long as we don't hear anything about an injury this week, I don't worry one little bit.
- The Adrian Peterson rule applies to Tom Brady - you won't hear about him from me unless he is anything less than "Tom Terrific".
- I suppose Benjarvus Green-Ellis proved he's the most ownable RB in New England, but I'm still not a big fan. His 4.1 average and only 1 catch are fine but nothing to get worked up about.
- Deion Branch is probably the most under-hyped WR in fantasy football right now, putting up another big game with 8 catches and 129 yards. He's shockingly available in some leagues and just keeps proving his worth.
- Chad Ochocinco is still a gamble in my book, but he managed more than 1 catch (2 for 45 yards) and should see his opportunities increase a little bit while Aaron Hernandez is down for the next couple weeks.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
- Mike Vick seemed more apt to stay in the pocket (ironically, that's where he got hurt - not running downfield) and played pretty well. His 8.6 yards per attempt were solid but not great and he threw another INT. If he's not running (only 25 yards), I don't think he's a top-5 QB - Watch for that as he comes back from injury.
- LeSean McCoy continues to impress, averaging 5.3 yards per play on 22 touches, scoring twice. Also in the running game, Ronnie Brown continues to underwhelm, busting off one run for 11 yards and 2 runs for -1 yard aside from that. Write it down: Dion Lewis is the guy to get if McCoy goes down (even though Lewis didn't get a touch outside the return game Sunday night).
- Jeremy Maclin, after being nearly shut out in week 1, led the entire league in targets this week (15) and did plenty (172) with them. He proved he's healthy enough, even if he's not consistent, to start every single week.
- DeSean Jackson, meanwhile, only had 3 catches and 21 yards. He's basically a microcosm of the Eagles offense: He could go off at any time and complete win the week for you, but if he's off, he'll put up a stinker...
- Matt Ryan had an odd fantasy night, throwing for only 195 yards on just 60% completions percentage. But he threw 4 TDs despite Michael Turner's solid night - perhaps the perceived shift to more of a passing attack in Atlanta will be felt most in the red zone?...
- Michael Turner showed that he is still a top-10 fantasy RB, but also that the Eagles run defense is as weak as we expected (5.4 yards per carry). Also of note: Jacquizz Rodgers got 3 carries (5.7 per carry) and Jason Snelling didn't touch the ball except for an 8-yard catch. "Quizz" is a sneaky pickup in very deep leagues and could actually be the real handcuff for Burner Turner.
- If you benched Roddy White and/or Julio Jones, you looked relatively smart this weekend, despite Roddy picking up a short TD catch in the 1st quarter. The duo was limited to a sub-50% catch rate (5 catches, 12 targets) and only 52 yards. For all the deficiencies in the run game, the Eagles passing defense looks just about as good as advertised. I think you should sit nearly all WR's other than your absolute studs against Philly until further notice.
- Tony Gonzalez exploited the middle of the field for 7 catches on 9 targets and 2 TD. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if his targets were cut in half next week in a slug-fest against Tampa's cover-2. Tony G is worth having on your roster, but will prove to be up-and-down from a fantasy perspective.
St. Louis @ New York Giants
- I was disappointed to a degree by Sam Bradford's numbers, especially considering the weak Giants secondary (for the record, it is still weak). Though Bradford wound up with a healthy 331 yards through the air, he somehow completed less than 50% of his passes and only punched in 1 TD. His schedule doesn't get any easier as he plays the Ravens this week, so unless you're in a very deep league, I hope you have another option for the short-term while Bradford gets more comfortable with his receivers and the scheme.
- The Rams' rushing attack was inept, with Cadillac Williams leading the way at 13 carries for only 36 yards. This further underscores the importance of Steven Jackson (and goes back to the Eagles' run defense struggling from week 1). Cadillac safely can be dropped in all leagues based on Jackson's expected return to health and upcoming schedule.
- The Rams' receiving for the night was basically split between Mike Sims-Walker and Danario Alexander. MSW was the main possession guy, getting 11 targets (only catching 6 - fine but not great) for 92 yards. Alexander was the big-play guy, 3 catches for a monster 122 yards and a TD. It was great to see Alexander flash his potential, but it's hard for me to think that was anything other than a flash - I can't imagine he's very consistent as a deep threat any time soon. As for MSW, he's owned in about half of leagues and is worth a pickup, but don't expect greatness. He's a very average WR.
- Eli Manning found a way to throw 2 TD but only completed 18 passes for a measly 200 yards. The TDs make for a mediocre fantasy night but I still worry about him. I would struggle to put him anywhere above (roughly) #15 for QBs.
- The running game for the Giants was a bit baffling, as Ahmad Bradshaw surprisingly had to share the workload with Brandon Jacobs (Bradshaw: 15 carries, Jacobs: 16). No surprise that Bradshaw outshone Jacobs, though, as he averaged nearly a yard more per carry and got 5 catches for 45 yards. I'm not too concerned about Bradshaw as we all knew he could have TDs stolen by Jacobs. He will continue to be a top-20 RB and could skyrocket if Jacobs falls out of the picture with injury, etc.
- Hakeem Nicks seemed healthy on his TD catch (and had a spectacular ruled incomplete on the sideline). He wound up only have 3 catches for 15 yards, but again, I'm not super worried. That said, I don't think he's a top-5 WR, more top-10, and he might not be 100% again next week against the vaunted Eagles' pass defense.
- Mario Manningham easily led the team in targets (7) despite not playing a down in the second half. With the new concussion rules, I would be surprised if he played next week, but he definitely has value moving forward. He could be an excellent buy-low candidate.
Week 1 by the Numbers: A look at this week's important stats
[Each week, I will post a review of the week's stats, focusing on important numbers like touches, targets, and averages. Later in the week, after replaying the games, I will post a reaction to the numbers, focusing on the deceiving stats and hidden gems]
New Orleans @ Green Bay
- Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were obviously amazing, but their yards per attempt were "only" good. Though you will start them both every week this year, don't be surprised if playing inferior competition when they don't need to throw quite as much hurts their stats.
- Mark Ingram carried 13 times for a measly average (3.1) while Pierre Thomas ran 5 times for twice the yards per carry. Thomas looks agile and will not take the primary ball-carrier role from Ingram barring injury, but PT Cruiser will be very solid in blowout weeks for the Saints - He also chipped in with 4 catches.
- 5 Saints got between 7 and 9 targets, another sign of Brees' efficiency in spreading the ball around. Curious minds will also note that all 5 receivers had exactly 3 of those targets fall incomplete, meaning no one receiver was more effective or in tune with Drew.
- Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings both had 8 targets for roughly the same average and 1 TD each. I posted about Nelson last Friday but it will be interesting to compare the two moving forward.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
- Hines Ward continues to be a steady target for Big Ben, notching 9 targets while the Steelers played a lot of catch-up and averaged over 13 yards per catch. He's certainly not a sexy fantasy player but it doesn't mean he's irrelevant.
- Ed Dickson had 5 targets and caught them all (one for a TD), a stat that obviously won't hold up but should not be sneezed at. If he becomes Flacco's reliable TE target, he has top-12 upside.
- Lee Evans had 4 targets and they all fell incomplete. This is a prime example of a guy who will help his NFL team - not your fantasy team.
Atlanta @ Chicago
- Michael Turner averaged 10 yards per carry on only 10 carries, as the Falcons threw the ball all over the field in catch-up mode. While those numbers suggest his burst is still there, he also busted out a long run on which he was caught before he could take it to the house...
- Turner also got 3 catches for 40 yards, a stat history would suggest will not repeat itself this year.
- Roddy White tied the week lead for targets with 13. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez will get their looks, but make no mistake about who Ryan's #1 guy (still) is.
- Speaking of Gonzalez, he had 7 targets, but I think a lot of that is based on the Bears' cover-2 under zone. I would expect the WR's to get more looks the more this offense opens up.
- Kahlil Bell got 10 carries, only 5 short of Matt Forte. Keep that in mind for Marion Barber when he's healthy.
- Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Roy Williams, Kellen Davis, and Devin Hester all got 4 or 5 targets each. I don't see any Bears WR's being anything more than an occasional flex start - if no WR could put up a big game when Cutler was on-point and threw for 300 yards, it makes one think it will rarely/never happen.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
- Colt McCoy's number look rough: under 50% completion and barely over 5 yards per attempt. I don't see the Bengals being the team we look back on and say "Man, their defense was great!" this year, so if Colt can't pick himself up against the Colts this week, I'd say the warning bells are going off.
- Peyton Hillis had 8 targets, maintaining his role as one of the top targets on the team. Hillis will be great, especially in PPR, as long as he stays healthy.
- Ben Watson and Evan Moore both had 3 catches and a TD. I honestly think they could both be viable starts this year, but Moore has the higher ceiling.
- Jermaine Gresham, speaking of #1 TE targets, may become a favorite in Cincy. Rookie QB's (Dalton) and backup QB's (Gradkowski) tend to love the TE and Gresham has the talent to make a leap this year, regardless of who is at the helm.
- Jerome Simpson had 9 targets, 5 more than A.J. Green. This looks like a good number, but I think it might be due to Joe Haden's presence (and leap into near-elite CB status) that made the Bengals look his way. I think the targets split with Simpson and Green will be a lot closer to 50-50 sooner than later.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
- Both Bills RB's only had 1 target (Spiller's going for a TD - his only halfway-decent play of the game). Fitzpatrick likes to scramble and force the ball down the field and his RB's reception totals suffer as a result. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are decent and iffy starts (at best, respectively) in PPR formats the rest of the way.
- David Nelson seemed to be Fitzpatrick's #2 WR target, garnering 4 catches for 66 yards on 6 targets. With Marcus Easley now out for the year, there is potential value here, but not any time soon.
- I say "WR target" for Nelson because Steve Chandler came out of nowhere with a big fantasy day. Keep an eye on targets (especially red-zone targets) for Chandler and snatch him up if he keeps getting looks from Fitzpatrick.
- Dwayne Bowe turned in a dreadful day but was targeted 8 times. He's still the clear-cut #1 guy there, but he is nowhere above the middle tier of WR #2's in fantasy based on QB play and lack of focus.
- Jamaal Charles saved his day with a TD, but more notably, got 10 carries to Thomas Jones' 2. In fact, Dexter McCluster was behind Charles with 4 carries, and he pitched in 5 catches. Jones shouldn't be owned in any league but the very deepest.
Philadephia @ St. Louis
- DeSean Jackson led the team with 12 targets for the game - not a surprise the Eagles wanted to get him the ball considering his contract situation. I think Jeremy Maclin will be in line for more than 3 targets next week as he gets up to speed, especially considering it would be a surprise to see Jason Avant get 7 again.
- Cadillac Williams was great, racking up lots of receptions and nearly 100 yards on the ground. 1. I think the Eagles run defense is soft. 2. Cadillac could be a top-10 RB as a spot start in the next couple weeks if Steven Jackson doesn't return to 100% quickly.
- Brandon Gibson had a 16.7 yards per catch rate against a team considered to be impenetrable against the pass. Sims-Walker, on the other hand, had only one catch. Gibson is the guy you want - he's a deep threat in the mold of Brandon Lloyd last season.
- Lance Kendricks got 5 targets but didn't do anything with them, dropping 2 - one of which he would've scored on. I would chalk this up to first game jitters but be careful; there's talent at TE on this team and drops won't be tolerated on a weekly basis.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
- Nate Burleson doesn't necessarily jump off the page, but the fact that he caught all 5 balls thrown his way is a good sign. He'll get plenty of opportunity in a pass-first offense and across from a stud WR. The TD's will come eventually.
- Jahvid Best had 4 catches and 25 total touches. He looked pretty sharp and they love using him, but I'm very worried about him being over-used...
- Brandon Pettigrew had 4 catches on 6 targets, including a TD pass he dropped and one vultured by Tony Scheffler - I expect Pettigrew's numbers to improve a bit.
- Kellen Winslow was the reliable target for Josh Freeman, catching 6 of 8 targets. Mike Williams, on the other hand, only had 4 catches on 11 targets but is absolutely Freeman's big-play guy. His numbers should be quite solid again this year in his Sophomore campaign.
- Nothing specific in the Tampa running game - all the RB's (and offensive line?) were terrible, especially LeGarrette Blount. The Lions are so strong up front - don't be surprised if you find yourself sitting solid RB's against them throughout the year.
Tennessee @ Jacksonvile
- Kenny Britt had 10 targets and great yardage, even though his stats were eventually skewed by a weird/big play. I can definitely see the argument of him being inconsistent, but as long as Locker is on the bench (and maybe even when he's not), Britt has top-3 WR potential. Yes, I mean that.
- Nate Washington played the possession receiver role, a position that is typically very solid with Hasselbeck at the helm. He's almost worth a pick-up in PPR leagues already and keep an eye on him in other leagues. Remember he was a Mike Wallace-esque game breaker in Pittsburgh as recently as a couple years ago.
- Deji Karim, a player I've discussed recently, got a whopping 17 touches. His yards per rush were quite bad, but that will only go up if Maurice Jones-Drew gets banged. And if he doesn't, it probably means Karim is getting enough of a look to keep MJD fresh. It reminds me a lot of MJD's rookie year when he was 1a to Fred Taylor's 1. Watch Karim blow up in their first matchup against the Colts.
- Mike Thomas is clearly the only legitimate receiver in Jacksonville (not saying much, I know), tallying 11 targets. He's far from great but is worth owning in all leagues.
Indianapolis @ Houston
- We all expected the Texans to run on Indy even without Arian Foster, and they did. Derrick Ward and Ben Tate split the carries but Tate looked much better, averaging nearly a yard and a half more per carry than Ward. If Foster proves fully healthy soon, Ward is not worth a bench spot in hardly any league.
- Andre Johnson proved why he was the #1 WR, getting 11 targets. And Kevin Walter got hurt, allowing Jacoby Jones to enter the game. He hauled in all 3 of his targets and returned a punt for a TD. Watch out for him in the next week or two.
- The Colts couldn't do much of anything, but Reggie Wayne was clearly the #1 target for Kerry Collins (11 targets). Meanwhile, Pierre Garcon caught only half of his 6 targets and Austin Collie was nowhere to be found. A disturbing trend for Colts owners other than Wayne and Dallas Clark.
- Joseph Addai ran for a 4.9 average; not to say he had a good day, but he might be proving he's fresh enough to be worth owning and starting as a flex.
Minnesota @ San Diego
- Percy Harvin had as many carries as targets. I know the Vikings passing attack can't possibly be this bad, but it's interesting to note Harvin will get touches everywhere. He's dynamic but might be stifled by an anemic attack and Peterson's heavy workload.
- Malcolm Floyd had 8 targets and Vincent Jackson only had 3. I would be shocked if we didn't see this flipped sooner rather than later.
- Antonio Gates got 13 targets, as many as anyone in week 1. He is proving why he's the #1 TE, but let's also hope the Chargers don't ride him into the ground.
- The Chargers RB's combined for 12 catches on 14 targets. I love intelligent QB's who are also immobile - helps RB's rack up receiving yards. That said, Tolbert is clearly the passing-down back and should be an every week start in PPR leagues, even if he stops scoring TD's.
Carolina @ Arizona
- Cam Newton's yards per completion were based on some very big plays, but they are nonetheless impressive. He also threw for about a 67% average (about 20 points higher than Michael Vick - just saying.)
- As impressive as the big plays, I was impressed that RB's got 7 catches for Carolina. Typically with young and mobile QB's, they want to run and skip the check-down pass.
- Beyond catching the ball, Carolina RB's were pretty useless. It's hard to imagine the Cardinals defensive line being a juggernaut against the run - be cautious and make sure this run game gets going before trusting either Williams or Stewart.
- Greg Olsen had nearly 20 yards per catch and had the second-most targets on the team. He is clearly Cam's #2 option on that team.
- Early Doucet got all 3 targets given to him, one of which went for a 70-yard TD. Doucet is talented, so if he's healthy and the Cardinals trail as much as their secondary leads one to believe, Doucet may be worth a pick up this week or very soon.
- Larry Fitzgerald, who struggled through inept QB play last year, suffered from another outing of less than a 50% catch percentage (caught 3 of 7 targets). He was smothered all game and Kolb tried to force it in a few times. I wouldn't worry at this point; Fitz owners should expect that rate increase quickly.
Seattle @ San Francisco
- All the stats for this game are ugly, but Fran Gore takes the cake. He busted off a 16-yard but averaged exactly 2 yards per carry besides that. The Niners may struggle to move the ball this year, though Gore will get more opportunity in other games and may be closer to a top-20 RB when he does, but I don't expect much more to be honest.
- Tarvaris Jackson was predictably sub-par but Alex Smith actually completed a good percentage (75%) and may be worth a bench spot for games in which his team is down by 30 (which may happen often).
- Seattle RB's got 9 targets, a similarly surprising stat (see: Newton, Cam). The only way these RB's help a fantasy team is if they are dual threats - this team will very rarely be in clock-kill mode.
New York Giants @ Washington
- Eli Manning was dreadful but Hakeem Nicks still put up big numbers as he was clearly the first read on most plays. I don't worry too much about Mario Manningham's mediocre day - he still got 7 targets and his explosiveness didn't go anywhere.
- Fred Davis caught 5 of 6 passes for over 100 yards, and his long catch was only 28 yards. Some are hesitant about Davis based in Chris Cooley and I don't buy it - Cooley's injuries scare me. I just wouldn't go crazy on Davis because Rex Grossman is still at QB.
- Tim Hightower had a decent day despite a sub-3 yards per carry average. He was involved in the passing game too. But I still worry about what Fantasy Satan (Mike Shanahan) will do if Hightower gets all the touches but doesn't produce as well as the water boy could (in Satan's eyes).
Dallas @ New York Jets
- Tony Romo really had a great game, especially considering the servers and the fact he wasn't playing catch-up or dominating. 342 yards with nearly 10 yards per attempt; that'll do.
- Don't read into the target stats for the Cowboys (except remember that Jason Witten is Romo's go-to possession guy); Tony threw to whoever wasn't covered by Revis... Until it counted and he lost the game for the 'Boys.
- I was actually surprised Felix Jones only had 3 catches. Even if they don't dump it off as much as I thought (shouldn't be surprised based on Romo's ridiculous scrambling), Jines is clearly the lead guy and Demarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't anywhere close.
- Santonio Holmes should have had a better game if not for Mark Sanchez's struggles. He was targeted 10 times and should do better when Sanche is more relaxed.
- Shonn Greene looked awful and the numbers show it. He had as many touches as LaDainian Tomlinson did and LT looked better. Greene will be better in games the Jets are leading, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried a bit.
-- By now, you've heard the stats of the weekend. Tom Brady threw for one-tenth of a mile, Cam Newton racked up a rookie passing record, and LeGarrette Blount was held to barely a dozen yards. This is not a surface-level recap; this review is centered upon stats like targets, percentages of touches in an offense compared to teammates, and averages per attempt or play. --
New Orleans @ Green Bay
- Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were obviously amazing, but their yards per attempt were "only" good. Though you will start them both every week this year, don't be surprised if playing inferior competition when they don't need to throw quite as much hurts their stats.
- Mark Ingram carried 13 times for a measly average (3.1) while Pierre Thomas ran 5 times for twice the yards per carry. Thomas looks agile and will not take the primary ball-carrier role from Ingram barring injury, but PT Cruiser will be very solid in blowout weeks for the Saints - He also chipped in with 4 catches.
- 5 Saints got between 7 and 9 targets, another sign of Brees' efficiency in spreading the ball around. Curious minds will also note that all 5 receivers had exactly 3 of those targets fall incomplete, meaning no one receiver was more effective or in tune with Drew.
- Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings both had 8 targets for roughly the same average and 1 TD each. I posted about Nelson last Friday but it will be interesting to compare the two moving forward.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
- Hines Ward continues to be a steady target for Big Ben, notching 9 targets while the Steelers played a lot of catch-up and averaged over 13 yards per catch. He's certainly not a sexy fantasy player but it doesn't mean he's irrelevant.
- Ed Dickson had 5 targets and caught them all (one for a TD), a stat that obviously won't hold up but should not be sneezed at. If he becomes Flacco's reliable TE target, he has top-12 upside.
- Lee Evans had 4 targets and they all fell incomplete. This is a prime example of a guy who will help his NFL team - not your fantasy team.
Atlanta @ Chicago
- Michael Turner averaged 10 yards per carry on only 10 carries, as the Falcons threw the ball all over the field in catch-up mode. While those numbers suggest his burst is still there, he also busted out a long run on which he was caught before he could take it to the house...
- Turner also got 3 catches for 40 yards, a stat history would suggest will not repeat itself this year.
- Roddy White tied the week lead for targets with 13. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez will get their looks, but make no mistake about who Ryan's #1 guy (still) is.
- Speaking of Gonzalez, he had 7 targets, but I think a lot of that is based on the Bears' cover-2 under zone. I would expect the WR's to get more looks the more this offense opens up.
- Kahlil Bell got 10 carries, only 5 short of Matt Forte. Keep that in mind for Marion Barber when he's healthy.
- Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Roy Williams, Kellen Davis, and Devin Hester all got 4 or 5 targets each. I don't see any Bears WR's being anything more than an occasional flex start - if no WR could put up a big game when Cutler was on-point and threw for 300 yards, it makes one think it will rarely/never happen.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
- Colt McCoy's number look rough: under 50% completion and barely over 5 yards per attempt. I don't see the Bengals being the team we look back on and say "Man, their defense was great!" this year, so if Colt can't pick himself up against the Colts this week, I'd say the warning bells are going off.
- Peyton Hillis had 8 targets, maintaining his role as one of the top targets on the team. Hillis will be great, especially in PPR, as long as he stays healthy.
- Ben Watson and Evan Moore both had 3 catches and a TD. I honestly think they could both be viable starts this year, but Moore has the higher ceiling.
- Jermaine Gresham, speaking of #1 TE targets, may become a favorite in Cincy. Rookie QB's (Dalton) and backup QB's (Gradkowski) tend to love the TE and Gresham has the talent to make a leap this year, regardless of who is at the helm.
- Jerome Simpson had 9 targets, 5 more than A.J. Green. This looks like a good number, but I think it might be due to Joe Haden's presence (and leap into near-elite CB status) that made the Bengals look his way. I think the targets split with Simpson and Green will be a lot closer to 50-50 sooner than later.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
- Both Bills RB's only had 1 target (Spiller's going for a TD - his only halfway-decent play of the game). Fitzpatrick likes to scramble and force the ball down the field and his RB's reception totals suffer as a result. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are decent and iffy starts (at best, respectively) in PPR formats the rest of the way.
- David Nelson seemed to be Fitzpatrick's #2 WR target, garnering 4 catches for 66 yards on 6 targets. With Marcus Easley now out for the year, there is potential value here, but not any time soon.
- I say "WR target" for Nelson because Steve Chandler came out of nowhere with a big fantasy day. Keep an eye on targets (especially red-zone targets) for Chandler and snatch him up if he keeps getting looks from Fitzpatrick.
- Dwayne Bowe turned in a dreadful day but was targeted 8 times. He's still the clear-cut #1 guy there, but he is nowhere above the middle tier of WR #2's in fantasy based on QB play and lack of focus.
- Jamaal Charles saved his day with a TD, but more notably, got 10 carries to Thomas Jones' 2. In fact, Dexter McCluster was behind Charles with 4 carries, and he pitched in 5 catches. Jones shouldn't be owned in any league but the very deepest.
Philadephia @ St. Louis
- DeSean Jackson led the team with 12 targets for the game - not a surprise the Eagles wanted to get him the ball considering his contract situation. I think Jeremy Maclin will be in line for more than 3 targets next week as he gets up to speed, especially considering it would be a surprise to see Jason Avant get 7 again.
- Cadillac Williams was great, racking up lots of receptions and nearly 100 yards on the ground. 1. I think the Eagles run defense is soft. 2. Cadillac could be a top-10 RB as a spot start in the next couple weeks if Steven Jackson doesn't return to 100% quickly.
- Brandon Gibson had a 16.7 yards per catch rate against a team considered to be impenetrable against the pass. Sims-Walker, on the other hand, had only one catch. Gibson is the guy you want - he's a deep threat in the mold of Brandon Lloyd last season.
- Lance Kendricks got 5 targets but didn't do anything with them, dropping 2 - one of which he would've scored on. I would chalk this up to first game jitters but be careful; there's talent at TE on this team and drops won't be tolerated on a weekly basis.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
- Nate Burleson doesn't necessarily jump off the page, but the fact that he caught all 5 balls thrown his way is a good sign. He'll get plenty of opportunity in a pass-first offense and across from a stud WR. The TD's will come eventually.
- Jahvid Best had 4 catches and 25 total touches. He looked pretty sharp and they love using him, but I'm very worried about him being over-used...
- Brandon Pettigrew had 4 catches on 6 targets, including a TD pass he dropped and one vultured by Tony Scheffler - I expect Pettigrew's numbers to improve a bit.
- Kellen Winslow was the reliable target for Josh Freeman, catching 6 of 8 targets. Mike Williams, on the other hand, only had 4 catches on 11 targets but is absolutely Freeman's big-play guy. His numbers should be quite solid again this year in his Sophomore campaign.
- Nothing specific in the Tampa running game - all the RB's (and offensive line?) were terrible, especially LeGarrette Blount. The Lions are so strong up front - don't be surprised if you find yourself sitting solid RB's against them throughout the year.
Tennessee @ Jacksonvile
- Kenny Britt had 10 targets and great yardage, even though his stats were eventually skewed by a weird/big play. I can definitely see the argument of him being inconsistent, but as long as Locker is on the bench (and maybe even when he's not), Britt has top-3 WR potential. Yes, I mean that.
- Nate Washington played the possession receiver role, a position that is typically very solid with Hasselbeck at the helm. He's almost worth a pick-up in PPR leagues already and keep an eye on him in other leagues. Remember he was a Mike Wallace-esque game breaker in Pittsburgh as recently as a couple years ago.
- Deji Karim, a player I've discussed recently, got a whopping 17 touches. His yards per rush were quite bad, but that will only go up if Maurice Jones-Drew gets banged. And if he doesn't, it probably means Karim is getting enough of a look to keep MJD fresh. It reminds me a lot of MJD's rookie year when he was 1a to Fred Taylor's 1. Watch Karim blow up in their first matchup against the Colts.
- Mike Thomas is clearly the only legitimate receiver in Jacksonville (not saying much, I know), tallying 11 targets. He's far from great but is worth owning in all leagues.
Indianapolis @ Houston
- We all expected the Texans to run on Indy even without Arian Foster, and they did. Derrick Ward and Ben Tate split the carries but Tate looked much better, averaging nearly a yard and a half more per carry than Ward. If Foster proves fully healthy soon, Ward is not worth a bench spot in hardly any league.
- Andre Johnson proved why he was the #1 WR, getting 11 targets. And Kevin Walter got hurt, allowing Jacoby Jones to enter the game. He hauled in all 3 of his targets and returned a punt for a TD. Watch out for him in the next week or two.
- The Colts couldn't do much of anything, but Reggie Wayne was clearly the #1 target for Kerry Collins (11 targets). Meanwhile, Pierre Garcon caught only half of his 6 targets and Austin Collie was nowhere to be found. A disturbing trend for Colts owners other than Wayne and Dallas Clark.
- Joseph Addai ran for a 4.9 average; not to say he had a good day, but he might be proving he's fresh enough to be worth owning and starting as a flex.
Minnesota @ San Diego
- Percy Harvin had as many carries as targets. I know the Vikings passing attack can't possibly be this bad, but it's interesting to note Harvin will get touches everywhere. He's dynamic but might be stifled by an anemic attack and Peterson's heavy workload.
- Malcolm Floyd had 8 targets and Vincent Jackson only had 3. I would be shocked if we didn't see this flipped sooner rather than later.
- Antonio Gates got 13 targets, as many as anyone in week 1. He is proving why he's the #1 TE, but let's also hope the Chargers don't ride him into the ground.
- The Chargers RB's combined for 12 catches on 14 targets. I love intelligent QB's who are also immobile - helps RB's rack up receiving yards. That said, Tolbert is clearly the passing-down back and should be an every week start in PPR leagues, even if he stops scoring TD's.
Carolina @ Arizona
- Cam Newton's yards per completion were based on some very big plays, but they are nonetheless impressive. He also threw for about a 67% average (about 20 points higher than Michael Vick - just saying.)
- As impressive as the big plays, I was impressed that RB's got 7 catches for Carolina. Typically with young and mobile QB's, they want to run and skip the check-down pass.
- Beyond catching the ball, Carolina RB's were pretty useless. It's hard to imagine the Cardinals defensive line being a juggernaut against the run - be cautious and make sure this run game gets going before trusting either Williams or Stewart.
- Greg Olsen had nearly 20 yards per catch and had the second-most targets on the team. He is clearly Cam's #2 option on that team.
- Early Doucet got all 3 targets given to him, one of which went for a 70-yard TD. Doucet is talented, so if he's healthy and the Cardinals trail as much as their secondary leads one to believe, Doucet may be worth a pick up this week or very soon.
- Larry Fitzgerald, who struggled through inept QB play last year, suffered from another outing of less than a 50% catch percentage (caught 3 of 7 targets). He was smothered all game and Kolb tried to force it in a few times. I wouldn't worry at this point; Fitz owners should expect that rate increase quickly.
Seattle @ San Francisco
- All the stats for this game are ugly, but Fran Gore takes the cake. He busted off a 16-yard but averaged exactly 2 yards per carry besides that. The Niners may struggle to move the ball this year, though Gore will get more opportunity in other games and may be closer to a top-20 RB when he does, but I don't expect much more to be honest.
- Tarvaris Jackson was predictably sub-par but Alex Smith actually completed a good percentage (75%) and may be worth a bench spot for games in which his team is down by 30 (which may happen often).
- Seattle RB's got 9 targets, a similarly surprising stat (see: Newton, Cam). The only way these RB's help a fantasy team is if they are dual threats - this team will very rarely be in clock-kill mode.
New York Giants @ Washington
- Eli Manning was dreadful but Hakeem Nicks still put up big numbers as he was clearly the first read on most plays. I don't worry too much about Mario Manningham's mediocre day - he still got 7 targets and his explosiveness didn't go anywhere.
- Fred Davis caught 5 of 6 passes for over 100 yards, and his long catch was only 28 yards. Some are hesitant about Davis based in Chris Cooley and I don't buy it - Cooley's injuries scare me. I just wouldn't go crazy on Davis because Rex Grossman is still at QB.
- Tim Hightower had a decent day despite a sub-3 yards per carry average. He was involved in the passing game too. But I still worry about what Fantasy Satan (Mike Shanahan) will do if Hightower gets all the touches but doesn't produce as well as the water boy could (in Satan's eyes).
Dallas @ New York Jets
- Tony Romo really had a great game, especially considering the servers and the fact he wasn't playing catch-up or dominating. 342 yards with nearly 10 yards per attempt; that'll do.
- Don't read into the target stats for the Cowboys (except remember that Jason Witten is Romo's go-to possession guy); Tony threw to whoever wasn't covered by Revis... Until it counted and he lost the game for the 'Boys.
- I was actually surprised Felix Jones only had 3 catches. Even if they don't dump it off as much as I thought (shouldn't be surprised based on Romo's ridiculous scrambling), Jines is clearly the lead guy and Demarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't anywhere close.
- Santonio Holmes should have had a better game if not for Mark Sanchez's struggles. He was targeted 10 times and should do better when Sanche is more relaxed.
- Shonn Greene looked awful and the numbers show it. He had as many touches as LaDainian Tomlinson did and LT looked better. Greene will be better in games the Jets are leading, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried a bit.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Alert: Add Now
Cadillac Williams, RB, StL
Steve Spagnuolo was just reported as saying there is a good chance Steven Jackson misses the week 2 Monday night game against the Giants. Caddy should get the vast majority of the carries next week and have a decent game, especially since he has a much better chance of scoring against the Giants than the Eagles when playing in catch-up mode. But Cadillac is not a "must-add" just because of one week; I think there is a good chance Jackson will be protected by the coaching staff and he could miss additional time because of it. Caddy should get plenty of opportunity, even when Jackson returns, assuming the Rams don't want to wear out their workhorse.
Steve Spagnuolo was just reported as saying there is a good chance Steven Jackson misses the week 2 Monday night game against the Giants. Caddy should get the vast majority of the carries next week and have a decent game, especially since he has a much better chance of scoring against the Giants than the Eagles when playing in catch-up mode. But Cadillac is not a "must-add" just because of one week; I think there is a good chance Jackson will be protected by the coaching staff and he could miss additional time because of it. Caddy should get plenty of opportunity, even when Jackson returns, assuming the Rams don't want to wear out their workhorse.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
My Fantasy Football Tool Kit: My favorite fantasy sites, writers, and resources
Thankfully for everyone involved, this list of my favorite things does not involve whiskers on kittens. These are my go-to resources, the guys I trust the most, and people/organizations to whom I will be posting links on an ongoing basis. We all have our stand-by's - here are mine:
RotoWorld
If there is one site I can't live without, it's RotoWorld. But not for their amazing articles or expert advice - their contributors are solid but unspectacular and it drives me nuts that their rankings are behind a pay wall. But the constant stream of fantasy-slanted player news makes this site worth checking about a dozen times a day (seriously).
ESPN Fantasy Football
As much as we sports fans hear about the "Four Letter Network", their sheer size and amount of resources makes them a viable place for fantasy information. They post projections every week - frankly, I never look at them and wouldn't recommend it. They do, however, strive at posting interesting articles, especially in their "Draft Kit". The "32 Q's" series has a couple clunkers, but for the most part, they are interesting and relevant reads.
The Fantasy Focus Football podcast is a good listen if you have a long drive or some downtime during the day. It has its fair share of shtick, but it's relatively entertaining to the typical degenerate and has some good information.
Of the ESPN writers, Christopher Harris takes the cake for me. Nate Ravitz, Eric Karabell, Matthew Berry, et al are good enough writers, but I tend to agree with the rationale used by Harris more often than any other ESPN contributor. ESPN also employs a stable of writers who are part fantasy, part general football, like KC Joyner. Joyner in particular holds a high level of esteem within in the industry... but I still don't know why. He may be a bright football mind, but his recommendations for fantasy are typically far from accurate.
Pro Football Talk
Mike Florio and Gregg Rosenthal do an excellent job of keeping football fans posted on news, right as it happens, and they're nearly 100% accurate with their reports (I fell for PFT when they helped me win an office pool on which team would draft Tim Tebow last year). There isn't an fantasy spin on their posts (though there's a link to RotoWorld on the site), but we all know general information is invaluable to the fantasy football degenerate.
Football Outsiders
I consider myself a stat/math geek and even I don't understand all the calculations and permutations involved with FBO's metrics. But I can tell you that they are excellent football minds and they seem to be even more passionate than all the other competitors they face on the web. Every opinion is based on legitimate evidence, not just "hunches" and the site has the perfect combination of fantasy and non-fantasy focus. Beyond projections and fantasy spin, FBO has metrics for special teams, defenses, and even the likelihood of a team's injuries increasing. If you can understand just the basics of how they come up with the numbers, you'll have more than enough reason to visit the Outsiders a few times a week.
Dishonorable Mention
CBS Fantasy Football's Leagues - The articles on the site (particularly Jamie Eisenberg) are always decent quality, but the site is absolutely useless for managing a team/league. The site is nearly impossible to navigate, even down to something as simple as changing your team name. There's no watch list and even when you try to add a player, the only simple way to sort them is alphabetical. Sorry CBS, but I don't want to add Erik Ainge at QB... but thanks.
RotoWorld
If there is one site I can't live without, it's RotoWorld. But not for their amazing articles or expert advice - their contributors are solid but unspectacular and it drives me nuts that their rankings are behind a pay wall. But the constant stream of fantasy-slanted player news makes this site worth checking about a dozen times a day (seriously).
ESPN Fantasy Football
As much as we sports fans hear about the "Four Letter Network", their sheer size and amount of resources makes them a viable place for fantasy information. They post projections every week - frankly, I never look at them and wouldn't recommend it. They do, however, strive at posting interesting articles, especially in their "Draft Kit". The "32 Q's" series has a couple clunkers, but for the most part, they are interesting and relevant reads.
The Fantasy Focus Football podcast is a good listen if you have a long drive or some downtime during the day. It has its fair share of shtick, but it's relatively entertaining to the typical degenerate and has some good information.
Of the ESPN writers, Christopher Harris takes the cake for me. Nate Ravitz, Eric Karabell, Matthew Berry, et al are good enough writers, but I tend to agree with the rationale used by Harris more often than any other ESPN contributor. ESPN also employs a stable of writers who are part fantasy, part general football, like KC Joyner. Joyner in particular holds a high level of esteem within in the industry... but I still don't know why. He may be a bright football mind, but his recommendations for fantasy are typically far from accurate.
Pro Football Talk
Mike Florio and Gregg Rosenthal do an excellent job of keeping football fans posted on news, right as it happens, and they're nearly 100% accurate with their reports (I fell for PFT when they helped me win an office pool on which team would draft Tim Tebow last year). There isn't an fantasy spin on their posts (though there's a link to RotoWorld on the site), but we all know general information is invaluable to the fantasy football degenerate.
Football Outsiders
I consider myself a stat/math geek and even I don't understand all the calculations and permutations involved with FBO's metrics. But I can tell you that they are excellent football minds and they seem to be even more passionate than all the other competitors they face on the web. Every opinion is based on legitimate evidence, not just "hunches" and the site has the perfect combination of fantasy and non-fantasy focus. Beyond projections and fantasy spin, FBO has metrics for special teams, defenses, and even the likelihood of a team's injuries increasing. If you can understand just the basics of how they come up with the numbers, you'll have more than enough reason to visit the Outsiders a few times a week.
Dishonorable Mention
CBS Fantasy Football's Leagues - The articles on the site (particularly Jamie Eisenberg) are always decent quality, but the site is absolutely useless for managing a team/league. The site is nearly impossible to navigate, even down to something as simple as changing your team name. There's no watch list and even when you try to add a player, the only simple way to sort them is alphabetical. Sorry CBS, but I don't want to add Erik Ainge at QB... but thanks.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Opening Night: New Orleans v. Green Bay RUNNING DIARY GOODNESS!!!
5:37pst - Wow, another former "Idol"?? Aren't we done with that yet?
5:41pst - First kickoff of the season wasn't a touchback. Keep an eye on that
5:42pst - Did anyone hear something like a muffled sneeze that past two plays? What the hell is that?...
5:44pst - Wow, nice (ballsy) blitz from Gregg Williams there. Also, James Starks missing a potential sack-saving block - he'll need to fix that if he's going to get more catches than Ryan Grant this year.
5:46pst - Huge pass to Nelson, Grant makes a great pass block. Important side note: If Green Bay goes with a lot of this no-huddle, we could see the Packers just turn into the Saints of the past few years - No main target, just a bunch of good players with a great "point guard", who just wind up cutting into each other's touches.
5:50pst - I have Brees in the two leagues I care the most about. I could care less about the Saints (the Pack are actually my other team) but I am legitimately nervous right now...
5:55pst - The Pack go with a 5-receiver empty backfield set and James Jones is absent (Quarless is in but I can't imagine he has fantasy relevance as long as Finley's healthy). Now Nelson catches the TD and I would think Nelson has entered 2008 Steve Breaston or 2010 (healthy) Austin Collie territory. He can be a viable flex start nearly every week, I think.
6:08pst - Meachem beats the best corner on the field (Williams is actually even better than Woodson in 1-on-1) and scores on a big play. Is it that far-fetched to think Meachem is the #1 guy in New Orleans this year?
6:17pst - I hate hyperbole, especially when it's my fault. But Rodgers definitely looks a bit like 2007 Tom Brady right now...
6:48pst - Okay, so I should have added Chipotle to my list of favorite things. Break over.
6:49pst - Grant is narrowly outplaying Starks - I think this combo is really only useful if one of them gets banged up or one really shows the "hot hand" for a couple weeks at a time.
6:56pst - And Starks scores. Okay, fine then.
7:07pst - Wow what a first half. Two of the the three best QB's in the game playing in the same game, opening the season. Thanks, NFL. (I feel dirty saying that)
7:31pst - File under "Moral Victory": Brees is at least trying really hard to get it to Graham. Keep watching.
7:37pst - Randall Cobb kickoff return - early Play of the Year candidate
7:42pst - Cue the circus music, this game is a show. On the subject of circus, I've heard the Saints offense referred to as a "Cirque du Soleil" offense. Whoever came up with that is a genius; love it.
7:56pst - Tie for most exciting play in football: 4th & 1 and an onside kicks. Saints try to go to Graham again and it doesn't work. Again. Turnover on downs.
8:02pst - The concern about Finley eating into Jennings's number seems unfounded to this point. I know, you can tell that by watching - just wanted to make sure to mention it.
8:03pst - Bud Light commercials are literally never funny twice. Never. Normally not funny the first time, either.
8:18pst - The sacks in which Brees and the Saints offense look lost will be fixed sooner rather than later, you have to assume. This is much more the Packers' defensive superiority, not Saints' problems.
8:20pst - Has anyone noticed how often Finley is split out wide? From the naked eye, it seems like almost half his snaps, though he hasn't gotten many looks tonight. It definitely looks like a run set, but it could definitely turn into a favorite Packers formation in the red zone.
8:32pst - Man these QB's are good - I would be pretty surprised if they weren't 1-2 in fantasy points for the year
8:38pst - See? You figured the Saints wouldn't recover that onside kick, but it was damn fun
8:45pst - Punt for GB, setting up the feast/famine of a last-minute drive for your fantasy QB from deep in his own territory. Brees couldn easily rack up some garbage yards, but he could also get a pick forcing the ball or on a last-second Hail Mary. Let's see what happens.
8:49pst - Like the NFL was scripting the whole damn thing. Incredible.
I'm beat. If that's not the game of the year at the end of the season, we have one hell of a season in front of us.
5:41pst - First kickoff of the season wasn't a touchback. Keep an eye on that
5:42pst - Did anyone hear something like a muffled sneeze that past two plays? What the hell is that?...
5:44pst - Wow, nice (ballsy) blitz from Gregg Williams there. Also, James Starks missing a potential sack-saving block - he'll need to fix that if he's going to get more catches than Ryan Grant this year.
5:46pst - Huge pass to Nelson, Grant makes a great pass block. Important side note: If Green Bay goes with a lot of this no-huddle, we could see the Packers just turn into the Saints of the past few years - No main target, just a bunch of good players with a great "point guard", who just wind up cutting into each other's touches.
5:50pst - I have Brees in the two leagues I care the most about. I could care less about the Saints (the Pack are actually my other team) but I am legitimately nervous right now...
5:55pst - The Pack go with a 5-receiver empty backfield set and James Jones is absent (Quarless is in but I can't imagine he has fantasy relevance as long as Finley's healthy). Now Nelson catches the TD and I would think Nelson has entered 2008 Steve Breaston or 2010 (healthy) Austin Collie territory. He can be a viable flex start nearly every week, I think.
6:08pst - Meachem beats the best corner on the field (Williams is actually even better than Woodson in 1-on-1) and scores on a big play. Is it that far-fetched to think Meachem is the #1 guy in New Orleans this year?
6:17pst - I hate hyperbole, especially when it's my fault. But Rodgers definitely looks a bit like 2007 Tom Brady right now...
6:48pst - Okay, so I should have added Chipotle to my list of favorite things. Break over.
6:49pst - Grant is narrowly outplaying Starks - I think this combo is really only useful if one of them gets banged up or one really shows the "hot hand" for a couple weeks at a time.
6:56pst - And Starks scores. Okay, fine then.
7:07pst - Wow what a first half. Two of the the three best QB's in the game playing in the same game, opening the season. Thanks, NFL. (I feel dirty saying that)
7:31pst - File under "Moral Victory": Brees is at least trying really hard to get it to Graham. Keep watching.
7:37pst - Randall Cobb kickoff return - early Play of the Year candidate
7:42pst - Cue the circus music, this game is a show. On the subject of circus, I've heard the Saints offense referred to as a "Cirque du Soleil" offense. Whoever came up with that is a genius; love it.
7:56pst - Tie for most exciting play in football: 4th & 1 and an onside kicks. Saints try to go to Graham again and it doesn't work. Again. Turnover on downs.
8:02pst - The concern about Finley eating into Jennings's number seems unfounded to this point. I know, you can tell that by watching - just wanted to make sure to mention it.
8:03pst - Bud Light commercials are literally never funny twice. Never. Normally not funny the first time, either.
8:18pst - The sacks in which Brees and the Saints offense look lost will be fixed sooner rather than later, you have to assume. This is much more the Packers' defensive superiority, not Saints' problems.
8:20pst - Has anyone noticed how often Finley is split out wide? From the naked eye, it seems like almost half his snaps, though he hasn't gotten many looks tonight. It definitely looks like a run set, but it could definitely turn into a favorite Packers formation in the red zone.
8:32pst - Man these QB's are good - I would be pretty surprised if they weren't 1-2 in fantasy points for the year
8:38pst - See? You figured the Saints wouldn't recover that onside kick, but it was damn fun
8:45pst - Punt for GB, setting up the feast/famine of a last-minute drive for your fantasy QB from deep in his own territory. Brees couldn easily rack up some garbage yards, but he could also get a pick forcing the ball or on a last-second Hail Mary. Let's see what happens.
8:49pst - Like the NFL was scripting the whole damn thing. Incredible.
I'm beat. If that's not the game of the year at the end of the season, we have one hell of a season in front of us.
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