"It gets ya' here - and it gets ya' right here" - A1 Bold & Spicy commercial, circa 1994
(If you don't remember that commercial, we're not friends anymore)
Week 3 in the NFL season is always an intriguing one, full of crushed expectations, rebounding teams, and flashes-in-the-pan jumping into the fire of fantasy stardom. 7 teams are without a win (though 3 of them - Miami, Carolina, St. Louis - have shown signs of life) and 7 are 2-0 (though 3 of them - Detroit, Buffalo, Washington - have yet to fully prove they belong). For fantasy football degenerates at 0-2 in their leagues, the panic has reached critical mass. For those fortunate (or prepared) enough to be 2-0, a win this weekend could go a long way toward reaching the fantasy playoffs.
With the high stakes and high level of unpredictability week 3 offers, allow me to offer a few bold predictions for this week - one for each game on the schedule... or as my friends call them, "Things we will soon make fun of you over":
1. Giants @ Eagles - Michael Vick will pass for 400 yards... but will run for less than 10
- Vick comes into the game "banged-up", but without any bodily injury. By all reports, he is doing fine after his minor concussion and has practiced most of the week. Last time he played the Giants, they held him in the pocket and collapsed it upon him to keep him in check. This time the G-Men are without Osi Umenyiora and their secondary is in shambles. Michael Vick will listen Andy Reid's pleas to not get himself killed and will pick apart the Giants to the tune of a monster fantasy day for Vick, Maclin, and Jackson.
2. Texans @ Saints - Ingram gets off the shneid (I have it on good authority that is spelled correctly) and scores 20 fantasy points
- Daniel Thomas came into the game for the Dolphins last week and put up 16 fantasy points in a home game that the Dolphins wound up losing. I don't expect the Saints to lose this week and I think it's been proven the Texans can be pounded up the middle, something Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles do not excel at. Ingram has a meager 91 yards and hasn't reached the end zone, but I think this game sets him up for a possible 2 TDs and 80 yards.
3. Jaguars @ Panthers - DeAngelo Williams finally scores over 10 fantasy points
- Going into the season, this certainly wouldn't have been a bold prediction. But through the first two weeks, the newly-contracted Williams seems to be an afterthought (only 43 yards rushing in '11). Though the Panthers have led in both of their first two weeks, I expect them to finally have a game in which they lead but double-digits and pound the ball - it also wouldn't hurt to protect Cam Newton by getting touches for the RBs. Williams is still incredibly talented and will (finally) break out Sunday.
4. Patriots @ Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick outscores Tom Brady in fantasy (but not real life)
- Fitzpatrick has been great this year, making smart decisions and using his receivers to their full potential. The running game and a soft schedule has certainly helped, but his play speaks for itself. Brady, on the other hand, has looked like a cyborg while carving up secondaries. I expect Tom Terrific to have good numbers but I also think the Pats will come into this game trying to prove they can run the ball on team still weak in the front-7. The argument about QBs playing from behind is a bit of a tired one, but it rings true this week as Fitz throw for about 350 and 3 TDS.
5. Dolphins @ Browns - Brandon Marshall is held to under 40 yards receiving
- Joe Haden, based on the first two games of the season, seems to be blossoming into the league's newest shutdown corner. A.J. Green only had one catch on a fluke play in week 1 and Reggie Wayne was held in check last week. Marshall is clearly more productive than either of those guys and Henne is markedly better than either of their QBs (he hasn't heard that in awhile). But I see a lot of Daniel Thomas, TEs, and possession WRs as the Browns try to limit Marshall's damage outside. He should still be started but temper your expectations a bit.
6. 49ers @ Bengals - The 49ers hold the Bengals to fewer than 200 total yards
- The Niners defense, despite the handful of huge plays given up last week to the Cowboys, has looked pretty good, especially up front. The Bengals have shown they are a flat-out ineffective offense when they can't control the line of scrimmage. With the Cincy offense in disarray due to inevitable legal troubles for two of their top playmakers (Benson & Simpson), I think this game sets up well for a defensive, low-scoring game. I can't recommend a single player for either team.
7. Broncos @ Titans - Chris Johnson comes to life with over 150 total yards
- CJ definitely look quite like himself yet (outscored by backup Javon Ringer last week), but one would imagine he gets closer to CJ2K with each progressing week. Denver looked awful against Run DMC on the ground in week 1 but fine against Benson last week. Guess which of those RBs CJ2K is most similar to?
8. Lions @ Vikings - Matthew Stafford is harassed all game and sacked at least 5 times
- For as much as the Vikings have underwhelmed this season, their defensive line is still a strong point, made more so with Kevin Williams returning from suspension. For as sexy as the Lions have been from a fantasy perspective, they haven't faced a front 4 nearly this strong so far. The sackless streak ends for the Lions this week - and maybe the winning streak, too.
9. Ravens @ Rams - The Ravens run defense holds the Rams to fewer than 20 yards on the ground
- Against a depleted Giants defense last Monday, the Rams running game was dreadful. Just when it looked like Cadillac Williams would become fantasy-relevant again, the Rams came out and showed their week 1 success on the ground was more about the Eagles' struggles than the Rams' triumph. Now they face a surly Ravens defense eager to prove its worth after last week's upset in Nashville. DO NOT start Williams or Steven Jackson in this one.
10. Jets @ Raiders - The Jets run game struggles again and Shonn Greene is held under 5 fantasy points
- Shonn Greene has not looked good, even though he managed to get into the end zone last week. The run game in general has sputtered for the J-E-T-S and it won't get any better with leader Nick Mangold out in week 3. The Raiders allowed 14o total yards and two TDs to Fred Jackson last week, but that was on the road and on a short week. Expect the Raiders to dare Mark Sanchez to beat them over the top - and expect meager numbers for Greene as a result.
11. Chiefs @ Chargers - Antonio Gates plays... and scores 2 TDs
- Many people speculated Gates was hurt last week as he was shut out by the Pats, and that speculation gained traction as Gates barely practiced this week. However, people forget how rarely he practiced last year... and how darned good Gates is. I think he will play and he will get 2 TDs in the first half, then he'll be rested. The Chiefs gave up 2 TDs to Scott Chandler in week 1 and he's not exactly in the same tier as Gates, even at 50%.
12. Cardinals @ Seahawks - No player on either team scores more than 15 fantasy points in this game
- The Cardinals have looked fine on offense, though a good chunk of their yardage has come on a few big plays. Of course, the Seahawks are more than capable of allowing big plays, but they're playing at home for the first time this season and it sets up as a game in which their defense plays above its collective talent. On the other side of the ball, who could possibly put up multiple TDs or even average fantasy numbers? The Cardinals are far from elite on defense, but compared to an offense led by Tarvaris Jackson...? Yeah, that says it all.
13. Falcons @ Buccaneers - Jacquizz Rodgers approaches 100 total yards
- Yes, I'm calling for a backup (maybe even third-string) RB to gain 100 yards in this one. Rodgers was eased into the lineup more this past week, especially as the Falcons were put in catch-up mode. Both offenses have shown signs of life and with good weather in Tampa, this could become a divisional offensive shootout if both defenses aren't careful. I think a lot of points will be scored and the Tampa-2 defense, which drops back off the ball, will allow a ton of short-yardage dump-offs to Rodgers in his new passing game role.
14. Packers @ Bears - Jay Cutler plays okay and gets over 300 yards passing
- Now, I fully expect him to go down half a dozen times in the arms of Clay Matthews, et al, but that wouldn't really be a bold prediction, would it? The real theme here is the struggling Packers secondary, now without its main ballhawking centerfielder Nick Collins. I don't think Aaron Rodgers' previous hardships in Soldier will occur again, meaning the Bears will keep slinging it around to keep up. Cutler ends up as a top-12 QB this week.
15. Steelers @ Colts - Isaac Redman gets 15 fantasy points
- Go back and look at the numbers and you'll see that Redman actually had a healthy 11 fantasy points last week. Though many people would point to the relative smack-down the Steelers were laying on the Seahawks in week 2 as a reason he got as many touches as he did, the reality is that he was getting carries even in the first quarter. Most would expect the Steelers to dominate this game, especially on the ground, meaning it is plenty reasonable to expect over 15 points from both Mendenhall and Redman.
16. Redskins @ Cowboys - Tony Romo finishes with less than 10 fantasy points (in 4pt TD leagues)
- Through the first two weeks, the Redskins have allowed 14 points to Eli Manning and 16 to Kevin Kolb. Though I definitely like Romo more than both of those guys, the weapons he expects to have for this Monday night tilt pale in comparison to what Eli and Kolb had in theirs. The Redskins will also run the ball a ton, trying to keep the Cowboys off the field. Of course, Romo is also dealing with some kind of injury... can't remember what it is - if only we could get some more media coverage on it...
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