-- By now, you've heard the stats of the weekend. Tom Brady threw for one-tenth of a mile, Cam Newton racked up a rookie passing record, and LeGarrette Blount was held to barely a dozen yards. This is not a surface-level recap; this review is centered upon stats like targets, percentages of touches in an offense compared to teammates, and averages per attempt or play. --
New Orleans @ Green Bay
- Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were obviously amazing, but their yards per attempt were "only" good. Though you will start them both every week this year, don't be surprised if playing inferior competition when they don't need to throw quite as much hurts their stats.
- Mark Ingram carried 13 times for a measly average (3.1) while Pierre Thomas ran 5 times for twice the yards per carry. Thomas looks agile and will not take the primary ball-carrier role from Ingram barring injury, but PT Cruiser will be very solid in blowout weeks for the Saints - He also chipped in with 4 catches.
- 5 Saints got between 7 and 9 targets, another sign of Brees' efficiency in spreading the ball around. Curious minds will also note that all 5 receivers had exactly 3 of those targets fall incomplete, meaning no one receiver was more effective or in tune with Drew.
- Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings both had 8 targets for roughly the same average and 1 TD each. I posted about Nelson last Friday but it will be interesting to compare the two moving forward.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
- Hines Ward continues to be a steady target for Big Ben, notching 9 targets while the Steelers played a lot of catch-up and averaged over 13 yards per catch. He's certainly not a sexy fantasy player but it doesn't mean he's irrelevant.
- Ed Dickson had 5 targets and caught them all (one for a TD), a stat that obviously won't hold up but should not be sneezed at. If he becomes Flacco's reliable TE target, he has top-12 upside.
- Lee Evans had 4 targets and they all fell incomplete. This is a prime example of a guy who will help his NFL team - not your fantasy team.
Atlanta @ Chicago
- Michael Turner averaged 10 yards per carry on only 10 carries, as the Falcons threw the ball all over the field in catch-up mode. While those numbers suggest his burst is still there, he also busted out a long run on which he was caught before he could take it to the house...
- Turner also got 3 catches for 40 yards, a stat history would suggest will not repeat itself this year.
- Roddy White tied the week lead for targets with 13. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez will get their looks, but make no mistake about who Ryan's #1 guy (still) is.
- Speaking of Gonzalez, he had 7 targets, but I think a lot of that is based on the Bears' cover-2 under zone. I would expect the WR's to get more looks the more this offense opens up.
- Kahlil Bell got 10 carries, only 5 short of Matt Forte. Keep that in mind for Marion Barber when he's healthy.
- Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Roy Williams, Kellen Davis, and Devin Hester all got 4 or 5 targets each. I don't see any Bears WR's being anything more than an occasional flex start - if no WR could put up a big game when Cutler was on-point and threw for 300 yards, it makes one think it will rarely/never happen.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
- Colt McCoy's number look rough: under 50% completion and barely over 5 yards per attempt. I don't see the Bengals being the team we look back on and say "Man, their defense was great!" this year, so if Colt can't pick himself up against the Colts this week, I'd say the warning bells are going off.
- Peyton Hillis had 8 targets, maintaining his role as one of the top targets on the team. Hillis will be great, especially in PPR, as long as he stays healthy.
- Ben Watson and Evan Moore both had 3 catches and a TD. I honestly think they could both be viable starts this year, but Moore has the higher ceiling.
- Jermaine Gresham, speaking of #1 TE targets, may become a favorite in Cincy. Rookie QB's (Dalton) and backup QB's (Gradkowski) tend to love the TE and Gresham has the talent to make a leap this year, regardless of who is at the helm.
- Jerome Simpson had 9 targets, 5 more than A.J. Green. This looks like a good number, but I think it might be due to Joe Haden's presence (and leap into near-elite CB status) that made the Bengals look his way. I think the targets split with Simpson and Green will be a lot closer to 50-50 sooner than later.
Buffalo @ Kansas City
- Both Bills RB's only had 1 target (Spiller's going for a TD - his only halfway-decent play of the game). Fitzpatrick likes to scramble and force the ball down the field and his RB's reception totals suffer as a result. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are decent and iffy starts (at best, respectively) in PPR formats the rest of the way.
- David Nelson seemed to be Fitzpatrick's #2 WR target, garnering 4 catches for 66 yards on 6 targets. With Marcus Easley now out for the year, there is potential value here, but not any time soon.
- I say "WR target" for Nelson because Steve Chandler came out of nowhere with a big fantasy day. Keep an eye on targets (especially red-zone targets) for Chandler and snatch him up if he keeps getting looks from Fitzpatrick.
- Dwayne Bowe turned in a dreadful day but was targeted 8 times. He's still the clear-cut #1 guy there, but he is nowhere above the middle tier of WR #2's in fantasy based on QB play and lack of focus.
- Jamaal Charles saved his day with a TD, but more notably, got 10 carries to Thomas Jones' 2. In fact, Dexter McCluster was behind Charles with 4 carries, and he pitched in 5 catches. Jones shouldn't be owned in any league but the very deepest.
Philadephia @ St. Louis
- DeSean Jackson led the team with 12 targets for the game - not a surprise the Eagles wanted to get him the ball considering his contract situation. I think Jeremy Maclin will be in line for more than 3 targets next week as he gets up to speed, especially considering it would be a surprise to see Jason Avant get 7 again.
- Cadillac Williams was great, racking up lots of receptions and nearly 100 yards on the ground. 1. I think the Eagles run defense is soft. 2. Cadillac could be a top-10 RB as a spot start in the next couple weeks if Steven Jackson doesn't return to 100% quickly.
- Brandon Gibson had a 16.7 yards per catch rate against a team considered to be impenetrable against the pass. Sims-Walker, on the other hand, had only one catch. Gibson is the guy you want - he's a deep threat in the mold of Brandon Lloyd last season.
- Lance Kendricks got 5 targets but didn't do anything with them, dropping 2 - one of which he would've scored on. I would chalk this up to first game jitters but be careful; there's talent at TE on this team and drops won't be tolerated on a weekly basis.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
- Nate Burleson doesn't necessarily jump off the page, but the fact that he caught all 5 balls thrown his way is a good sign. He'll get plenty of opportunity in a pass-first offense and across from a stud WR. The TD's will come eventually.
- Jahvid Best had 4 catches and 25 total touches. He looked pretty sharp and they love using him, but I'm very worried about him being over-used...
- Brandon Pettigrew had 4 catches on 6 targets, including a TD pass he dropped and one vultured by Tony Scheffler - I expect Pettigrew's numbers to improve a bit.
- Kellen Winslow was the reliable target for Josh Freeman, catching 6 of 8 targets. Mike Williams, on the other hand, only had 4 catches on 11 targets but is absolutely Freeman's big-play guy. His numbers should be quite solid again this year in his Sophomore campaign.
- Nothing specific in the Tampa running game - all the RB's (and offensive line?) were terrible, especially LeGarrette Blount. The Lions are so strong up front - don't be surprised if you find yourself sitting solid RB's against them throughout the year.
Tennessee @ Jacksonvile
- Kenny Britt had 10 targets and great yardage, even though his stats were eventually skewed by a weird/big play. I can definitely see the argument of him being inconsistent, but as long as Locker is on the bench (and maybe even when he's not), Britt has top-3 WR potential. Yes, I mean that.
- Nate Washington played the possession receiver role, a position that is typically very solid with Hasselbeck at the helm. He's almost worth a pick-up in PPR leagues already and keep an eye on him in other leagues. Remember he was a Mike Wallace-esque game breaker in Pittsburgh as recently as a couple years ago.
- Deji Karim, a player I've discussed recently, got a whopping 17 touches. His yards per rush were quite bad, but that will only go up if Maurice Jones-Drew gets banged. And if he doesn't, it probably means Karim is getting enough of a look to keep MJD fresh. It reminds me a lot of MJD's rookie year when he was 1a to Fred Taylor's 1. Watch Karim blow up in their first matchup against the Colts.
- Mike Thomas is clearly the only legitimate receiver in Jacksonville (not saying much, I know), tallying 11 targets. He's far from great but is worth owning in all leagues.
Indianapolis @ Houston
- We all expected the Texans to run on Indy even without Arian Foster, and they did. Derrick Ward and Ben Tate split the carries but Tate looked much better, averaging nearly a yard and a half more per carry than Ward. If Foster proves fully healthy soon, Ward is not worth a bench spot in hardly any league.
- Andre Johnson proved why he was the #1 WR, getting 11 targets. And Kevin Walter got hurt, allowing Jacoby Jones to enter the game. He hauled in all 3 of his targets and returned a punt for a TD. Watch out for him in the next week or two.
- The Colts couldn't do much of anything, but Reggie Wayne was clearly the #1 target for Kerry Collins (11 targets). Meanwhile, Pierre Garcon caught only half of his 6 targets and Austin Collie was nowhere to be found. A disturbing trend for Colts owners other than Wayne and Dallas Clark.
- Joseph Addai ran for a 4.9 average; not to say he had a good day, but he might be proving he's fresh enough to be worth owning and starting as a flex.
Minnesota @ San Diego
- Percy Harvin had as many carries as targets. I know the Vikings passing attack can't possibly be this bad, but it's interesting to note Harvin will get touches everywhere. He's dynamic but might be stifled by an anemic attack and Peterson's heavy workload.
- Malcolm Floyd had 8 targets and Vincent Jackson only had 3. I would be shocked if we didn't see this flipped sooner rather than later.
- Antonio Gates got 13 targets, as many as anyone in week 1. He is proving why he's the #1 TE, but let's also hope the Chargers don't ride him into the ground.
- The Chargers RB's combined for 12 catches on 14 targets. I love intelligent QB's who are also immobile - helps RB's rack up receiving yards. That said, Tolbert is clearly the passing-down back and should be an every week start in PPR leagues, even if he stops scoring TD's.
Carolina @ Arizona
- Cam Newton's yards per completion were based on some very big plays, but they are nonetheless impressive. He also threw for about a 67% average (about 20 points higher than Michael Vick - just saying.)
- As impressive as the big plays, I was impressed that RB's got 7 catches for Carolina. Typically with young and mobile QB's, they want to run and skip the check-down pass.
- Beyond catching the ball, Carolina RB's were pretty useless. It's hard to imagine the Cardinals defensive line being a juggernaut against the run - be cautious and make sure this run game gets going before trusting either Williams or Stewart.
- Greg Olsen had nearly 20 yards per catch and had the second-most targets on the team. He is clearly Cam's #2 option on that team.
- Early Doucet got all 3 targets given to him, one of which went for a 70-yard TD. Doucet is talented, so if he's healthy and the Cardinals trail as much as their secondary leads one to believe, Doucet may be worth a pick up this week or very soon.
- Larry Fitzgerald, who struggled through inept QB play last year, suffered from another outing of less than a 50% catch percentage (caught 3 of 7 targets). He was smothered all game and Kolb tried to force it in a few times. I wouldn't worry at this point; Fitz owners should expect that rate increase quickly.
Seattle @ San Francisco
- All the stats for this game are ugly, but Fran Gore takes the cake. He busted off a 16-yard but averaged exactly 2 yards per carry besides that. The Niners may struggle to move the ball this year, though Gore will get more opportunity in other games and may be closer to a top-20 RB when he does, but I don't expect much more to be honest.
- Tarvaris Jackson was predictably sub-par but Alex Smith actually completed a good percentage (75%) and may be worth a bench spot for games in which his team is down by 30 (which may happen often).
- Seattle RB's got 9 targets, a similarly surprising stat (see: Newton, Cam). The only way these RB's help a fantasy team is if they are dual threats - this team will very rarely be in clock-kill mode.
New York Giants @ Washington
- Eli Manning was dreadful but Hakeem Nicks still put up big numbers as he was clearly the first read on most plays. I don't worry too much about Mario Manningham's mediocre day - he still got 7 targets and his explosiveness didn't go anywhere.
- Fred Davis caught 5 of 6 passes for over 100 yards, and his long catch was only 28 yards. Some are hesitant about Davis based in Chris Cooley and I don't buy it - Cooley's injuries scare me. I just wouldn't go crazy on Davis because Rex Grossman is still at QB.
- Tim Hightower had a decent day despite a sub-3 yards per carry average. He was involved in the passing game too. But I still worry about what Fantasy Satan (Mike Shanahan) will do if Hightower gets all the touches but doesn't produce as well as the water boy could (in Satan's eyes).
Dallas @ New York Jets
- Tony Romo really had a great game, especially considering the servers and the fact he wasn't playing catch-up or dominating. 342 yards with nearly 10 yards per attempt; that'll do.
- Don't read into the target stats for the Cowboys (except remember that Jason Witten is Romo's go-to possession guy); Tony threw to whoever wasn't covered by Revis... Until it counted and he lost the game for the 'Boys.
- I was actually surprised Felix Jones only had 3 catches. Even if they don't dump it off as much as I thought (shouldn't be surprised based on Romo's ridiculous scrambling), Jines is clearly the lead guy and Demarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't anywhere close.
- Santonio Holmes should have had a better game if not for Mark Sanchez's struggles. He was targeted 10 times and should do better when Sanche is more relaxed.
- Shonn Greene looked awful and the numbers show it. He had as many touches as LaDainian Tomlinson did and LT looked better. Greene will be better in games the Jets are leading, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried a bit.
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