Week 1 by the Numbers: A look at this week's important stats

[Each week, I will post a review of the week's stats, focusing on important numbers like touches, targets, and averages. Later in the week, after replaying the games, I will post a reaction to the numbers, focusing on the deceiving stats and hidden gems]

-- By now, you've heard the stats of the weekend. Tom Brady threw for one-tenth of a mile, Cam Newton racked up a rookie passing record, and LeGarrette Blount was held to barely a dozen yards. This is not a surface-level recap; this review is centered upon stats like targets, percentages of touches in an offense compared to teammates, and averages per attempt or play. --

New Orleans @ Green Bay
- Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were obviously amazing, but their yards per attempt were "only" good. Though you will start them both every week this year, don't be surprised if playing inferior competition when they don't need to throw quite as much hurts their stats.
- Mark Ingram carried 13 times for a measly average (3.1) while Pierre Thomas ran 5 times for twice the yards per carry. Thomas looks agile and will not take the primary ball-carrier role from Ingram barring injury, but PT Cruiser will be very solid in blowout weeks for the Saints - He also chipped in with 4 catches.
- 5 Saints got between 7 and 9 targets, another sign of Brees' efficiency in spreading the ball around. Curious minds will also note that all 5 receivers had exactly 3 of those targets fall incomplete, meaning no one receiver was more effective or in tune with Drew.
- Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings both had 8 targets for roughly the same average and 1 TD each. I posted about Nelson last Friday but it will be interesting to compare the two moving forward.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
- Hines Ward continues to be a steady target for Big Ben, notching 9 targets while the Steelers played a lot of catch-up and averaged over 13 yards per catch. He's certainly not a sexy fantasy player but it doesn't mean he's irrelevant.
- Ed Dickson had 5 targets and caught them all (one for a TD), a stat that obviously won't hold up but should not be sneezed at. If he becomes Flacco's reliable TE target, he has top-12 upside.
- Lee Evans had 4 targets and they all fell incomplete. This is a prime example of a guy who will help his NFL team - not your fantasy team.

Atlanta @ Chicago
- Michael Turner averaged 10 yards per carry on only 10 carries, as the Falcons threw the ball all over the field in catch-up mode. While those numbers suggest his burst is still there, he also busted out a long run on which he was caught before he could take it to the house...
- Turner also got 3 catches for 40 yards, a stat history would suggest will not repeat itself this year.
- Roddy White tied the week lead for targets with 13. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez will get their looks, but make no mistake about who Ryan's #1 guy (still) is.
- Speaking of Gonzalez, he had 7 targets, but I think a lot of that is based on the Bears' cover-2 under zone. I would expect the WR's to get more looks the more this offense opens up.
- Kahlil Bell got 10 carries, only 5 short of Matt Forte. Keep that in mind for Marion Barber when he's healthy.
- Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Roy Williams, Kellen Davis, and Devin Hester all got 4 or 5 targets each. I don't see any Bears WR's being anything more than an occasional flex start - if no WR could put up a big game when Cutler was on-point and threw for 300 yards, it makes one think it will rarely/never happen.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
- Colt McCoy's number look rough: under 50% completion and barely over 5 yards per attempt. I don't see the Bengals being the team we look back on and say "Man, their defense was great!" this year, so if Colt can't pick himself up against the Colts this week, I'd say the warning bells are going off.
- Peyton Hillis had 8 targets, maintaining his role as one of the top targets on the team. Hillis will be great, especially in PPR, as long as he stays healthy.
- Ben Watson and Evan Moore both had 3 catches and a TD. I honestly think they could both be viable starts this year, but Moore has the higher ceiling.
- Jermaine Gresham, speaking of #1 TE targets, may become a favorite in Cincy. Rookie QB's (Dalton) and backup QB's (Gradkowski) tend to love the TE and Gresham has the talent to make a leap this year, regardless of who is at the helm.
- Jerome Simpson had 9 targets, 5 more than A.J. Green. This looks like a good number, but I think it might be due to Joe Haden's presence (and leap into near-elite CB status) that made the Bengals look his way. I think the targets split with Simpson and Green will be a lot closer to 50-50 sooner than later.

Buffalo @ Kansas City
- Both Bills RB's only had 1 target (Spiller's going for a TD - his only halfway-decent play of the game). Fitzpatrick likes to scramble and force the ball down the field and his RB's reception totals suffer as a result. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are decent and iffy starts (at best, respectively) in PPR formats the rest of the way.
- David Nelson seemed to be Fitzpatrick's #2 WR target, garnering 4 catches for 66 yards on 6 targets. With Marcus Easley now out for the year, there is potential value here, but not any time soon.
- I say "WR target" for Nelson because Steve Chandler came out of nowhere with a big fantasy day. Keep an eye on targets (especially red-zone targets) for Chandler and snatch him up if he keeps getting looks from Fitzpatrick.
- Dwayne Bowe turned in a dreadful day but was targeted 8 times. He's still the clear-cut #1 guy there, but he is nowhere above the middle tier of WR #2's in fantasy based on QB play and lack of focus.
- Jamaal Charles saved his day with a TD, but more notably, got 10 carries to Thomas Jones' 2. In fact, Dexter McCluster was behind Charles with 4 carries, and he pitched in 5 catches. Jones shouldn't be owned in any league but the very deepest.

Philadephia @ St. Louis
- DeSean Jackson led the team with 12 targets for the game - not a surprise the Eagles wanted to get him the ball considering his contract situation. I think Jeremy Maclin will be in line for more than 3 targets next week as he gets up to speed, especially considering it would be a surprise to see Jason Avant get 7 again.
- Cadillac Williams was great, racking up lots of receptions and nearly 100 yards on the ground. 1. I think the Eagles run defense is soft. 2. Cadillac could be a top-10 RB as a spot start in the next couple weeks if Steven Jackson doesn't return to 100% quickly.
- Brandon Gibson had a 16.7 yards per catch rate against a team considered to be impenetrable against the pass. Sims-Walker, on the other hand, had only one catch. Gibson is the guy you want - he's a deep threat in the mold of Brandon Lloyd last season.
- Lance Kendricks got 5 targets but didn't do anything with them, dropping 2 - one of which he would've scored on. I would chalk this up to first game jitters but be careful; there's talent at TE on this team and drops won't be tolerated on a weekly basis.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
- Nate Burleson doesn't necessarily jump off the page, but the fact that he caught all 5 balls thrown his way is a good sign. He'll get plenty of opportunity in a pass-first offense and across from a stud WR. The TD's will come eventually.
- Jahvid Best had 4 catches and 25 total touches. He looked pretty sharp and they love using him, but I'm very worried about him being over-used...
- Brandon Pettigrew had 4 catches on 6 targets, including a TD pass he dropped and one vultured by Tony Scheffler - I expect Pettigrew's numbers to improve a bit.
- Kellen Winslow was the reliable target for Josh Freeman, catching 6 of 8 targets. Mike Williams, on the other hand, only had 4 catches on 11 targets but is absolutely Freeman's big-play guy. His numbers should be quite solid again this year in his Sophomore campaign.
- Nothing specific in the Tampa running game - all the RB's (and offensive line?) were terrible, especially LeGarrette Blount. The Lions are so strong up front - don't be surprised if you find yourself sitting solid RB's against them throughout the year.

Tennessee @ Jacksonvile
- Kenny Britt had 10 targets and great yardage, even though his stats were eventually skewed by a weird/big play. I can definitely see the argument of him being inconsistent, but as long as Locker is on the bench (and maybe even when he's not), Britt has top-3 WR potential. Yes, I mean that.
- Nate Washington played the possession receiver role, a position that is typically very solid with Hasselbeck at the helm. He's almost worth a pick-up in PPR leagues already and keep an eye on him in other leagues. Remember he was a Mike Wallace-esque game breaker in Pittsburgh as recently as a couple years ago.
- Deji Karim, a player I've discussed recently, got a whopping 17 touches. His yards per rush were quite bad, but that will only go up if Maurice Jones-Drew gets banged. And if he doesn't, it probably means Karim is getting enough of a look to keep MJD fresh. It reminds me a lot of MJD's rookie year when he was 1a to Fred Taylor's 1. Watch Karim blow up in their first matchup against the Colts.
- Mike Thomas is clearly the only legitimate receiver in Jacksonville (not saying much, I know), tallying 11 targets. He's far from great but is worth owning in all leagues.

Indianapolis @ Houston
- We all expected the Texans to run on Indy even without Arian Foster, and they did. Derrick Ward and Ben Tate split the carries but Tate looked much better, averaging nearly a yard and a half more per carry than Ward. If Foster proves fully healthy soon, Ward is not worth a bench spot in hardly any league.
- Andre Johnson proved why he was the #1 WR, getting 11 targets. And Kevin Walter got hurt, allowing Jacoby Jones to enter the game. He hauled in all 3 of his targets and returned a punt for a TD. Watch out for him in the next week or two.
- The Colts couldn't do much of anything, but Reggie Wayne was clearly the #1 target for Kerry Collins (11 targets). Meanwhile, Pierre Garcon caught only half of his 6 targets and Austin Collie was nowhere to be found. A disturbing trend for Colts owners other than Wayne and Dallas Clark.
- Joseph Addai ran for a 4.9 average; not to say he had a good day, but he might be proving he's fresh enough to be worth owning and starting as a flex.

Minnesota @ San Diego
- Percy Harvin had as many carries as targets. I know the Vikings passing attack can't possibly be this bad, but it's interesting to note Harvin will get touches everywhere. He's dynamic but might be stifled by an anemic attack and Peterson's heavy workload.
- Malcolm Floyd had 8 targets and Vincent Jackson only had 3. I would be shocked if we didn't see this flipped sooner rather than later.
- Antonio Gates got 13 targets, as many as anyone in week 1. He is proving why he's the #1 TE, but let's also hope the Chargers don't ride him into the ground.
- The Chargers RB's combined for 12 catches on 14 targets. I love intelligent QB's who are also immobile - helps RB's rack up receiving yards. That said, Tolbert is clearly the passing-down back and should be an every week start in PPR leagues, even if he stops scoring TD's.

Carolina @ Arizona
- Cam Newton's yards per completion were based on some very big plays, but they are nonetheless impressive. He also threw for about a 67% average (about 20 points higher than Michael Vick - just saying.)
- As impressive as the big plays, I was impressed that RB's got 7 catches for Carolina. Typically with young and mobile QB's, they want to run and skip the check-down pass.
- Beyond catching the ball, Carolina RB's were pretty useless. It's hard to imagine the Cardinals defensive line being a juggernaut against the run - be cautious and make sure this run game gets going before trusting either Williams or Stewart.
- Greg Olsen had nearly 20 yards per catch and had the second-most targets on the team. He is clearly Cam's #2 option on that team.
- Early Doucet got all 3 targets given to him, one of which went for a 70-yard TD. Doucet is talented, so if he's healthy and the Cardinals trail as much as their secondary leads one to believe, Doucet may be worth a pick up this week or very soon.
- Larry Fitzgerald, who struggled through inept QB play last year, suffered from another outing of less than a 50% catch percentage (caught 3 of 7 targets). He was smothered all game and Kolb tried to force it in a few times. I wouldn't worry at this point; Fitz owners should expect that rate increase quickly.

Seattle @ San Francisco
- All the stats for this game are ugly, but Fran Gore takes the cake. He busted off a 16-yard but averaged exactly 2 yards per carry besides that. The Niners may struggle to move the ball this year, though Gore will get more opportunity in other games and may be closer to a top-20 RB when he does, but I don't expect much more to be honest.
- Tarvaris Jackson was predictably sub-par but Alex Smith actually completed a good percentage (75%) and may be worth a bench spot for games in which his team is down by 30 (which may happen often).
- Seattle RB's got 9 targets, a similarly surprising stat (see: Newton, Cam). The only way these RB's help a fantasy team is if they are dual threats - this team will very rarely be in clock-kill mode.

New York Giants @ Washington
- Eli Manning was dreadful but Hakeem Nicks still put up big numbers as he was clearly the first read on most plays. I don't worry too much about Mario Manningham's mediocre day - he still got 7 targets and his explosiveness didn't go anywhere.
- Fred Davis caught 5 of 6 passes for over 100 yards, and his long catch was only 28 yards. Some are hesitant about Davis based in Chris Cooley and I don't buy it - Cooley's injuries scare me. I just wouldn't go crazy on Davis because Rex Grossman is still at QB.
- Tim Hightower had a decent day despite a sub-3 yards per carry average. He was involved in the passing game too. But I still worry about what Fantasy Satan (Mike Shanahan) will do if Hightower gets all the touches but doesn't produce as well as the water boy could (in Satan's eyes).

Dallas @ New York Jets
- Tony Romo really had a great game, especially considering the servers and the fact he wasn't playing catch-up or dominating. 342 yards with nearly 10 yards per attempt; that'll do.
- Don't read into the target stats for the Cowboys (except remember that Jason Witten is Romo's go-to possession guy); Tony threw to whoever wasn't covered by Revis... Until it counted and he lost the game for the 'Boys.
- I was actually surprised Felix Jones only had 3 catches. Even if they don't dump it off as much as I thought (shouldn't be surprised based on Romo's ridiculous scrambling), Jines is clearly the lead guy and Demarco Murray and Tashard Choice aren't anywhere close.
- Santonio Holmes should have had a better game if not for Mark Sanchez's struggles. He was targeted 10 times and should do better when Sanche is more relaxed.
- Shonn Greene looked awful and the numbers show it. He had as many touches as LaDainian Tomlinson did and LT looked better. Greene will be better in games the Jets are leading, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried a bit.

Alert: Add Now

Cadillac Williams, RB, StL

Steve Spagnuolo was just reported as saying there is a good chance Steven Jackson misses the week 2 Monday night game against the Giants. Caddy should get the vast majority of the carries next week and have a decent game, especially since he has a much better chance of scoring against the Giants than the Eagles when playing in catch-up mode. But Cadillac is not a "must-add" just because of one week; I think there is a good chance Jackson will be protected by the coaching staff and he could miss additional time because of it. Caddy should get plenty of opportunity, even when Jackson returns, assuming the Rams don't want to wear out their workhorse.

My Fantasy Football Tool Kit: My favorite fantasy sites, writers, and resources

Thankfully for everyone involved, this list of my favorite things does not involve whiskers on kittens. These are my go-to resources, the guys I trust the most, and people/organizations to whom I will be posting links on an ongoing basis. We all have our stand-by's - here are mine:


RotoWorld
If there is one site I can't live without, it's RotoWorld. But not for their amazing articles or expert advice - their contributors are solid but unspectacular and it drives me nuts that their rankings are behind a pay wall. But the constant stream of fantasy-slanted player news makes this site worth checking about a dozen times a day (seriously).

ESPN Fantasy Football
As much as we sports fans hear about the "Four Letter Network", their sheer size and amount of resources makes them a viable place for fantasy information. They post projections every week - frankly, I never look at them and wouldn't recommend it. They do, however, strive at posting interesting articles, especially in their "Draft Kit". The "32 Q's" series has a couple clunkers, but for the most part, they are interesting and relevant reads.

The Fantasy Focus Football podcast is a good listen if you have a long drive or some downtime during the day. It has its fair share of shtick, but it's relatively entertaining to the typical degenerate and has some good information.

Of the ESPN writers, Christopher Harris takes the cake for me. Nate Ravitz, Eric Karabell, Matthew Berry, et al are good enough writers, but I tend to agree with the rationale used by Harris more often than any other ESPN contributor. ESPN also employs a stable of writers who are part fantasy, part general football, like KC Joyner. Joyner in particular holds a high level of esteem within in the industry... but I still don't know why. He may be a bright football mind, but his recommendations for fantasy are typically far from accurate.

Pro Football Talk
Mike Florio and Gregg Rosenthal do an excellent job of keeping football fans posted on news, right as it happens, and they're nearly 100% accurate with their reports (I fell for PFT when they helped me win an office pool on which team would draft Tim Tebow last year). There isn't an fantasy spin on their posts (though there's a link to RotoWorld on the site), but we all know general information is invaluable to the fantasy football degenerate.

Football Outsiders
I consider myself a stat/math geek and even I don't understand all the calculations and permutations involved with FBO's metrics. But I can tell you that they are excellent football minds and they seem to be even more passionate than all the other competitors they face on the web. Every opinion is based on legitimate evidence, not just "hunches" and the site has the perfect combination of fantasy and non-fantasy focus. Beyond projections and fantasy spin, FBO has metrics for special teams, defenses, and even the likelihood of a team's injuries increasing. If you can understand just the basics of how they come up with the numbers, you'll have more than enough reason to visit the Outsiders a few times a week.


Dishonorable Mention


CBS Fantasy Football's Leagues - The articles on the site (particularly Jamie Eisenberg) are always decent quality, but the site is absolutely useless for managing a team/league. The site is nearly impossible to navigate, even down to something as simple as changing your team name. There's no watch list and even when you try to add a player, the only simple way to sort them is alphabetical. Sorry CBS, but I don't want to add Erik Ainge at QB... but thanks.

Opening Night: New Orleans v. Green Bay RUNNING DIARY GOODNESS!!!

5:37pst - Wow, another former "Idol"?? Aren't we done with that yet?

5:41pst - First kickoff of the season wasn't a touchback. Keep an eye on that

5:42pst - Did anyone hear something like a muffled sneeze that past two plays? What the hell is that?...

5:44pst - Wow, nice (ballsy) blitz from Gregg Williams there. Also, James Starks missing a potential sack-saving block - he'll need to fix that if he's going to get more catches than Ryan Grant this year.

5:46pst - Huge pass to Nelson, Grant makes a great pass block. Important side note: If Green Bay goes with a lot of this no-huddle, we could see the Packers just turn into the Saints of the past few years - No main target, just a bunch of good players with a great "point guard", who just wind up cutting into each other's touches.

5:50pst - I have Brees in the two leagues I care the most about. I could care less about the Saints (the Pack are actually my other team) but I am legitimately nervous right now...

5:55pst - The Pack go with a 5-receiver empty backfield set and James Jones is absent (Quarless is in but I can't imagine he has fantasy relevance as long as Finley's healthy). Now Nelson catches the TD and I would think Nelson has entered 2008 Steve Breaston or 2010 (healthy) Austin Collie territory. He can be a viable flex start nearly every week, I think.

6:08pst - Meachem beats the best corner on the field (Williams is actually even better than Woodson in 1-on-1) and scores on a big play. Is it that far-fetched to think Meachem is the #1 guy in New Orleans this year?

6:17pst - I hate hyperbole, especially when it's my fault. But Rodgers definitely looks a bit like 2007 Tom Brady right now...

6:48pst - Okay, so I should have added Chipotle to my list of favorite things. Break over.

6:49pst - Grant is narrowly outplaying Starks - I think this combo is really only useful if one of them gets banged up or one really shows the "hot hand" for a couple weeks at a time.

6:56pst - And Starks scores. Okay, fine then.

7:07pst - Wow what a first half. Two of the the three best QB's in the game playing in the same game, opening the season. Thanks, NFL. (I feel dirty saying that)

7:31pst - File under "Moral Victory": Brees is at least trying really hard to get it to Graham. Keep watching.

7:37pst - Randall Cobb kickoff return - early Play of the Year candidate

7:42pst - Cue the circus music, this game is a show. On the subject of circus, I've heard the Saints offense referred to as a "Cirque du Soleil" offense. Whoever came up with that is a genius; love it.

7:56pst - Tie for most exciting play in football: 4th & 1 and an onside kicks. Saints try to go to Graham again and it doesn't work. Again. Turnover on downs.

8:02pst - The concern about Finley eating into Jennings's number seems unfounded to this point. I know, you can tell that by watching - just wanted to make sure to mention it.

8:03pst - Bud Light commercials are literally never funny twice. Never. Normally not funny the first time, either.

8:18pst - The sacks in which Brees and the Saints offense look lost will be fixed sooner rather than later, you have to assume. This is much more the Packers' defensive superiority, not Saints' problems.

8:20pst - Has anyone noticed how often Finley is split out wide? From the naked eye, it seems like almost half his snaps, though he hasn't gotten many looks tonight. It definitely looks like a run set, but it could definitely turn into a favorite Packers formation in the red zone.

8:32pst - Man these QB's are good - I would be pretty surprised if they weren't 1-2 in fantasy points for the year

8:38pst - See? You figured the Saints wouldn't recover that onside kick, but it was damn fun

8:45pst - Punt for GB, setting up the feast/famine of a last-minute drive for your fantasy QB from deep in his own territory. Brees couldn easily rack up some garbage yards, but he could also get a pick forcing the ball or on a last-second Hail Mary. Let's see what happens.

8:49pst - Like the NFL was scripting the whole damn thing. Incredible.

I'm beat. If that's not the game of the year at the end of the season, we have one hell of a season in front of us.

Alert: ADD NOW

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB

In case it wasn't clear from last might, Jordy Nelson is ownable in all leagues and startable in more shallow ones.

He seems to be locked in as the WR across from Jennings with Driver working as an effective #3. He had just as many targets as Jennings and was great once Jabari Greer got moved in front of Jennings (after Greg burned Patrick Robinson for the first TD). This trend will continue against any team with a clear-cut #1 CB (which is quite common in this league). And against teams with iffy secondaries, the Pack seem to be able to score at will, making Nelson more than viable in all games except ones played against solid 2nd CB's (I.e., Philly).

Long and short of it: Go get Jordy.

Alert: Watch List Addition

[Throughout the season, I will post "alerts" on players based on performance and/or situations changing. I will divide these into two alerts: Watch List - add this guy to your "scout team" or just keep him in mind for the future, and Add Now - pick this guy up ASAP if you can.]

Watch List Addition: Deji Karim, RB, Jax

Deji Karim is a little-known running back in Jacksonville. Despite his low profile, he has just become the #2 RB for the Jaguars after Rashad Jennings was proclaimed out for the season with a knee injury.

Karim mainly returned kicks last year and was slated for the same role this season. He has outstanding burst and pad level and runs with an incredible drive in his lower body. In many ways, he is a clone of Maurice Jones-Drew as a younger player.

Karim could very likely wind up with significant playing time this season, especially if the public's concern about MJD's knees is well-founded. Keep an eye on him and pounce at the first sign of a limp from Jones-Drew.

Exhibitionists - The Most Impressive Fantasy Players of the 2011 Preseason

I know, I know - they call it PRE-season for a reason:  It doesn't count. And to a degree, that's true. My wife asks me the score of a preseason game and I only roll my eyes. But just because the games don't count doesn't mean they don't matter. Fantasy owners are looking at usage of players, how the jell with their teammates (a point even more important this year), and how players look as overall athletes. Terms like "pad-level", "explosiveness", "wow-factor" - these are all things we look for. And these are traits we look for from quarter 1 to quarter 4; fantasy studs Peyton Hillis and Brandon Lloyd played deep into a couple preseason games last year. Here are a few guys to keep an eye on based on their preseason performances:

- Colt McCoy, QB, Cle: Colt has looked sharp this preseason, moving the offense and throwing with pinpoint accuracy. He seems to have taken to the West Coast offense nearly immediately - not a surprise as it suits his skills perfectly. His receiving corps does not have a lot of star power, but when a QB like this takes off, he makes receivers good, not the other way around.

- Matthew Stafford, QB, Det: A "sleeper" everyone knows about is not a sleeper. But Stafford has hype for a reason, showcasing his cannon arm while throwing to a very talented set of receivers and backs. His line stood up for him through a few meaningless quarters - if it continues to do so, Stafford legitimately could be a top-5 fantasy QB.

- Tim Hightower, RB, Wash: Hightower, like McCoy, benefited this preseason from entering a system built for him. His one-cut style suits Shanahan to a tee (if it's possible to fit Fantasy Satan to a tee). Hightower undoubtedly will be removed from the starting role inexplicably by his demonic head coach, but for a 6th-round pick as a 2nd RB (if you went heavy at QB/WR/TE early), Timmy should provide a great start to the season.

- James Starks, RB, GB: I thought Starks was mediocre at best in his "breakout" playoff run last year. He thrived on carries when the Packers were ahead, amassing stats based more on quantity than quality. In fact, I drafted Ryan Grant in a draft early this offseason. Watching Starks this preseason has caused an about-face. He runs with more speed and power than last year - he reminds me of how Ahmad Bradshaw looked before he became a fantasy factor. In that offense with that running style, the sky is the limit.

- Ben Tate, RB, Hou: The new hot handcuff, Tate could be a factor this season even if Foster is healthy. He fits the scheme and has flashed some excellent skills. I loved this guy last year before he broke his leg, like many people (Football Outsiders, the inventors of the SPEED score, rated him the highest of any rookie RB last year). Now going inside the first dozen rounds, Tate seems a logical pick for any Arian owner.

- Kendall Hunter, RB, SF: Hunter has flashed tons of potential, showing good burst and vision. He was productive in college and is the only RB on the roster that new coach Jim Harbaugh hand-picked. He has an excellent YPC in the preseason and most important: he plays behind Fragile Frank Gore.

- Dion Lewis, RB, Phil: It's hard to imagine the Eagles drafted Lewis for any reason other than he's a clone of LeSean McCoy (which, for the record, is a hefty compliment). Ronnie Brown is certainly entrenched as the starter, but considering his injury history and the impressive shiftiness Lewis has shown, don't be surprised if an injury to McCoy means significant opportunity for his doppelganger Lewis.

- Julio Jones, WR, Atl: In his second touch as an NFL player, Jones took a short screen pass and showed the burst that made him a top-10 pick. He also served notice to the NFC South that the bounty his team gave up to move up and draft him may just have been worth it. I don't see a Randy Moss or Anquan Boldin kind of rookie year, but the Falcons could definitely pass a lot more this year - Ryan is one year more experienced and Turner is one year more used-up. If that's the case, 60 catches and 8 TD's is well within reach for Julio.

- Nate Burleson, WR, Det: He has caught 3 TD's this preseason and more importantly, he looks like the same athlete he was a few years ago when he had over 1,200 yards and was a top-20 WR. With Megatron on the other side and the Lions' secondary still looking a little shaky, he will have plenty of opportunities. 80 catches is not out of reach.

- Eric Decker, WR, Den: He may start as strictly a red zone target, but Decker has the hands and route-running ability to hold off Eddie Royal for the #2 WR job. Here's my take: John Fox has gotten great seasons, multiple times, from two different guys: Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad. From how he's looked in the past few games, I would be willing to say Decker is closer to the mold of Moose than Lloyd is to Smith. Upside aplenty here from a guy being drafted in very few leagues.

- Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE: At times last year, Hernandez flashed as the best pass-catcher on the Patriots. He has natural run-after-catch ability and is a difficult cover for nearly anyone guarding him. The Patriots, more than any team, put their players in positions to do what they do best. Regardless of Gronkowski's contribution this year, Hernandez will be given the opportunity to get several catches per game based on mismatches.

- Lance Kendricks, TE, StL: Bradford loved tight ends, despite not having one that could start on many teams' rosters. Kendricks, a big kid from a program that makes excellent tight ends (Wisconsin), could take over as "the guy" in the red zone for the Rams. If Bradford takes the leap many people expect him to, double-digit TD's for Kendricks could be in the offing.