Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Week 2 by the Numbers


[Each week, I will post a recap of the stats from the week's games, highlighting numbers beyond the normal stats, like targets, usage, and averages. Then later in the week, I will post a recap of each game after reviewing the game footage.]


Week 2 by the Numbers

Seattle @ Pittsburgh
- The Seahawks running game was putrid for a second straight week. You absolutely cannot start any of their running backs and, in fact, even their "lead back" Marshawn Lynch is barely ownable at this point. He averaged under 2 yards per carry this week.
- Ben Obamanu led the team in targets, though it's pretty hard to read into that. I will say that he probably has the most upside of any WR (especially with the recent Sidney Rice injury news) - if Whitehurst ever gets a shot and plays like he did in the preseason, he may make a couple waves a ways down the road.
- Rashard Mendenhall had an adequate rushing day, but Isaac Redman's 10 carries for 49 yards and a TD may have been the bigger story. With the immense workload Mendenhall had last year, Redman may be worth stashing even if he's not a handcuff - he could have RB1 upside if Mendenhall goes down.
- Mike Wallace is an absolute stud, garnering 126 yards and a TD on 9 targets. Antonio Brown was the #2 guy this week after being the #4 guy last week - he had 6 targets. Anyone other than Wallace seems to have minimal value until/unless someone in the WR corps goes down.

Oakland @ Buffalo
- Lots of numbers here. Run DMC had nearly 150 total yards and a TD and Fred Jackson had 140 with 2 TDs
- Both QBs blew up with about 600 total passing yards and 5 passing TDs combined. However, Fitzpatrick's numbers came more from volume - he only had a 5.7 yards per completion average. Campbell benefitted from a high-scoring game but should regress quite a bit as the Raiders run the ball more. Still, it was impressive that he put up 323 yards playing from ahead.
- Michael Bush again vultured a TD from McFadden but only had 3 other carries. He's an interesting handcuff but probably can't be started as long as DMC is healthy.
- Denarius Moore is the story here. The camp hero had an amazing 50-yard TD catch but combined for 96 yards on his other 4 catches (8 total targets). I can't say I'm positive he'll remain in the starting lineup when Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey are healthy, but it's still a good sign and Moore may be worth a pick-up this week.
- Stevie Johnson was his usual self but left with a groin injury. David Nelson was the breakout, putting up 83 yards on 10 catches (13 targets). He is absolutely worth a spot start, at least, next week against the porous Patriots secondary.

Kansas City @ Detroit
- Of Jamaal Charles's injury and the crushing blow to Kansas City's season is the main news in this game, but it is also worth noting that the numbers for the Chiefs were not all terrible. Dwayne Bowe had 101 yards on 8 targets (a surprisingly low number considering the blowout). I still think he's only a borderline top-25 WR, but it's good to see him bounce back.
- Dexter McCluster (more to come on him in later posts) had a 51 yards rushing after Charles went down (24 came on one run) on 8 carries. I don't expect him to get more than 10-12 carries per game, but when you sprinkle in the 9 catches he's put up in the first two weeks (can't imagine it's any less than that moving forward), I think he's easily more valuable than Thomas Jones.
- The Lions blew up again, with Stafford going for nearly 300 yards and 4 TDs. He'll eventually come a bit closer to Earth, but he is definitely a top-10 QB (maybe top-5).
- Jahvid Best's fantasy points may make his day look better than it was - He had a fantastic 66 yards receiving on 8 targets but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. He will consistently put up yards, but don't expect them on the ground, meaning his TD total will always be harder to predict than many other RBs.
- Nate Burlseon led the team with 93 and 9 targets. He is definitively a top-30 WR this year - he has solid catches totals and will get in the end zone eventually.

Baltimore @ Tennessee
- Ray Rice had another solid game - Like Best and McCluster, his value comes from the air as much as the ground. His long TD reception was quite impressive.
- Flacco showed he is consistently inconsistent, throwing for under 200 yards and 2 INT. He is NOT a starter at QB in any league and is barely a bye week replacement, in my opinion.
- Like last year, the WR corps (expectedly) goes with the QB, with no Ravens WR having over 50 yards or 3 catches.
- Okay, let me just say this: Kenny Britt is already my hands-down "Regret of the Year". He looks amazing and he had another game of over 100 yards (135) on a whopping 13 targets - against a really good defense! Top-3 WR potential.
- Chris Johnson was held to a 2.2 yards per carry average against an admittedly stout run defense. He is definitely not 100%, but I would be shocked if Javon Ringer's 10-yard TD run becomes a trend - those TDs will go to CJ sooner rather than later.
- I said it last week and I'll say it again: Nate Washington is ownable in all PPR leagues and in some larger standard leagues. Hasselbeck loves the possession WR and Britt will only attract more attention as he keeps this up.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis
- I can't imagine anyone is thinking it's a good idea to own Kerry Collins, but his counterpart McCoy was a trendy sleeper at the beginning of the season. He had a better overall day than fantasy day (67% completions) but only had one TD and barely over 200 yards. He has to stay on your bench for quite awhile until his numbers pick up.
- Peyton Hillis came to life on the ground, rushing for 2 TDs and nearly 100 yards. His average wasn't good but fantasy owners came to expect that last year and hope it continues. He probably won't face a weaker run D this year, though.
- McCoy spread the ball around through the air, another annoyance to fantasy owners but smart "real life" play. Until a guy like Greg Little asserts himself as a physical stud, nobody is safe to start in that receiving group.
- Evan Moore only had 1 target but it went for a TD. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's a top-12 TE or anything, but he's more than worth a start as bye weeks approach and could become the clear target with more time with McCoy.
- The only real takeaway from the Colts numbers other than the fact Delone Carter basically split time with Joseph Addai (11 carries to 14). He's a possible stud much later in the season.
- One last Colts note: Austin Collie only had 3 catches for 24 yards, but he had 10 targets. That offense tries to get the slot guy the ball - perhaps if Curtis Painter comes in, Collie's numbers goes up (shocking, I know).

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
- The Bucs again went down early, though this time LeGarrette Blount got enough touches to be a fantasy stud. Though he only ran 13 times, he averaged 5.5 per carry and got 2 TDs. Nothing to worry about here.
- The Bucs passing game, however, remains a mystery. Stud Mike Williams only had 1 catch for negative yards and Preston Parker led the team with 98 yards (though 51 came on one big play). I think they will be fine because Freeman is so good, but this may be a team whose team is better than their fantasy numbers demonstrate.
- No numbers here, but please drop Donovan McNabb if you have him. He's just not good.
- I will probably only talk about Adrian Peterson if he has less than 100 yards. So don't expect to hear much about him... But for what it's worth, note that he doesn't just get numbers on volume - he averaged 4.8 per carry.
- Percy Harvin had the game we expected, leading the team in targets and hauling in 7 of 8. He only had 76 yards but as long as he touches the ball, he always has a decent chance to score.

Chicago @ New Orleans
- Jay Cutler followed up a solid game with a bit of a nightmare, throwing for 5.6 yards per attempt and getting battered. He can put up good numbers, but make sure to only start him in matchups against non-aggressive defenses or weak pass rushers.
- Matt Forte again showed why he deserves a new contract and top-10 pick next year. He had a whopping 166 total yards and got 117 through the air - on an insane 14 targets!
- Don't read into the Dane Sanzenbacher performance (33 yards, TD) because he only came in for a banged-up Earl Bennett.
- The entire Saints run game struggled against the Bears ' tough run defense. Ingram got 14 touches, Sproles had 12, and Thomas had 11. It's frustrating for fantasy owners but it might be a three-headed monster until someone (Thomas) gets hurt.
- Devery Henderson got the yards with a huge 79-yard bomb but Jimmy Graham was Brees' down-field target. He had 6 catches for 79 yards on 7 targets and remains a top-8 TE.
- Lance Moore only had 1 catch for 6 yards but I expect him to be a bigger factor moving forward. Although it will be interesting to see how Moore and Sproles work together in a similar role.

Jacksonville @ New York Jets
- Man, it's a shame the Jags have such a weak overall team (I heard David Garrard is available!) because Jones-Drew had another great performance, going for 4.9 yards per rush against a great defense. Deji Karim, who had a surprisingly high touch-total in week 1, only had 6.
- Beyond MJD, Mike Thomas's 10 targets stand as the only eye-catching stat, though Luke McCown only completed 3 of them.
- Shonn Greene had another disappointing day with a 3.1 rush average, though he added a TD. Another reason he's a good-not-great fantasy RB. LaDainian Tomlinson must have set a career low with a 1.3 average, so it was a systemic problem for the J-E-T-S.
- Dustin Keller jumps off the page, racking up a 6-6 catch/target rate for 101 yards and a TD. I thought he would take a step back with Burress and Mason joing the fray, but those two guys combined for only 4 targets.

Arizona @ Washington
- Kevin Kolb posted another yet unspectacular fantasy day. This team will throw all year - he's surely worth a start in the right matchup (nearly every division game, for instance)
- Beanie Wells had a stellar 6.6 rushing average with a TD, and if you're wondering, his long run was only 25 yards. So he still had an average over 5 past that.
- Fitzgerald again led the team in targets (he'd better) but Andre Roberts took his turn as the #2 guy, targeted 7 times. He only caught 3 but we're seeing Roberts and Doucet are already in a bit of a time-share, depending on the situation.
- Rex Grossman threw 2 picks but had nearly 300 yards and 2 TD to go with them. As odd as it sounds, don't be surprised if he ends the year as a top-12 fantasy QB.
- Tim Hightower had a better average (4.8, 2.9 in week 1) but Roy Helu stole the show. He carried 10 times for 74 yards and showed a burst. I talk about Fantasy Satan all the time - don't be surprised if he steals the reins away from Hightower soon...
- Fred Davis was again the story, catching 6 for 86 and a TD. Cooley was only targeted twice, making me think fantasy owners should stop doubting Davis and add him as a starting TEnow.
- Jabar Gaffney also had 8 targets, catching 5 for 62. As a desperation spot start, he could have a big day against a hobbled Cowboys secondary this Monday night.

Green Bay @ Carolina
- Aaron Rodgers's final numbers looked good, but a lot of them came on one play to Jordy Nelson (84-yard TD). He completed less than one-third of his throws for the first time in awhile and was kept off the field as the defense struggled in the first half.
- James Starks looked like the best RB in The Pack's backfield once again, busting off a 40-yard gain and ending with 85 yards on the ground and 30 yards in the air. I think Ryan Grant should still be owned, but he absolutely can't be started these days.
- Greg Jennings was shut down outside of a 49-yard TD, despite 8 targets. Don't worry, he'll be fine.
- Jermichael Finley was held out of the end zone again, but he had 6 targets, which will normally make him viable and give him ample opportunity to have a big day, especially as teams target wideouts in the red zone and leave the middle open.
- Steve Smith had a ridiculous fumble, but put up a gigantic day with 156 yards for a second straight week. This is why you draft guys with talent but disappointing pasts (Darren McFadden and Dwayne Bowe last year, for instance): They can always explode and recapture brilliance.
- Cam Newton's performance speaks for itself but it will be interesting to see what happens if/when the Panthers dominate the Jags this Sunday. Will he still put the ball up enough to set further rookie records?
- Newton's huge first two weeks have absolutely crushed the running game in Carolina, with both backs combining for only 18 yards (yes, you read that right). Stewart, however, had a staggering 100 yards through the air - I don't even know how to analyze that...
- Also in the receiving corps for Carolina, take note that Brandon LaFell only got 5 targets, as many as Jeremy Shockey and less than Legedu Naanee. Please don't be fooled into thinking he is the clear-cut #2 guy there.
- Lastly, I'm worried by Greg Olsen only getting 1 target (though it went for 34 yards). The Packers did a great job last week against Jimmy Graham until late, so hopefully this is just a system thing.

Dallas @ San Francisco
- Well, apparently Miles Austin is still good (143, 3 TD). He's hurt now, but yeah, he's still capable of winning your matchup every single week. Now Dez Bryant owners are just hoping he can replicate the same feat while Austin misses (reportedly) the next couple weeks.
- Romo basically played an entire game (missed the 3rd quarter but had a huge bomb in OT) and put up 345 yards. I can't see him getting worse - in fact, he may get better as the year progresses.
- That said, I also can't see the Cowboys running game being worse, having averaged 2 yards per carry this week. I suppose if Felix Jones gets going (despite his separated shoulder), it will cut into Romo's numbers.
- I'll make everyone a deal: If Jason Witten ever has less than 5 targets (had almost 3 times that) or finds a way to get into the end zone more than once in a game, I'll let you know. Until then, just assume he's good.
- Ted Ginn got 7 targets to lead the team, but no player had more than 4 catches for the Niners. I just don't think anyone should be started (possibly including Vernon Davis: 2 catches for 18 yards) except Gore.

Cincinnati @ Denver
- To start, Andy Dalton's numbers looked really solid. 2 TDs from over 300 yards passing with over 8 yards per attempt. He isn't ready to make major fantasy contributions yet, but in keeper or deeper leagues, he's worth a pick-up (especially considering he's playing the aforementioned sieve-like Niners secondary next week).
- Dalton's good day was owed mostly to his usage of A.J. Green, a budding star. His 10 catches on a startling 14 targets led to 124 yards and a TD.
- Jerome Simpson, on the other hand, blew up with even more yardage (136) but they came on only 4 catches. However, he did get 9 targets and if Green turns into a rookie star, Simpson will have 1-on-1 matchups often.
- I still don't buy Cedric Benson as anything more than a reliable flex starter or #2 RB in a deeper league. This team will throw (even more as Dalton matures) a lot because they'll most likely be trailing often, and although Benson chipped in 3 catches for 17 yards, he remains a weak passing game threat.
- Kyle Orton basically played as well as Dalton but played from ahead, so wound up with under 200 yards (and 2 TDs). He is a moderate fantasy guy but can be bought relatively low right now and plays against a few struggling secondaries in the coming weeks.
- Willis McGahee did exactly what I expected him to: inspire people to call him the starter in Denver. He was the workhorse, getting 28 carries (nearly impossible to have less than 100 yards with that much work) and scored a TD. With Moreno's injury history, McGahee could/should get more work than Knowshon even when he returns.
- With injuries to Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal, Eric Decker stepped up (as I expected him to). He caught a 52-yard bomb along with 2 TDs on over twice as many targets as any other Bronco (9). Lloyd remains the #1 guy but Decker could certainly take over the role as the season progresses. He should be owned in nearly every league.

Houston @ Miami
- So I guess Arian Foster didn't really need to play, eh? He got a total of 40 yards on 10 touches but Ben Tate held up his end of the bargain, rushing for 103 and catching 4 balls for 32 yards. He's a legit top-10 RB until Arian fully shows he's back.
- Matt Schaub turned in another mediocre performance, only putting up 230 yards but throwing 2 TDs. I worry about how good this Texans team is - if they go something like 12-4 (not saying I think they will, just saying), there's a good chance he's limited in attempts most weeks, pushing him out of the top-12 QBs.
- Andre Johnson remains the only consistent Texans pass catcher, though Owen Daniels pitched in a TD in the first half. He ended with 5 targets, a nice bump from his woeful week 1.
- Chad Henne reverted back to normal even more quickly than expected, completing a horrendous 12 of 30 passes for only 170 yards. It's hard not to think this is closer to "what he is", though secondaries like the Bills and Pats in that division still make him a viable matchup play going forward.
- Of the 170 yards, 79 went to Brandon Marshall. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline combined for 12 targets with only 4 catches for less than 80 yards. Again, it's hard to think these guys will do much going forward, though Bess has a much higher upside and is startable most weeks in PPR.
- The major news-maker here is the Dolphins running game. Daniel Thomas exploded for 117 yards on 19 touches while Reggie Bush was only used on 6 rushes and 1 catch. It's a perplexing line considering week 1's stats, but one worth jumping to a knee-jerk reaction over. Thomas was only moved down draft boards because of a rough preseason... and last time I checked, a regular season performance is a little more important. Thomas is available in some leagues and should not be any longer. He plays Cleveland next week, too. Bush can still take up a spot on your bench but not much more than that.

San Diego @ New England
- Phillip Rivers had a typically good fantasy day and it was (apparently) a typical day for the Pats' pass defense. Whether it's a lack of talent in the back-end or just that teams are given more license to throw as Brady thrashes the opposite end of the field. I would feel comfortable starting nearly any QB against New England for the time being.
- The Tolbert/Mathews thing gets weirder by the week. This week, it was Ryan Mathews taking the reins, chewing up 64 yards on the ground and another 62 receiving. Mike Tolbert still put up decent numbers based on his 8 catches for 73 yards, but his startling 10 yards on 9 carries stands out. I think Tolbert will be fine but may be relegated to a strictly 3rd-down/goal-line role (still a very nice fantasy role) and Mathews will be the early-down/between-the-20's guy. Until he gets hurt...
- Vincent Jackson would like to let you know he's just fine. Yeah, like 172 yards fine. He's still a top-10 WR in my book, no question.
- Antonio Gates, as I'm sure you've heard by now, was completely shut out. I'm not concerned yet - I think it was just the Pats' gameplan. As long as we don't hear anything about an injury this week, I don't worry one little bit.
- The Adrian Peterson rule applies to Tom Brady - you won't hear about him from me unless he is anything less than "Tom Terrific".
- I suppose Benjarvus Green-Ellis proved he's the most ownable RB in New England, but I'm still not a big fan. His 4.1 average and only 1 catch are fine but nothing to get worked up about.
- Deion Branch is probably the most under-hyped WR in fantasy football right now, putting up another big game with 8 catches and 129 yards. He's shockingly available in some leagues and just keeps proving his worth.
- Chad Ochocinco is still a gamble in my book, but he managed more than 1 catch (2 for 45 yards) and should see his opportunities increase a little bit while Aaron Hernandez is down for the next couple weeks.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
- Mike Vick seemed more apt to stay in the pocket (ironically, that's where he got hurt - not running downfield) and played pretty well. His 8.6 yards per attempt were solid but not great and he threw another INT. If he's not running (only 25 yards), I don't think he's a top-5 QB - Watch for that as he comes back from injury.
- LeSean McCoy continues to impress, averaging 5.3 yards per play on 22 touches, scoring twice. Also in the running game, Ronnie Brown continues to underwhelm, busting off one run for 11 yards and 2 runs for -1 yard aside from that. Write it down: Dion Lewis is the guy to get if McCoy goes down (even though Lewis didn't get a touch outside the return game Sunday night).
- Jeremy Maclin, after being nearly shut out in week 1, led the entire league in targets this week (15) and did plenty (172) with them. He proved he's healthy enough, even if he's not consistent, to start every single week.
- DeSean Jackson, meanwhile, only had 3 catches and 21 yards. He's basically a microcosm of the Eagles offense: He could go off at any time and complete win the week for you, but if he's off, he'll put up a stinker...
- Matt Ryan had an odd fantasy night, throwing for only 195 yards on just 60% completions percentage. But he threw 4 TDs despite Michael Turner's solid night - perhaps the perceived shift to more of a passing attack in Atlanta will be felt most in the red zone?...
- Michael Turner showed that he is still a top-10 fantasy RB, but also that the Eagles run defense is as weak as we expected (5.4 yards per carry). Also of note: Jacquizz Rodgers got 3 carries (5.7 per carry) and Jason Snelling didn't touch the ball except for an 8-yard catch. "Quizz" is a sneaky pickup in very deep leagues and could actually be the real handcuff for Burner Turner.
- If you benched Roddy White and/or Julio Jones, you looked relatively smart this weekend, despite Roddy picking up a short TD catch in the 1st quarter. The duo was limited to a sub-50% catch rate (5 catches, 12 targets) and only 52 yards. For all the deficiencies in the run game, the Eagles passing defense looks just about as good as advertised. I think you should sit nearly all WR's other than your absolute studs against Philly until further notice.
- Tony Gonzalez exploited the middle of the field for 7 catches on 9 targets and 2 TD. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if his targets were cut in half next week in a slug-fest against Tampa's cover-2. Tony G is worth having on your roster, but will prove to be up-and-down from a fantasy perspective.

St. Louis @ New York Giants
- I was disappointed to a degree by Sam Bradford's numbers, especially considering the weak Giants secondary (for the record, it is still weak). Though Bradford wound up with a healthy 331 yards through the air, he somehow completed less than 50% of his passes and only punched in 1 TD. His schedule doesn't get any easier as he plays the Ravens this week, so unless you're in a very deep league, I hope you have another option for the short-term while Bradford gets more comfortable with his receivers and the scheme.
- The Rams' rushing attack was inept, with Cadillac Williams leading the way at 13 carries for only 36 yards. This further underscores the importance of Steven Jackson (and goes back to the Eagles' run defense struggling from week 1). Cadillac safely can be dropped in all leagues based on Jackson's expected return to health and upcoming schedule.
- The Rams' receiving for the night was basically split between Mike Sims-Walker and Danario Alexander. MSW was the main possession guy, getting 11 targets (only catching 6 - fine but not great) for 92 yards. Alexander was the big-play guy, 3 catches for a monster 122 yards and a TD. It was great to see Alexander flash his potential, but it's hard for me to think that was anything other than a flash - I can't imagine he's very consistent as a deep threat any time soon. As for MSW, he's owned in about half of leagues and is worth a pickup, but don't expect greatness. He's a very average WR.
- Eli Manning found a way to throw 2 TD but only completed 18 passes for a measly 200 yards. The TDs make for a mediocre fantasy night but I still worry about him. I would struggle to put him anywhere above (roughly) #15 for QBs.
- The running game for the Giants was a bit baffling, as Ahmad Bradshaw surprisingly had to share the workload with Brandon Jacobs (Bradshaw: 15 carries, Jacobs: 16). No surprise that Bradshaw outshone Jacobs, though, as he averaged nearly a yard more per carry and got 5 catches for 45 yards. I'm not too concerned about Bradshaw as we all knew he could have TDs stolen by Jacobs. He will continue to be a top-20 RB and could skyrocket if Jacobs falls out of the picture with injury, etc.
- Hakeem Nicks seemed healthy on his TD catch (and had a spectacular ruled incomplete on the sideline). He wound up only have 3 catches for 15 yards, but again, I'm not super worried. That said, I don't think he's a top-5 WR, more top-10, and he might not be 100% again next week against the vaunted Eagles' pass defense.
- Mario Manningham easily led the team in targets (7) despite not playing a down in the second half. With the new concussion rules, I would be surprised if he played next week, but he definitely has value moving forward. He could be an excellent buy-low candidate.


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