1. Jermichael Finley came alive, scoring 3 times to beat the Bears
2. Torrey Smith came out of nowhere (nowhere = backing up Lee Evans, which won't happen for long) to score 3 TDs... in a single quarter!
3. Then last night, rookie kicker Dan Bailey hit 3 FGs in the first half... and another 3 in the second half!
(Bonus: There have been 33 300-yard passing games so far this season, easily the most in any first 3 weeks. If you haven't adjusted your fantasy philosophy accordingly - do it NOW. These changes are here to stay, folks.)
(Bonus: There have been 33 300-yard passing games so far this season, easily the most in any first 3 weeks. If you haven't adjusted your fantasy philosophy accordingly - do it NOW. These changes are here to stay, folks.)
Coincidence?! I think not! So to continue the theme of "3's", here are the 3 most interesting stats from each of Week 3's games:
New England @ Buffalo
1. I can make a solid argument for Wes Welker as the #1 WR in fantasy football this year. He has rapport with the best QB in football on a team that throws a ton. His ridiculous 20 targets jump off the page - and when's the last time he was shut down? (Not including the game in which his knee exploded)
2. Tom Brady's 4 INTs may look like a big deal, but 3 of them weren't his fault and that is just a product of a team that throws the ball 45 times per game. It also doesn't really matter for fantasy owners - his INTs just let him get the ball back and throw more.
3. Donald Jones had 10 targets, converting them into 101 yards on 5 catches. I don't think he's reliable as a fantasy starter yet, but Fitzpatrick truly is a top-12 QB, it means he's throwing a bunch. David Nelson is more of a possession slot guy, so Jones might just be the big-play guy over the top... and people said the Bills were dumb for trading Lee Evans!
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
1. Andre "Bubba" Caldwell led the game in targets with 12, but only managed 53 yards on 6 catches with them. I wouldn't overreact to much to this unless you're in a deep PPR league. It is, however, a hit to A.J. Green, proving his work will be up-and-down for the majority of the year.
2. The 49ers, after losing Frank Gore and inserting Kendall Hunter, averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry on the ground. To be blunt, I'm very concerned about this running game. I thought Harbaugh would get that young offensive line playing like beasts and they're more like sloths. With Gore banged up, fantasy owners should be very cautious moving forward.
3. Vernon Davis got 9 targets and caught 8 of them for 114 yards and re-established himself as a top-10 TE. The Bengals didn't allow much to the Broncos' mediocre tight ends but did allow a TD to both Evan Moore and Ben Watson in week 1 - something to keep an eye on.
Miami @ Cleveland
1. Daniel Thomas was a workhorse, carrying 23 times for 95 yards, but his long run was only 9 yards. It's hard to tell at this point if that is due to a lack of explosiveness or a lack of opportunity down the field. Regardless, it's nice to see Thomas hold up (so far) with so many touches.
2. Montario Hardesty got 16 touches and converted them for a respectable 86 yards. Of higher value, he didn't fumble and didn't look lost on passing downs, a sign he may get more touches when Hillis is back. I actually think his work load could ease the load enough to actually improve Peyton's value, if not leave it unaffected.
3. For those who thought Evan Moore was a major sleeper at TE (yeah, that's me), Ben Watson's 10 targets are annoying. At this point, Moore is just a lottery play, hoping he gets at least one TD on the day. Watson, however, has been hobbled at points in his career. An injury to him at any point in the season goes a long way toward Moore's value skyrocketing.
Denver @ Tennessee
1. Matt Hasselbeck put the ball up 37 times... in a win! I can't remember a time the Titans threw that much since, maybe, Billy Volek??? Seriously, it's shocking how much this team is throwing, but that has a little to do with CJ2K and the run game struggling...
2. ...Which leads to CJ2K's dreadful rushing line: 13 carries, 21 yards = 1.6 yards/carry average. Wow, this is the guy who rushed for 125 yards per game 2 years ago. I wrote about it in my last post, but he's not himself. Capitalize on this change of philosophy and grab Hasselbeck and Nate Washington if you're in need.
3. Eric Decker got 12 targets, 5 more than #2 on the team - Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd, to me, is not a top-40 WR at this point. I know that sounds drastic but it makes sense when you look at the numbers and the way that offense is playing. Decker, on the other hand, should probably be owned in just about every league (but you might not want to start him in week 4 against the Pack).
Detroit @ Minnesota
1. It's already a beaten, dead horse, but let's re-visit the most alarming stat of this game: 17 carries, Vikings up by 20 at half. Yes, that's the total for Adrian Peterson - not at halftime, at the end of the game. Easily the worst-coached game of this young season. Expect Peterson to absolutely explode next week at the Chiefs.
2. The second-most underused player of this game is, coincidentally, the Vikings' only other legitimate weapon: Percy Harvin. He only had 5 targets (and 2 rushes). One could make the argument that they used him sparingly based on his mid-week illness, but I don't buy it. Terrible coaching - get your best players (and our fantasy players) the ball!
3. Brandon Pettigrew seemed to be healthy enough, I guess! He caught 11 balls on 13 targets as the Lions went to short passing and Calvin over the top (Best was stuffed for only 14 yards on 12 carries). This should be his biggest game for awhile (and keep an eye on the Vikings against TE's, of course), but it serves notice that Pettigrew's 72 catches from last year were no fluke.
Houston @ New Orleans
1. The Texans had 4 Rackers FGs, all from under 40 yards, meaning they were bad in the red zone. Foster owners are hoping his return will drastically help - it's worth noting that Ben Tate has looked much, much better between the 20's and Foster, of course, scored 18 times last year.
2. Matt Schaub had his best fantasy day in quite some time, throwing for 379 and 9.7 yards per attempt with 3 TDs. The Saints secondary gives up big plays and struggles in zone, but I think a lot of that actually is due to Vilma's absence as the defensive captain and play-caller. Expect the Texans to balance things more soon, but that might not be quite as likely as they face the Steelers this week, in another surprisingly good matchup for Schaub.
3. Drew Brees spread the ball around (surprise!), getting 8 or 9 targets to 4 separate guys. The key here, though, is that Lance Moore broke out with 88 yards, a TD, and 2 2-pt conversions. I loved him preseason before his injury, and it looks like he could be a stud in the making.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
1. As I recapped in my predictions review, Vick struggled through the air in this game before leaving. His 23 attempts without a TD and with 1 INT were a concern, compounded by his ailing and injury-prone receiving corps. I will say it again: Unless you play in a league with 4pt TDs, Vick is NOT a top-5 QB. If someone will give you that value in trade, I would jump on it.
2. Eli Manning defied all logic, throwing for 4 TDs on only 16 completions (surprisingly similar to Matt Ryan's line last week, too). I am not liable to panic over the Eagles pass defense, but it's definitely worth noting. It's also worth noting Eli's good game, of course. He looked impressive and is still ownable and startable in a pinch, despite how poor he was in the first two weeks.
3. I suppose I should talk about Victor Cruz, though I would be shocked if his relevance lasted long-term. He had only 3 catches, but converted two for scores and ended with 110 yards. Mario Manningham should be back this week, so don't expect those numbers to continue. The interesting part here is that the Giants have 3 perfectly suited for the outside receiver spots, but nobody to play the slot inside. If any of those guys can learn the slot, his value probably would improve immediately.
Jacksonville @ Carolina
1. I wanted to use the cumulative rainfall as one of the stats in this game, but I'll give you this instead: Cam Newton averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. What does that tell us, other than he played in a tropical storm? It tells us that his team will continue to trust him to throw the ball, even when it's not going well. He'll still struggle, but his status as a top-15 QB seems to be almost locked-in at this point.
2. 5.9 versus 1.8 - the differences in rushing average from Jonathan Stewart to DeAngelo Williams. I can't explain it, but I can point it out: Stewart just looks way, way better than Williams. I suppose you can't start Williams until he shows something or Stewart goes down.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to put up good numbers, despite his team being dreadful. He and Adrian Peterson are silently competing for best player on a terrible team - the difference?: MJD's terrible team at least gives him the ball (24 carries for 122 yards, 45 receiving yards).
New York Jets @ Oakland
1. 3 games down, and 2 of the first 3 #1 RBs (Felix, MJD, McFadden) to face the Raiders have put up over 100 total yards and had solid games. Okay, DMC was a bit more than solid - how does 178 total yards sound?! The Jets face Ray Rice - 3 for 4 sounds like a logical bet at this point.
2. Derrick Mason received the most targets for the Jets with 10, but Dustin Keller was close behind with 9. I think Keller has been overlooked as he is not the most exciting TE and the position is deep, but his top-12 TE status seems to be secured.
3. Michael Bush struggled again, but again was given (you can't even call it "stealing" anymore) a TD. His 8 carries only got 22 yards, though to be fair, that stat is skewed as he only runs in short-yardage. I think he's still worth owning in deeper leagues and even worth a start based on the matchup in very deep leagues. But his real value will be killed as long as DMC is in All-Pro form (read: as long as DMC is healthy).
Baltimore @ St. Louis
1. I already mentioned Torrey Smith, so let's talk about Joe Flacco's incredible line: 27/48 (not great percentage) for a gigantic 389 yards and the 3 TDs. I think the Rams have a lot to do with this, as their pass rush was non-existent, but Flacco certainly showed he's a solid matchup play.
2. I know it doesn't have a lot of relevance this season as he was a top-5 pick in most leagues, but does everyone realize how good Ray Rice is? He got 79 yards rushing - on 8 carries! - and as is his custom, got nearly the same through the air (83 yards). I could make a very compelling case for him being the #1 overall pick next year - I dare you to prove me wrong on that.
3. I wrote about the Rams run game in the previous post, so let's delve into the WRs. Bradford targeted Danario Alexander 8 times but only completed 2 of them and Brandon Gibson and Mike Sims-Walker had ho-hum games with under 100 yards between the two of them. Though Alexander's catch rate looks bad, a lot of it comes down to the high-yardage plays they try to involve him in. He has better athleticism than MSW or Gibson and I like the way the Rams are using him. If you get any of the 3, I think he's the one.
Kansas City @ San Diego
1. Phillip Rivers had a very tame fantasy game - again - but nothing stood out as a major concern. His 7 yards per attempt were "meh" and he threw 2 picks, but the line protected him pretty well and Rivers didn't look completely off. His best games - and rest assured, they will be HUGE - are coming.
2. Ryan Mathews stole the show again, forcing Mike Tolbert owners everywhere to re-stock on booze at halftime of the late games. Of more concern (or jubilation for Mathews owners): His 2 TDs came on runs inside the 10. I still think Tolbert might get the "hot hand" at times this season, but Mathews is one of the more impressive RBs of weeks 2 and 3.
3. Kansas City's offense still stinks, even if Dwayne Bowe had a solid game with 67 yards and a TD. I think McCluster (62 total yards) has some upside, too, but I think it will come later in the season. Dexter is no Jamaal Charles, but if you'd like to draw a comparison, look at the final four game of 2009 for JC (over 600 yards in the last 4 games). McCluster could get more work, but not until the season is officially over - I know, that will be soon for the Chiefs...
Green Bay @ Chicago
1. Matt Forte is officially Brian Westbrook, c. 2005 or so. He somehow almost had a 10-point fantasy day (his lowest total of the year - not bad), despite only having 2 yards on the ground! I find this fascinating, but early warning - catch totals for RBs can vary from year to year, so if the inevitable offensive change happens in Chicago, Forte may not be able to rely on catches for his fantasy value. He'll probably just be a boring ol' 1200 rushing yards guy... (yawn). Okay, I'm kidding, but not on the catch-total thing.
2. Finley stole the headlines but Greg Jennings was great again in this game. He is the rare guy who will always get enough looks to consistently score in a high-octane, spread the ball around offense.
3. The RB split in Green Bay got interesting all of a sudden, as Ryan Grant busted off 92 yards on the ground. I don't think he's as explosive as Starks, but it's worth noting (and grumbling about, if you own Starks). Grant looks to steal time all season, but not this week - reports came out saying Grant's bruised kidney will keep him out against the Broncos in week 4.
Arizona @ Seattle
1. I think this game is the sole reason I procrastinated posting this until Thursday - what a disgusting fantasy matchup. The two QBs combined to go 43/70 for 423 yards, 1 TD (on a "500"-type jump ball from Kolb) and 3 INT. Frame of reference: 8 different QB came within 60 yards of that total - by themselves. Kolb isn't quite that bad - tough division/road game - but Tarvaris is.
2. Marshawn Lynch ran for 73 yards, but please don't think we should be impressed yet. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry against a porous Cardinals defense.
3. I suppose I should mention Sidney Rice, who got 8 catches for over 100 yards on 10 targets. He certainly has potential if he has double-digit targets each game, but it's just very hard to rely on Tarvaris. You can't get Rice cheaply right now based on this game and it figures to be his best for at least a few weeks. I would stay away.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
1. Josh Freeman was dreadful, plain and simple. At least the numbers say so. His 180 yards, no TDs, and 2 INTs make him look a whole lot more like a "droppable" QB than a guy taken in the top-12 of his position. I don't think it's panic time quite yet, but you'd better be able to keep him on your bench for awhile while he works out his issues if you have him.
2. Roddy White got 17 targets (and had 2 drops) for 140 yards, even on a day in which Julio Jones got 6 catches for 115 yards. It's doubtful the Falcons have another game with Michael Turner gaining only 20 yards on the ground, but even in shootouts, it's apparent Roddy White won't have to worry about Jones cutting into his numbers. Also of note: Jones' number were all put up against Aqib Talib, the Bucs top CB.
3. The offensive line of the Falcons is in disarray (or are trying to have Matt Ryan killed). They managed only 2 yards per carry on the ground and allowed 7 sacks. If this unit doesn't improve very soon, Michael Turner and Matt Ryan take a major step backward in the fantasy rankings.
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
1. Talk about ridiculously bad offensive lines... the Steelers gave up 4 sacks, two of which caused fumbles Big Ben lost. More disturbingly, the line could only "help" Rashard Mendenhall gain 37 yards on 18 carries, a 2.1 clip. I didn't like Mendenhall coming into the season, but that was based mostly on work load and injury risk. If the weak Colts run defense does this to the Steelers, can we really expect top-15 RB numbers for Mendenall going forward?
2. Lost in the debacle of the offensive line is the fact that Antonio Brown actually led the Steelers in targets for the game (8). He only caught 4 but averaged 21 yards per catch. His big-play ability fits in well with Ben's scrambling and Hines Ward is not a concern to leech off Brown's numbers too much. Emmanuel Sanders (and the surprising 5-catch performance of Heath Miller) present an obstacle to Brown's upside, but he's worth a look in most leagues.
3. The Colts were "forced" to go with Curtis Painter, but neither QB is the story for the Colts in this game. Joseph Addai, the potential Fantasy Zombie, gashed the 86 yards and a TD (5.1 yards per carry). It's hard to tell if this has to do with a fall from grace for the Steelers run defense, but Addai definitely looked strong and quick. If Painter takes over the reins and can just keep the team from imploding, the Colts run game may actually be worth a gamble. It also signifies a potential breakout for Delone Carter when Addai inevitably gets banged up.
Washington @ Dallas
1. Well, the bloom is off the rose for Sexy Rexy Grossman. His sub-60% completions and mere 255 yards brought him back down to Earth, but this whole game was a defensive struggle. The Skins play the pass defense plagued Rams this week and I expect to see Rex's completions and yardage go up, along with the love for the TEs Fred Davis and Chris Cooley.
2. Felix Jones came alive despite his shoulder injury and went for 115 on the ground and another 40 through the air. He (like all his teammates) failed to get in the end zone but the result is encouraging, especially in a defensive game. I still think he's a high-upside RB, probably in the top-20 still. The shoulder could linger, but as long as he plays, it's obvious he's still effective. He may even be a buy-low candidate if his owner is worried about him being banged up.
3. Dez Bryant only got 4 targets in this game, but don't expect the same next week. The 'Boys have shown they will be cautious with his injuries - I don't think it was part of the game plan to use him as a decoy as they try to force-feed the ball to Kevin Ogletree and Laurent Robinson. He plays against a weak secondary next week, despite the Lions overall strong defense. The Lions should also put up points, meaning it would not surprise me if Bryant tripled his targets in week 4. Buy him NOW if you can.
New England @ Buffalo
1. I can make a solid argument for Wes Welker as the #1 WR in fantasy football this year. He has rapport with the best QB in football on a team that throws a ton. His ridiculous 20 targets jump off the page - and when's the last time he was shut down? (Not including the game in which his knee exploded)
2. Tom Brady's 4 INTs may look like a big deal, but 3 of them weren't his fault and that is just a product of a team that throws the ball 45 times per game. It also doesn't really matter for fantasy owners - his INTs just let him get the ball back and throw more.
3. Donald Jones had 10 targets, converting them into 101 yards on 5 catches. I don't think he's reliable as a fantasy starter yet, but Fitzpatrick truly is a top-12 QB, it means he's throwing a bunch. David Nelson is more of a possession slot guy, so Jones might just be the big-play guy over the top... and people said the Bills were dumb for trading Lee Evans!
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
1. Andre "Bubba" Caldwell led the game in targets with 12, but only managed 53 yards on 6 catches with them. I wouldn't overreact to much to this unless you're in a deep PPR league. It is, however, a hit to A.J. Green, proving his work will be up-and-down for the majority of the year.
2. The 49ers, after losing Frank Gore and inserting Kendall Hunter, averaged a puny 1.7 yards per carry on the ground. To be blunt, I'm very concerned about this running game. I thought Harbaugh would get that young offensive line playing like beasts and they're more like sloths. With Gore banged up, fantasy owners should be very cautious moving forward.
3. Vernon Davis got 9 targets and caught 8 of them for 114 yards and re-established himself as a top-10 TE. The Bengals didn't allow much to the Broncos' mediocre tight ends but did allow a TD to both Evan Moore and Ben Watson in week 1 - something to keep an eye on.
Miami @ Cleveland
1. Daniel Thomas was a workhorse, carrying 23 times for 95 yards, but his long run was only 9 yards. It's hard to tell at this point if that is due to a lack of explosiveness or a lack of opportunity down the field. Regardless, it's nice to see Thomas hold up (so far) with so many touches.
2. Montario Hardesty got 16 touches and converted them for a respectable 86 yards. Of higher value, he didn't fumble and didn't look lost on passing downs, a sign he may get more touches when Hillis is back. I actually think his work load could ease the load enough to actually improve Peyton's value, if not leave it unaffected.
3. For those who thought Evan Moore was a major sleeper at TE (yeah, that's me), Ben Watson's 10 targets are annoying. At this point, Moore is just a lottery play, hoping he gets at least one TD on the day. Watson, however, has been hobbled at points in his career. An injury to him at any point in the season goes a long way toward Moore's value skyrocketing.
Denver @ Tennessee
1. Matt Hasselbeck put the ball up 37 times... in a win! I can't remember a time the Titans threw that much since, maybe, Billy Volek??? Seriously, it's shocking how much this team is throwing, but that has a little to do with CJ2K and the run game struggling...
2. ...Which leads to CJ2K's dreadful rushing line: 13 carries, 21 yards = 1.6 yards/carry average. Wow, this is the guy who rushed for 125 yards per game 2 years ago. I wrote about it in my last post, but he's not himself. Capitalize on this change of philosophy and grab Hasselbeck and Nate Washington if you're in need.
3. Eric Decker got 12 targets, 5 more than #2 on the team - Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd, to me, is not a top-40 WR at this point. I know that sounds drastic but it makes sense when you look at the numbers and the way that offense is playing. Decker, on the other hand, should probably be owned in just about every league (but you might not want to start him in week 4 against the Pack).
Detroit @ Minnesota
1. It's already a beaten, dead horse, but let's re-visit the most alarming stat of this game: 17 carries, Vikings up by 20 at half. Yes, that's the total for Adrian Peterson - not at halftime, at the end of the game. Easily the worst-coached game of this young season. Expect Peterson to absolutely explode next week at the Chiefs.
2. The second-most underused player of this game is, coincidentally, the Vikings' only other legitimate weapon: Percy Harvin. He only had 5 targets (and 2 rushes). One could make the argument that they used him sparingly based on his mid-week illness, but I don't buy it. Terrible coaching - get your best players (and our fantasy players) the ball!
3. Brandon Pettigrew seemed to be healthy enough, I guess! He caught 11 balls on 13 targets as the Lions went to short passing and Calvin over the top (Best was stuffed for only 14 yards on 12 carries). This should be his biggest game for awhile (and keep an eye on the Vikings against TE's, of course), but it serves notice that Pettigrew's 72 catches from last year were no fluke.
Houston @ New Orleans
1. The Texans had 4 Rackers FGs, all from under 40 yards, meaning they were bad in the red zone. Foster owners are hoping his return will drastically help - it's worth noting that Ben Tate has looked much, much better between the 20's and Foster, of course, scored 18 times last year.
2. Matt Schaub had his best fantasy day in quite some time, throwing for 379 and 9.7 yards per attempt with 3 TDs. The Saints secondary gives up big plays and struggles in zone, but I think a lot of that actually is due to Vilma's absence as the defensive captain and play-caller. Expect the Texans to balance things more soon, but that might not be quite as likely as they face the Steelers this week, in another surprisingly good matchup for Schaub.
3. Drew Brees spread the ball around (surprise!), getting 8 or 9 targets to 4 separate guys. The key here, though, is that Lance Moore broke out with 88 yards, a TD, and 2 2-pt conversions. I loved him preseason before his injury, and it looks like he could be a stud in the making.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
1. As I recapped in my predictions review, Vick struggled through the air in this game before leaving. His 23 attempts without a TD and with 1 INT were a concern, compounded by his ailing and injury-prone receiving corps. I will say it again: Unless you play in a league with 4pt TDs, Vick is NOT a top-5 QB. If someone will give you that value in trade, I would jump on it.
2. Eli Manning defied all logic, throwing for 4 TDs on only 16 completions (surprisingly similar to Matt Ryan's line last week, too). I am not liable to panic over the Eagles pass defense, but it's definitely worth noting. It's also worth noting Eli's good game, of course. He looked impressive and is still ownable and startable in a pinch, despite how poor he was in the first two weeks.
3. I suppose I should talk about Victor Cruz, though I would be shocked if his relevance lasted long-term. He had only 3 catches, but converted two for scores and ended with 110 yards. Mario Manningham should be back this week, so don't expect those numbers to continue. The interesting part here is that the Giants have 3 perfectly suited for the outside receiver spots, but nobody to play the slot inside. If any of those guys can learn the slot, his value probably would improve immediately.
Jacksonville @ Carolina
1. I wanted to use the cumulative rainfall as one of the stats in this game, but I'll give you this instead: Cam Newton averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. What does that tell us, other than he played in a tropical storm? It tells us that his team will continue to trust him to throw the ball, even when it's not going well. He'll still struggle, but his status as a top-15 QB seems to be almost locked-in at this point.
2. 5.9 versus 1.8 - the differences in rushing average from Jonathan Stewart to DeAngelo Williams. I can't explain it, but I can point it out: Stewart just looks way, way better than Williams. I suppose you can't start Williams until he shows something or Stewart goes down.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to put up good numbers, despite his team being dreadful. He and Adrian Peterson are silently competing for best player on a terrible team - the difference?: MJD's terrible team at least gives him the ball (24 carries for 122 yards, 45 receiving yards).
New York Jets @ Oakland
1. 3 games down, and 2 of the first 3 #1 RBs (Felix, MJD, McFadden) to face the Raiders have put up over 100 total yards and had solid games. Okay, DMC was a bit more than solid - how does 178 total yards sound?! The Jets face Ray Rice - 3 for 4 sounds like a logical bet at this point.
2. Derrick Mason received the most targets for the Jets with 10, but Dustin Keller was close behind with 9. I think Keller has been overlooked as he is not the most exciting TE and the position is deep, but his top-12 TE status seems to be secured.
3. Michael Bush struggled again, but again was given (you can't even call it "stealing" anymore) a TD. His 8 carries only got 22 yards, though to be fair, that stat is skewed as he only runs in short-yardage. I think he's still worth owning in deeper leagues and even worth a start based on the matchup in very deep leagues. But his real value will be killed as long as DMC is in All-Pro form (read: as long as DMC is healthy).
Baltimore @ St. Louis
1. I already mentioned Torrey Smith, so let's talk about Joe Flacco's incredible line: 27/48 (not great percentage) for a gigantic 389 yards and the 3 TDs. I think the Rams have a lot to do with this, as their pass rush was non-existent, but Flacco certainly showed he's a solid matchup play.
2. I know it doesn't have a lot of relevance this season as he was a top-5 pick in most leagues, but does everyone realize how good Ray Rice is? He got 79 yards rushing - on 8 carries! - and as is his custom, got nearly the same through the air (83 yards). I could make a very compelling case for him being the #1 overall pick next year - I dare you to prove me wrong on that.
3. I wrote about the Rams run game in the previous post, so let's delve into the WRs. Bradford targeted Danario Alexander 8 times but only completed 2 of them and Brandon Gibson and Mike Sims-Walker had ho-hum games with under 100 yards between the two of them. Though Alexander's catch rate looks bad, a lot of it comes down to the high-yardage plays they try to involve him in. He has better athleticism than MSW or Gibson and I like the way the Rams are using him. If you get any of the 3, I think he's the one.
Kansas City @ San Diego
1. Phillip Rivers had a very tame fantasy game - again - but nothing stood out as a major concern. His 7 yards per attempt were "meh" and he threw 2 picks, but the line protected him pretty well and Rivers didn't look completely off. His best games - and rest assured, they will be HUGE - are coming.
2. Ryan Mathews stole the show again, forcing Mike Tolbert owners everywhere to re-stock on booze at halftime of the late games. Of more concern (or jubilation for Mathews owners): His 2 TDs came on runs inside the 10. I still think Tolbert might get the "hot hand" at times this season, but Mathews is one of the more impressive RBs of weeks 2 and 3.
3. Kansas City's offense still stinks, even if Dwayne Bowe had a solid game with 67 yards and a TD. I think McCluster (62 total yards) has some upside, too, but I think it will come later in the season. Dexter is no Jamaal Charles, but if you'd like to draw a comparison, look at the final four game of 2009 for JC (over 600 yards in the last 4 games). McCluster could get more work, but not until the season is officially over - I know, that will be soon for the Chiefs...
Green Bay @ Chicago
1. Matt Forte is officially Brian Westbrook, c. 2005 or so. He somehow almost had a 10-point fantasy day (his lowest total of the year - not bad), despite only having 2 yards on the ground! I find this fascinating, but early warning - catch totals for RBs can vary from year to year, so if the inevitable offensive change happens in Chicago, Forte may not be able to rely on catches for his fantasy value. He'll probably just be a boring ol' 1200 rushing yards guy... (yawn). Okay, I'm kidding, but not on the catch-total thing.
2. Finley stole the headlines but Greg Jennings was great again in this game. He is the rare guy who will always get enough looks to consistently score in a high-octane, spread the ball around offense.
3. The RB split in Green Bay got interesting all of a sudden, as Ryan Grant busted off 92 yards on the ground. I don't think he's as explosive as Starks, but it's worth noting (and grumbling about, if you own Starks). Grant looks to steal time all season, but not this week - reports came out saying Grant's bruised kidney will keep him out against the Broncos in week 4.
Arizona @ Seattle
1. I think this game is the sole reason I procrastinated posting this until Thursday - what a disgusting fantasy matchup. The two QBs combined to go 43/70 for 423 yards, 1 TD (on a "500"-type jump ball from Kolb) and 3 INT. Frame of reference: 8 different QB came within 60 yards of that total - by themselves. Kolb isn't quite that bad - tough division/road game - but Tarvaris is.
2. Marshawn Lynch ran for 73 yards, but please don't think we should be impressed yet. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry against a porous Cardinals defense.
3. I suppose I should mention Sidney Rice, who got 8 catches for over 100 yards on 10 targets. He certainly has potential if he has double-digit targets each game, but it's just very hard to rely on Tarvaris. You can't get Rice cheaply right now based on this game and it figures to be his best for at least a few weeks. I would stay away.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
1. Josh Freeman was dreadful, plain and simple. At least the numbers say so. His 180 yards, no TDs, and 2 INTs make him look a whole lot more like a "droppable" QB than a guy taken in the top-12 of his position. I don't think it's panic time quite yet, but you'd better be able to keep him on your bench for awhile while he works out his issues if you have him.
2. Roddy White got 17 targets (and had 2 drops) for 140 yards, even on a day in which Julio Jones got 6 catches for 115 yards. It's doubtful the Falcons have another game with Michael Turner gaining only 20 yards on the ground, but even in shootouts, it's apparent Roddy White won't have to worry about Jones cutting into his numbers. Also of note: Jones' number were all put up against Aqib Talib, the Bucs top CB.
3. The offensive line of the Falcons is in disarray (or are trying to have Matt Ryan killed). They managed only 2 yards per carry on the ground and allowed 7 sacks. If this unit doesn't improve very soon, Michael Turner and Matt Ryan take a major step backward in the fantasy rankings.
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
1. Talk about ridiculously bad offensive lines... the Steelers gave up 4 sacks, two of which caused fumbles Big Ben lost. More disturbingly, the line could only "help" Rashard Mendenhall gain 37 yards on 18 carries, a 2.1 clip. I didn't like Mendenhall coming into the season, but that was based mostly on work load and injury risk. If the weak Colts run defense does this to the Steelers, can we really expect top-15 RB numbers for Mendenall going forward?
2. Lost in the debacle of the offensive line is the fact that Antonio Brown actually led the Steelers in targets for the game (8). He only caught 4 but averaged 21 yards per catch. His big-play ability fits in well with Ben's scrambling and Hines Ward is not a concern to leech off Brown's numbers too much. Emmanuel Sanders (and the surprising 5-catch performance of Heath Miller) present an obstacle to Brown's upside, but he's worth a look in most leagues.
3. The Colts were "forced" to go with Curtis Painter, but neither QB is the story for the Colts in this game. Joseph Addai, the potential Fantasy Zombie, gashed the 86 yards and a TD (5.1 yards per carry). It's hard to tell if this has to do with a fall from grace for the Steelers run defense, but Addai definitely looked strong and quick. If Painter takes over the reins and can just keep the team from imploding, the Colts run game may actually be worth a gamble. It also signifies a potential breakout for Delone Carter when Addai inevitably gets banged up.
Washington @ Dallas
1. Well, the bloom is off the rose for Sexy Rexy Grossman. His sub-60% completions and mere 255 yards brought him back down to Earth, but this whole game was a defensive struggle. The Skins play the pass defense plagued Rams this week and I expect to see Rex's completions and yardage go up, along with the love for the TEs Fred Davis and Chris Cooley.
2. Felix Jones came alive despite his shoulder injury and went for 115 on the ground and another 40 through the air. He (like all his teammates) failed to get in the end zone but the result is encouraging, especially in a defensive game. I still think he's a high-upside RB, probably in the top-20 still. The shoulder could linger, but as long as he plays, it's obvious he's still effective. He may even be a buy-low candidate if his owner is worried about him being banged up.
3. Dez Bryant only got 4 targets in this game, but don't expect the same next week. The 'Boys have shown they will be cautious with his injuries - I don't think it was part of the game plan to use him as a decoy as they try to force-feed the ball to Kevin Ogletree and Laurent Robinson. He plays against a weak secondary next week, despite the Lions overall strong defense. The Lions should also put up points, meaning it would not surprise me if Bryant tripled his targets in week 4. Buy him NOW if you can.
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